June 2021

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

We are in new territory with the magnitude of these simultaneous PACNW and NE ridge amplifications. The PACNW and SW Canada  have all-time heat and 500mb heights. The 500mb heights for us are near the highest for the month of June. Pretty extreme to be happening at the same time. 

 

yeah but these bigger wars dont mean record heat for us, not like we saw in the 90s and early 10s.

so it's pretty much all academic.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, forkyfork said:

still, it's kind of unsettling to see this so early. the war climo peak is late july through mid august 

meh I've seen far hotter summers than what we've had lately

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, uncle W said:

there were a lot of summers with cool endings growing up in the 1960's...1963 had three torrid heat waves with the last one coming in late July...August and September 63 was one of the coolest on record...the year before in 1962 had a much cooler second half of Summer...recent years have seen summer hold on till mid September...

1966!  I think you said that was extreme only for June and July?

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A very warm and humid air mass now covers the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Under partly sunny skies, temperatures could approach or reach 90° in parts of the region tomorrow. A shower or thundershower is possible. The warmth will continue through at least mid-week next week.

Meanwhile, out West a historic, if not unprecedented heat event, is now underway. The ongoing epic heatwave in the Pacific Northwest fried numerous June monthly records. Preliminary high temperatures included:

Eugene, OR: 103° (old record: 99°, 2015) ***New June Record***
Kamloops, BC: 103° (old record: 101°, 2006) ***New June Record***
Lillooet, BC: 109° (old record: 98°, 2002) ***New All-Time Record***
Lytton, BC: 111° (old record: 104°, 2006) ***New All-Time Record***
Portland: 108° (old record: 102°, 2006) ***New All-Time Record***
Seattle: 102° (old record: 90°, 2006) ***New June Record***
The Dalles, OR: 110° (old record: 103°, 2017) ***Tied June Record***
Vancouver: 87° (old record: 86°, 2002) ***New June Record***
Victoria, BC: 95° (old record: 85°, 2002) ***New June Record for the 2nd Consecutive Day***
Yakima, WA: 104° (tied record set in 2015)

This heatwave will further intensify tomorrow. Numerous all-time high temperature records will likely be smashed, some by large margins. After Monday, the core of the heat will shift somewhat to the north and east. Readings will remain much above normal in parts of eastern Washington State, Oregon, Idaho, and eastern British Columbia.

Records for select cities:

Kamloops, BC:
June 27: 99° (37.1°C), 2006
June 28: 100° (37.7°C), 2008
June 29: 102° (39.1°C), 2008

June record: 103° (39.5°C)
All-time record: 105° (40.8°C)

Portland:
June 27: 98°, 2000
June 28: 100°, 2008
June 29: 97°, 1951

June record: 108°
All-time record: 108°

Seattle:
June 27: 92°, 2015
June 28: 91°, 1995 and 2008
June 29: 93°, 1987

June record: 101°
All-time record: 103°

Spokane:
June 27: 102°, 2015
June 28: 105°, 2015
June 29: 98°, 1939

June record: 105°
All-time record: 108°

Climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. Further increases are likely in coming decades as the world's climate continues to warm.

During the 1971-00 period, there was a statistical 0.9% probability that the temperature would reach or exceed 90° during June 26-28. For the 1991-20 period, that figure had increased to 2.0%. That's an implied 55% increase tied to climate change. Actual outcomes saw Seattle record 90° temperatures on 1.1% of days within that period during 1971-00 and 4.4% during the 1991-20 timeframe. For Portland, the statistical probability of a 90° day during the June 26-28 period was 6.2% during the 1971-00 period and 10.4% during the 1991-20 period. That's an implied 40% increase tied to climate change. The actual outcomes were 6.6% during the 1971-00 period and 12.2% during the 1991-20 period. That actual outcomes exceeded statistical outcomes is consistent with ongoing warming.   

In large part on account of Phoenix's recent extreme heat event, there is an implied 89% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature near 95.0°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around June 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +5.83 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.456 today.

On June 24 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.308 (RMM). The June 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.532 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.0° (2.0° above normal).

 

wow it was 102 in Seattle today?  The weather channel may be right about 107 there tomorrow and 111 on Monday, looks like the NWS underestimated the heat there

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, nycwinter said:

a dry heat...

a dry heat at 101 is AMAZING!  we had it on July 4th in 2010.  at 110 its not as amazing

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, RippleEffect said:

I hope we don’t hit 100, that’s just disgusting. Why can’t we be happy with 85 and dry

because thats boring, I'd rather have 105 and dry

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Rjay said:

If it's 95 it might as well be 105.

exactly, who likes boring weather?

 

[RippleEffect]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

because thats boring, I'd rather have 105 and dry

 

Yes 105 and dry would be okay I’ve been to Phoenix at 120 and dry and it’s bad but not nearly as bad as 100 and humid!

[LibertyBell]

Just now, RippleEffect said:

Yes 105 and dry would be okay I’ve been to Phoenix at 120 and dry and it’s bad but not nearly as bad as 100 and humid!

Yeah there's a tipping point around 110 where even dry heat becomes painful.  100-105 and dry actually feels a lot better than even 80 and very humid.  Like 80 with 100% humidity is a lot worse than say 100 with 20% humidity.

 

[CIK62]

The last 4 days of June are averaging 86degs.(75/98), or +11.0.

Month to date is  72.7[+1.2].       June should end at  74.5[+2.5].

GFS is all 90's+, except for July Fourth WE rainout, these next 16 days.

Missed rain at 3pm yesterday.    SI must have had a lot and into northern Brooklyn too, as rain shield missed me.

71*(95%RH) here at 6am, overcast, disgusting.          Reached 86*.

[wdrag]

 

Several (June 26 and now the 27th) GFS op cycles of 4+ are on the table, though the 3+ on the12z/26  EC has waned in it's 00z/27 cycle, since it's drying us out July 3-5.  HOWEVER,  this becomes interesting for me since both 00z/27 ensembles are taking the the Great Lakes trough and trying to keep it pretty strong in the upper Ohio Valley-across PA on the 3rd and then eastward thereafter.  Suggests to me the front hangs up around here with a shot of WAA heavy showers/embedded thunder July 3 and possibly 4, before it all goes dry for several days.  Where would that occur?  S of I80, I80 or north.  My guess is south of I80 across NJ but???

So, continuing the unscientific cut of the GFS op run max qpf in half, I still think there' is a good chance of 4+ somewhere in our forum. Not too hard to come by, with one 3 hour merging cluster of Tstorms any of these days this coming week

Uncertainty exists where persistence of high PW will occur between June 28th-July 4. PW, almost throughout that period is still ~ 1.8" or above near NYC through July 2nd...  and Thickness near 576 with weak boundaries, suggests to me some big storms (damaging wet downbursts) coming in the high CAPE air this coming week.

Dates and where??  Appears to me Wed June 30 and or Thu July 1 are candidates for severe outlooks here...enough wind aloft combined with currently modeled big Cape/PW/KI.  Isolated SVR cant be ruled out Mon (June 28) and Tue (June 29) in the big Cape north of I80 but wind aloft is weak...which would favor thunderstorm generated very narrow swaths of big rain but not necessarily svr.

To me: Seems hard to miss big storms that are capable of producing localized FF and/or wind damage mid or end of the week.  

No topic from myself because while it might be a little early in the summer, I just look at background thicknesses in the dead of summer (not looking at climo) and consider this within the norm. IF it becomes evident that we can have storms gain attention of a sizable percent of our forum (SPC OUTLOOK), then will generate a topic (possibly encompassing two or 3 days) but for now - just monitoring cyclicly.  

This Sunday afternoon and evening: latest 06z-08z/27 HRRR and RGEM have nothing while 00z-6z/27 EC/FV3/GFS/HRDPS have notable storms ne PA leaking into nw NJ.  

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

It will be variably cloudy and very warm. There could be an afternoon shower or thundershower. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most places today.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 88°

Newark: 93°

Philadelphia: 91°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 82.9°; 15-Year: 83.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 85.3°; 15-Year: 85.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.4°; 15-Year: 86.7°

Tomorrow will be even warmer.

Yesterday, Lytton, BC set an all-time record high temperature of 111°, which also set a new record for Canada’s highest-ever June temperature. Today, Seattle and Portland will likely set new all-time high temperature records.

Daily Records for June 26:

Portland: 98°, 2000 (Forecast: 108° to 120°)

Seattle: 92°, 2015 (Forecast: 99° to 109°) 

*-Forecast range is 1 sigma below and above the forecast mean.

[SACRUS]

Season of the Western Atlantic Ridge commencing.  The heat is on and humidity.  Florida weather for the next 5 days Sun (6/27) - Thu (7/1).  Pop showers and rain could out some heavy amounts scattered around the area over  the next 5 days.  Look for sun showers too.  But while sunny temps low to mid 90s and perhaps upper 90s in the warmer spots.  Dewpoints in the low 70s or higher should yield lows in the upper 70s and 80s in LGA, NYC, JFK potentialluy.  Winds will be mainly S-SW. 

GFS and ECM now a bit more aligned as the W Atlantic Ridge pushes east with subsequent front in the 7/2 - 7/4 period.  Right now both clear the area by late on  Saturday (7/3) and allow for a mainly dry warm/nice Jul 4th.

 

Beynond there heights resume to build as ridging builds back into the East coast and we may be soaring again with heat and humidity by the 8th.  Overall warm to hot but plenty of precip mixed in between.

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The last 4 days of June are averaging 86degs.(75/98), or +11.0.

Month to date is  72.7[+1.2].       June should end at  74.5[+2.5].

GFS is all 90's+, except for July Fourth WE rainout, these next 16 days.

Missed rain at 3pm yesterday.    SI must have had a lot and into northern Brooklyn too, as rain sheild missed me.

71*(95%RH) here at 6am, overcast, disgusting.

All 90s?

[SACRUS]

3 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

All 90s?

Likely a break from 90s 7/2 - 7/6

[SACRUS]

Low level clouds burning off now.  78/72 here should be a fast rise once we get into the sun.

 

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

 

[SnoSki14]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

because thats boring, I'd rather have 105 and dry

 

Heat without storms is boring. Same with cold without snow. 

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

 

Several (June 26 and now the 27th) GFS op cycles of 4+ are on the table, though the 3+ on the12z/26  EC has waned in it's 00z/27 cycle, since it's drying us out July 3-5.  HOWEVER,  this becomes interesting for me since both 00z/27 ensembles are taking the the Great Lakes trough and trying to keep it pretty strong in the upper Ohio Valley-across PA on the 3rd and then eastward thereafter.  Suggests to me the front hangs up around here with a shot of WAA heavy showers/embedded thunder July 3 and possibly 4, before it all goes dry for several days.  Where would that occur?  S of I80, I80 or north.  My guess is south of I80 across NJ but???

So, continuing the unscientific cut of the GFS op run max qpf in half, I still think there' is a good chance of 4+ somewhere in our forum. Not too hard to come by, with one 3 hour merging cluster of Tstorms any of these days this coming week

Uncertainty exists where persistence of high PW will occur between June 28th-July 4. PW, almost throughout that period is still ~ 1.8" or above near NYC through July 2nd...  and Thickness near 576 with weak boundaries, suggests to me some big storms (damaging wet downbursts) coming in the high CAPE air this coming week.

Dates and where??  Appears to me Wed June 30 and or Thu July 1 are candidates for severe outlooks here...enough wind aloft combined with currently modeled big Cape/PW/KI.  Isolated SVR cant be ruled out Mon (June 28) and Tue (June 29) in the big Cape north of I80 but wind aloft is weak...which would favor thunderstorm generated very narrow swaths of big rain but not necessarily svr.

To me: Seems hard to miss big storms that are capable of producing localized FF and/or wind damage mid or end of the week.  

No topic from myself because while it might be a little early in the summer, I just look at background thicknesses in the dead of summer (not looking at climo) and consider this within the norm. IF it becomes evident that we can have storms gain attention of a sizable percent of our forum (SPC OUTLOOK), then will generate a topic (possibly encompassing two or 3 days) but for now - just monitoring cyclicly.  

This Sunday afternoon and evening: latest 06z-08z/27 HRRR and RGEM have nothing while 00z-6z/27 EC/FV3/GFS/HRDPS have notable storms ne PA leaking into nw NJ.  

Between the pop up deluges and the slow front (7/2 - 7/3) could see some hefty totals by 7/4.  

[uncle W]

if its hot and humid enough to run the AC it don't matter how hot or humid it is outside unless you pay the electric bill...

[Rtd208]

Current temp 80/DP 72/RH 79%

[SACRUS]

1966 was blazing away on this date with more 100s around the city and NJ

101 in EWR 

[crossbowftw3]

80/71 here. Sun is fully out so fixing to take off soon. Forecast high is 90 but wouldn’t be shocked if we end 3-4 degrees warmer.

no reason to go outside anyway since I got a nice sunburn across my arms yesterday 

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Low level clouds burning off now.  78/72 here should be a fast rise once we get into the sun.

 

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

 

Lots of high clouds on that image as well

[uncle W]

51 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

1966 was blazing away on this date with more 100s around the city and NJ

101 in EWR 

1966 and 2010 were blazing hot summers followed by historic winters...throw in 1977 and a few others...

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Heat without storms is boring. Same with cold without snow. 

You have to remember, unless you want a sticky insane Florida like climate, you cant have storms every day.  Record heat for 2 weeks followed by a big storm outbreak is the best of both worlds.  Storms every 2 weeks is fine as long as it's 100 degrees in between.

 

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, uncle W said:

1966 and 2010 were blazing hot summers followed by historic winters...throw in 1977 and a few others...

Yes my favorite patterns.  Moderate summers lead to lackluster winters outside of a few el nino exceptions

 

[LibertyBell]

57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that was the era of low dew point and RH heat with our record drought.

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/nj/newark/KEWR/date/1966-6-27

4:00 PM

100 °F

55 °F

22 %

W

the good old days

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

These record ridges have ushered in an era of over the top heatwaves. Notice how the warmest departures this month have been NW and NE of the Long Island South Shore. Boston is in track for its warmest June on record. Last summer areas from LGA to New England had there warmest summer on record with a similar pattern in 2018. So even though places like JFK miss the top heat with more southerly flow, the real feel with the record dew points makes it feel as hot or hotter than the hottest summer days in the 100s.
 

 

I still find it amazing that LGA was hotter last summer than in 2010 even though they had nearly twice as many 90 degree highs in 2010.  I wonder when we'll have 50-60 90 degree days.

I think you and Don said that within 30 years the excessive heat will overcome the southerly flow and we'll all be hitting 100 multiple times even with a southerly wind?

 

 

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I still find it amazing that LGA was hotter last summer than in 2010 even though they had nearly twice as many 90 degree highs in 2010.  I wonder when we'll have 50-60 90 degree days.

I think you and Don said that within 30 years the excessive heat will overcome the southerly flow and we'll all be hitting 100 multiple times even with a southerly wind?

 

 

The average high temperature last summer at LGA just edged ahead of 2010 by a few tenths of a degree.  LGA did better in 95°and 88° days than 2010. So it was able  to overcome the 90° day deficit.
 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	86.9	0
2	2010	86.7	0
3	2016	86.3	0
4	1994	85.6	0
5	2005	85.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95	Missing Count
1	1955	14	0
2	2020	13	0
-	1999	13	0
3	2012	11	0
4	2010	10	0
-	1995	10	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 88	Missing Count
1	2020	50	0
2	2010	48	0
3	1994	38	0
4	2019	37	0
-	2016	37	0
-	2002	37	0
5	2018	36	0

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Lots of high clouds on that image as well

More breaks now but till plenty of clouds around.  

 

11AM 84 / 73 CNJ.