June 2021

[stemwinder]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Very heavy downpour here that delivered a quick 0.35". A pleasant surprise that I won't have to water the garden this weekend. With only isolated downpours today, I figured I'd have the usual bad luck and get nothing.

We got that brief downpour here in the W Windsor/Princeton area.  About .35 as well.  

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, uncle W said:

how about a pipe line of water from the great lakes to the west...desalination of Ocean water too...

that would be perfect and would fix so many problems.  2021 is I fear going to be beyond anything we've seen before.  We're not going to escape the effects here either, looks like food prices are going to go way up with all this heat and drought out there.

[uncle W]

18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

that would be perfect and would fix so many problems.  2021 is I fear going to be beyond anything we've seen before.  We're not going to escape the effects here either, looks like food prices are going to go way up with all this heat and drought out there.

nothing can be as bad as it was in the mid 1960's...or the 1930's out west...

[weathermedic]

77/73 at my station

[Rtd208]

Current temp 88/DP 75/RH 66% 

[SnoSki14]

4th of July weekend still doesn't look great. Gfs likely too progressive.

[uncle W]

down to 78 after heavy showers...

[Cfa]

Heavy sun showers in Bayonne. Nice to finally see convection.

[doncat]

Couple showers moved thru si.... 0.08 and 0.25 at my two gages. Hi temp of 83°.

[winterwarlock]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 4th of July weekend still looks a bit uncertain as would be expected from a week out. An upper low stalls in the GL and OV while a piece of the WAR tries to hold on. The historic Western Ridge builds over the top and results in high pressure across southern Canada. With a little luck, the slow moving boundary comes through Friday into Saturday rather than the 4th on Sunday. This is the current Euro idea with high pressure pushing the convection south of our area by then.

 

All things considered  look at the forecast for this weekend and early next week 7-8 days ago. 3-5 inches of rain and ark posts last week. I dont put much stock in these 7 day runs which really have been poor the past few months and then change as we get closer

[uncle W]

2 hours ago, uncle W said:

down to 78 after heavy showers...

shot up to 88 now with the Sun out...

[forkyfork]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That was due the models underestimating the strength of the WAR from 7-10 days out. But every WAR amplification is followed by a pulse down. So when this heatwave begins to fade later next week, then the heavy convection chances will come. The big question is how quickly the slow moving front will clear the area. With a little luck, things clear out by the 4th. The best convection chances have followed our late May and early June heatwaves. Even with the remarkable WAR pattern in recent years, there are going to be breaks between major 594 dm + WAR amplifications. We still aren’t too the point of a constant 594dm ridge during the summer

still, it's kind of unsettling to see this so early. the war climo peak is late july through mid august 

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

still, it's kind of unsettling to see this so early. the war climo peak is late july through mid august 

We are in new territory with the magnitude of these simultaneous PACNW and NE ridge amplifications. The PACNW and SW Canada  have all-time heat and 500mb heights. The 500mb heights for us are near the highest for the month of June. Pretty extreme to be happening at the same time. 

 

[nycwinter]

32 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

still, it's kind of unsettling to see this so early. the war climo peak is late july through mid august 

maybe  we will have a cooler end to summer..

[uncle W]

there were a lot of summers with cool endings growing up in the 1960's...1963 had three torrid heat waves with the last one coming in late July...August and September 63 was one of the coolest on record...the year before in 1962 had a much cooler second half of Summer...recent years have seen summer hold on till mid September...

[donsutherland1]

A very warm and humid air mass now covers the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Under partly sunny skies, temperatures could approach or reach 90° in parts of the region tomorrow. A shower or thundershower is possible. The warmth will continue through at least mid-week next week.

Meanwhile, out West a historic, if not unprecedented heat event, is now underway. The ongoing epic heatwave in the Pacific Northwest fried numerous June monthly records. Preliminary high temperatures included:

Eugene, OR: 103° (old record: 99°, 2015) ***New June Record***
Kamloops, BC: 103° (old record: 101°, 2006) ***New June Record***
Lillooet, BC: 109° (old record: 98°, 2002) ***New All-Time Record***
Lytton, BC: 111° (old record: 104°, 2006) ***New All-Time Record***
Portland: 108° (old record: 102°, 2006) ***New All-Time Record***
Seattle: 102° (old record: 90°, 2006) ***New June Record***
The Dalles, OR: 110° (old record: 103°, 2017) ***Tied June Record***
Vancouver: 87° (old record: 86°, 2002) ***New June Record***
Victoria, BC: 95° (old record: 85°, 2002) ***New June Record for the 2nd Consecutive Day***
Yakima, WA: 104° (tied record set in 2015)

This heatwave will further intensify tomorrow. Numerous all-time high temperature records will likely be smashed, some by large margins. After Monday, the core of the heat will shift somewhat to the north and east. Readings will remain much above normal in parts of eastern Washington State, Oregon, Idaho, and eastern British Columbia.

Records for select cities:

Kamloops, BC:
June 27: 99° (37.1°C), 2006
June 28: 100° (37.7°C), 2008
June 29: 102° (39.1°C), 2008

June record: 103° (39.5°C)
All-time record: 105° (40.8°C)

Portland:
June 27: 98°, 2000
June 28: 100°, 2008
June 29: 97°, 1951

June record: 108°
All-time record: 108°

Seattle:
June 27: 92°, 2015
June 28: 91°, 1995 and 2008
June 29: 93°, 1987

June record: 101°
All-time record: 103°

Spokane:
June 27: 102°, 2015
June 28: 105°, 2015
June 29: 98°, 1939

June record: 105°
All-time record: 108°

Climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. Further increases are likely in coming decades as the world's climate continues to warm.

During the 1971-00 period, there was a statistical 0.9% probability that the temperature would reach or exceed 90° during June 26-28. For the 1991-20 period, that figure had increased to 2.0%. That's an implied 55% increase tied to climate change. Actual outcomes saw Seattle record 90° temperatures on 1.1% of days within that period during 1971-00 and 4.4% during the 1991-20 timeframe. For Portland, the statistical probability of a 90° day during the June 26-28 period was 6.2% during the 1971-00 period and 10.4% during the 1991-20 period. That's an implied 40% increase tied to climate change. The actual outcomes were 6.6% during the 1971-00 period and 12.2% during the 1991-20 period. That actual outcomes exceeded statistical outcomes is consistent with ongoing warming.   

In large part on account of Phoenix's recent extreme heat event, there is an implied 89% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature near 95.0°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around June 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +5.83 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.456 today.

On June 24 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.308 (RMM). The June 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.532 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.0° (2.0° above normal).

 

[wdrag]

Obviously depends on persistence for PWAT over our subforum through 8PM July 5,  and so the the several (June 26) GFS op cycles of 4+ and now 3+ on the12z/2e6  EC, may end up too high for a MAX isolated point total.  So lets' unscientifically cut the 7 to 3.5... max total somewhere in the subforum by July 5.... Not too hard to come by within one 3 hours merging cluster of storms.

The uncertainty is where persistence will occur between June 28th-July 4. PWAT, almost throughout that period is 1.8" or above near NYC...  and Thickness near 576 with weak boundaries, suggests to me some big storms (damaging wet downbursts) coming in the high CAPE air this coming week. Dates and where??  Based on what I've seen I am expecting two days of SVR in the subforum this week. Whether extensive or not??  but seems hard to miss big storms that are capable of producing localized FF and/or wind damage.  No topic from myself because while it might be a little early in the summer, I just look at background thicknesses in the dead of summer (not looking at climo) and consider this within the norm. IF it becomes evident that we can have storms gain attention of a sizable percent of our forum, will try to generate a topic but reserved for now - just monitoring cyclicly.  

 

By the way I see NJ did nice today with many 0.1 to 1/4" amounts, even an isolated .49 per data.  GFS convective output has been offering this for quite a while and even the conservative EC.

 

Worthy of monitoring GFS convective output in the subforum, especially ending 18z and 00z 6 hour time periods. and convective leftovers ending 06z.  There should be something daily somewhere in our subforum through ~July 4. 

[MJO812]

[SACRUS]

6/26

EWR: 86
TTN: 85
PHL: 85
New Brnswck: 85
LGA: 85
BLM: 83
TEB: 83
NYC: 83
ACY: 82
JFK: 80
ISP: 78

[dmillz25]

@forkyfork @bluewave you guys this think the park hits 100 at some point? If not now maybe later on

[nycwinter]

51 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

@forkyfork @bluewave you guys this think the park hits 100 at some point? If not now maybe later on

the earth could be falling into the sun and central park won't hit 100..

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

a dry heat...

[RippleEffect]

52 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

@forkyfork @bluewave you guys this think the park hits 100 at some point? If not now maybe later on

I hope we don’t hit 100, that’s just disgusting. Why can’t we be happy with 85 and dry

[nycwinter]

6 minutes ago, RippleEffect said:

I hope we don’t hit 100, that’s just disgusting. Why can’t we be happy with 85 and dry

that would be perfect weather until sept 1..

[dmillz25]

I’m an extremist when it comes to weather. My perfect summer weather would be 80 and sunny but if it’s hot might as well hit 100

[Rtd208]

High for the day was 89 here.

Current temp 76/DP 70/RH 83%

[Rjay]

24 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

I’m an extremist when it comes to weather. My perfect summer weather would be 80 and sunny but if it’s hot might as well hit 100

If it's 95 it might as well be 105.

[MJO812]

Next week is going to be hot and Next weekend looks wet

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 12z Euro goes full on tropical. Highs in the mid to upper 90s with mid to upper 70s dew points. Very slow moving cold front from Thursday into Saturday with PWATS in excess of 2.00” Training daily convection could lead to flash flooding and severe. With a little luck, the front can clear by Sunday the 4th. 

 

Looks like 80s here, nothing too bad except for the damn humidity.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

That was due the models underestimating the strength of the WAR from 7-10 days out. But every WAR amplification is followed by a pulse down. So when this heatwave begins to fade later next week, then the heavy convection chances will come. The big question is how quickly the slow moving front will clear the area. With a little luck, things clear out by the 4th. The best convection chances have followed our late May and early June heatwaves. Even with the remarkable WAR pattern in recent years, there are going to be breaks between major 594 dm + WAR amplifications. We still aren’t too the point of a constant 594dm ridge during the summer

looks like the week after the 4th weekend wont be too hot either?  Upper 80s and Low 90s at best?