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June 2021


Stormlover74
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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I enjoy seeing records lol.  There's no reason to be outside in that kind of weather though unless you're in a pool or in the ocean lol.

Id rather break dewpoint records at this point, even though I absolutely hate it..but I love convection...ying/yang

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2 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

Id rather break dewpoint records at this point, even though I absolutely hate it..but I love convection...ying/yang

omg I suffocate in high humidity....I think it's the mold spores that get to me.  The only kind of heat I like is very dry heat because I dont get sick in it, plus the number of bugs seem to be a lot less?  I guess they dont like it when the air isn't moist.

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5 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

Id rather break dewpoint records at this point, even though I absolutely hate it..but I love convection...ying/yang

My favorite kinds of summers are one that are very hot and dry but end with a big bang (like a big severe weather outbreak or a big tropical system that comes up the coast.)  There have been a few of those (1999, 2010, 2011, 2012).  I would've loved 1944 had I been around to experience that summer.

 

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Morning thoughts...

It will be variably cloudy and warmer. Some drizzle or light rain is possible in places this morning. There could be an afternoon shower or thundershower. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most places today.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 83°

Newark: 87°

Philadelphia: 85°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 82.7°; 15-Year: 82.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 85.0°; 15-Year: 85.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.2°; 15-Year: 86.5°

Tomorrow will be even warmer.

Yesterday, Victoria, BC set a June record high temperature of 93° and Lytton, BC set a daily record high temperature of 103°. This marked the beginning of a monster heatwave that will engulf the Pacific Northwest over the next few days. At its height numerous June and perhaps all-time high temperature records will tumble, including at Portland and Seattle. 

Today, Seattle will very likely set a new daily record high temperature. Portland will likely break its monthly record high temperature (102°) and could challenge its all-time record high temperature (107°). There is an implied 40% probability that Portland will reach or exceed its all-time high today. Tomorrow will be even hotter.

Daily Records for June 26:

Portland: 102°, 2006 (Forecast: 102° to 110°)

Seattle: 90°, 2006 (Forecast: 95° to 101°) 

*-Forecast range is 1 sigma below and above the forecast mean.

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5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, with Seattle breaking its all time record by almost 10 degrees, I think we have to temper our hot summer hopes because the only two times it ever hit 100 there weren't so hot here (2006, 2009).  If Seattle hits 110 I think it would be the greatest heat record the US has ever seen.

 

There are some differences between then and now. We’ve already seen more heat dome ridges pop up particularly over drought-stricken areas. The climate is also warmer than it was then. While the kind of extreme heat we’ve seen out West is probably not very likely, but cannot be ruled out, a sustained above-to-much above normal temperature regime remains likely. 

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Florida style pattern has arrived.  Dewpoints into or near 70s.  Clouds probably in the way of many 90s today but more sun starting Sunday will get most there. Season of the Western Atlantic Ridge.  Ridge backs west over the area through early July with high heights and 850 temps >18c,  plenty of mid 90s and some upper 90s on the sunnier days, but expect (much like Florida) storms to fire each day Sun (6/27) - Thu (7/1).  

Beyond there, a split and a reverse ECM now maintains ridging stronger and front and any closed off low well west into the Ohio valley, while the GFS has the ULL come through between 7/2 - 7/4.  Id say take the compromise, thie W Atlantics ridge means business and beyond the July 4th weekend it looks to remain warm to hot overall.

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

There are some differences between then and now. We’ve already seen more heat dome ridges pop up particularly over drought-stricken areas. The climate is also warmer than it was then. While the kind of extreme heat we’ve seen out West is probably not very likely, but cannot be ruled out, a sustained above-to-much above normal temperature regime remains likely. 

the prediction for 111 at Seattle on Monday is astonishing.  Do you think NYC/Long Island could ever see that kind of heat?  Seattle has never even gotten higher than 103 before, while JFK has reached 104 so I think with the right set up it's possible.

 

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Our most recent all-time heat records have occurred during the cold season. The February 2018 monthly and winter all-time heat record of 80° surpassed the previous record by 4° degrees. October 2019 featured the 96° max which was 3° warmer than the standing record. Our last all-time heat record for the year was 108° in July 2011. That record at Newark originated over the record drought in the Southern Plains. So like the all-time records in the West, you need an extreme drought to occur in the source region for warm season all-time records. If we see a drought as severe in the Plains or East in the future, then 110°+ will be in reach for our area. 

I cant wait until we have another 1966......

 

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13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the prediction for 111 at Seattle on Monday is astonishing.  Do you think NYC/Long Island could ever see that kind of heat?  Seattle has never even gotten higher than 103 before, while JFK has reached 104 so I think with the right set up it's possible.

 

In a few decades with a general business-as-usual energy policy, the right synoptic set up might produce such extremes. But it would still be a very rare event.

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

the prediction for 111 at Seattle on Monday is astonishing.  Do you think NYC/Long Island could ever see that kind of heat?  Seattle has never even gotten higher than 103 before, while JFK has reached 104 so I think with the right set up it's possible.

 

I'm seeing with the national weather service a forecast high 104

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4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Florida style pattern has arrived.  Dewpoints into or near 70s.  Clouds probably in the way of many 90s today but more sun starting Sunday will get most there. Season of the Western Atlantic Ridge.  Ridge backs west over the area through early July with high heights and 850 temps >18c,  plenty of mid 90s and some upper 90s on the sunnier days, but expect (much like Florida) storms to fire each day Sun (6/27) - Thu (7/1).  

Beyond there, a split and a reverse ECM now maintains ridging stronger and front and any closed off low well west into the Ohio valley, while the GFS has the ULL come through between 7/2 - 7/4.  Id say take the compromise, thie W Atlantics ridge means business and beyond the July 4th weekend it looks to remain warm to hot overall.

first thing I thought of when I went out this morning was how much it reminds me of Florida...so far today is saved by a thin line of showers along the coast...the line goes down to Virginia...I bracing for the heat...praying there will be some relief from it like you dont see in Florida...

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16 minutes ago, uncle W said:

first thing I thought of when I went out this morning was how much it reminds me of Florida...so far today is saved by a thin line of showers along the coast...the line goes down to Virginia...I bracing for the heat...praying there will be some relief from it like you dont see in Florida...

we need a dehumidifier in the worst way.  If the western states can use cloud seeding to increase their rainfall by 15% why can't we have a dehumidifier to reduce our humidity by 15%?

 

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4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

we need a dehumidifier in the worst way.  If the western states can use cloud seeding to increase their rainfall by 15% why can't we have a dehumidifier to reduce our humidity by 15%?

 

how about a pipe line of water from the great lakes to the west...desalination of Ocean water too...

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