June 2021

[Brian5671]

35 minutes ago, TriPol said:

If every morning could be like this morning and every day be like this day, we'd be living in paradise. Not a single soul would ever complain about about sunny, low humidity, and 71. Just gorgeous.

Move to San Diego CA and every day would be like this.  A bit boring if you ask me

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

If every morning could be like this morning and every day be like this day, we'd be living in paradise. Not a single soul would ever complain about about sunny, low humidity, and 71. Just gorgeous.

not warm enough

[jm1220]

6 hours ago, uofmiami said:

48.7 in Muttontown & 50 in Syosset for lows.  Low of 72 here in Orlando, looking forward to landing in the crisp weather later today.

Today’s a beauty. 75 this afternoon and not a cloud in the sky. Doesn’t get any better in the summer. Enjoy before the disgusting humidity comes back with the ridge. 

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

 

Makes me want to vomit.  

[jm1220]

4 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Hopefully that ridge shifts further SW so we can get a drier albeit hotter pattern rather than a hot and humid one

Towards the end of the Euro run the ridge flattens a little which is when temps might really go up. The steep ridge means the hottest temps shoot north of us and we get somewhat milder temps but awful dewpoints. 

[dmillz25]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Towards the end of the Euro run the ridge flattens a little which is when temps might really go up. The steep ridge means the hottest temps shoot north of us and we get somewhat milder temps but awful dewpoints. 

That’s what I’m dreading the higher dewpoints. I’ll take 100/50 over 90/70 

[Santa Claus]

53 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

That’s what I’m dreading the higher dewpoints. I’ll take 100/50 over 90/70 

100/50 also usually entails very strong breezy winds further exacerbated by ample sunshine, while 90/70 means dead air and suffocating to death on ozone.

[JustinRP37]

4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Move to San Diego CA and every day would be like this.  A bit boring if you ask me

A quick hike down to the nude beach will cure that boredom… /s

[WarrenCtyWx]

5 hours ago, TriPol said:

If every morning could be like this morning and every day be like this day, we'd be living in paradise. Not a single soul would ever complain about about sunny, low humidity, and 71. Just gorgeous.

I would like it somewhat regularly in the spring and summer but not every day.

[donsutherland1]

After a cool start, today saw temperatures rise into the middle and upper 70s. Out West, Phoenix experienced the second largest deluge on record for June 23, as showers and thundershowers delivered 0.17" of rain.

Tomorrow will again feature abundant sunshine, low humidity, and refreshing temperatures in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The end of the week and coming weekend will turn warmer. No excessive precipitation appears likely through the weekend.

In the Pacific Northwest, an extreme to possibly historic heatwave could develop starting late this week. Monthly and possibly all-time record high temperatures in cities, including Seattle and Portland, could be challenged or broken.

Records for select cities:

Portland:
June 26: 102°, 2006
June 28: 98°, 2000
June 29: 100°, 2008

June record: 102°
All-time record: 107°

Seattle:
June 26: 90°, 2006
June 27: 92°, 2015
June 28: 91°, 1995 and 2008

June record: 96°
All-time record: 103°

Spokane:
June 26: 100°, 1925
June 27: 102°, 2015
June 28: 105°, 2015

June record: 105°
All-time record: 108°

Climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. Further increases are likely in coming decades as the world's climate continues to warm.

During the 1971-00 period, there was a statistical 0.9% probability that the temperature would reach or exceed 90° during June 26-28. For the 1991-20 period, that figure had increased to 2.0%. Actual outcomes saw Seattle record 90° temperatures on 1.1% of days within that period during 1971-00 and 4.4% during the 1991-20 timeframe. For Portland, the statistical probability of a 90° day during the June 26-28 period was 6.2% during the 1971-00 period and 10.4% during the 1991-20 period. The actual outcomes were 6.6% during the 1971-00 period and 12.2% during the 1991-20 period. That actual outcomes exceeded statistical outcomes is consistent with ongoing warming.   

In large part on account of Phoenix's recent extreme heat event, there is an implied 75% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature near 95.5°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around June 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +6.75 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.549 today.

On June 21 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.868 (RMM). The June 20-adjusted amplitude was 0.737 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 89% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.6° (1.6° above normal).

 

[Santa Claus]

California’s wildfire season is going to be like something out of The Day After Tomorrow

[RippleEffect]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

It looks like the WAR is a little flatter on the 12z Euro. So the maximum 850mb temperatures are  closer to our area. The Euro now has mid 90s in NJ with more SSW flow. But the dew points are still very high due to the trajectory from near the Bahamas.

New Euro forecast for 0z Tuesday

 

Old forecast

That looks cooler than the older run hopefully that trends cooler because honestly who wants 90’s with high dews when you can have days like today 70’s with no humidity 

[CIK62]

The last 7 days of June are averaging 80degs.(70/89), or +5.0.

Month to date is  72.7[+1.7].       June should end at  74.3[+2.3].

GFS with 12  90's during the next 16 days.  

63*(70%RH) here at 6am, m. clear.        68* by Noon.      71* by 3pm.

[winterwarlock]

Bring it on!

[SnoSki14]

So long crisp, dry conditions. 

We start turning up the heat tomorrow. Crazy double ridge scenario with places like Portland shattering records as we approach 100F. 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be another sparkling summer day with bright sunshine, low humidity and comfortable temperatures. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most places today.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 78°

Newark: 81°

Philadelphia: 80°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 82.2°; 15-Year: 82.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 84.5°; 15-Year: 84.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.7°; 15-Year: 86.0°

A much warmer weekend lies ahead.

An extreme to perhaps historic heatwave will likely begin to descend on the Pacific Northwest on Friday. At its height numerous June and perhaps all-time high temperature records will tumble, including at Portland and Seattle.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

So long crisp, dry conditions. 

We start turning up the heat tomorrow. Crazy double ridge scenario with places like Portland shattering records as we approach 100F. 

I believe this is the first time we had 594+ dm ridges in the PAC NW and NE at the same time. Notice how those values for either location are outside the 30 year climo. So a continuation of the unusual wavelength patterns that have become more common since 2010.

[uncle W]

I don't mind the heat as long as there is a few days of relief like the last two days...but I expect alot more heat in the next few weeks...hopfully there will be some cool days between heat waves...

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The 0z run came in even hotter. It now has +20c temps at 850 mb starting on Monday around our area. The 594+ dm heights are near record levels for late June. So the 850 mb temperatures and 500 mb heights could support highs in the upper 90s to around 100 for the usual warm spots.

Yikes….

Since we’ll have the onshore winds, heat index could get over 105 even in coastal areas where temps are lower but higher humidity. 

[CIK62]

Portland OR. gets to 115 before month is over!        Even the EURO agrees.

Just noticed that yesterday it predicted 122....... ?!     Issue:  Why is the GFS not sentenced to death?     Start this model's  programming all over.

NWS in Portland (162.55) predicts 103-108 for greater Portland.  >>>>https://www.broadcastify.com/listen/feed/28781

Highest ever in Portland, OR is 107.      Highest low T is given as 74.

Ridges link up over Canada near end of month and sign a  "HEAT WARRANT" for the US???

[SACRUS]

 

California weather one last day before we head to a Florida-like pattern tomorrow.  The season of Western Atlantic Ridge is coming.  ECM / GFS have a very warm S/SW flow through their runs and what should see pieces of the western heat factory merge east in the later part of the runs.  It looks to transition warm to humid Friday and Saturday and pending on clouds and storms some 90s starting Saturday (6/26).  Sun (6/27) - Thu (7/1)  low to mid 90s 850 temps surging to >18c Tue (6/29) / Wed (6/30).  With such a humid flow storms can popup each day.

Way beyond the pattern looks to remain warm to hot into early July including the 4th of July weekend.   

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Yikes….

Since we’ll have the onshore winds, heat index could get over 105 even in coastal areas where temps are lower but higher humidity. 

If we can pull off upper 90s to near 100° at the warm spots like Newark, then it will be a first when Seattle is so hot. 

Seattle 100° days and Newark high temperature

Downtown Seattle…..6-9-55…..100°……Newark….58°

Downtown Seattle…..7-16-41….100°…..Newark…77°

Sea Tac…………………….7-20-94…..100°….Newark….94°

Sea Tac…………………….7-29-09……103°….Newark…..85°

[qg_omega]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Yikes….

Since we’ll have the onshore winds, heat index could get over 105 even in coastal areas where temps are lower but higher humidity. 

Maybe in August but not in June

The immediate coastline with a persistent southerly flow (15
to 20 mph each afternoon Sat-Tue) will be even cooler (likely in the
70s). Temperatures will be similar through next Wednesday

[SACRUS]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

If we can pull off upper 90s to near 100° at the warm spots like Newark, then it will be a first when Seattle is so hot. 

Seattle 100° days and Newark high temperature

Downtown Seattle…..6-9-55…..100°……Newark….58°

Downtown Seattle…..7-16-41….100°…..Newark…77°

Sea Tac…………………….7-20-94…..100°….Newark….94°

Sea Tac…………………….7-29-09……103°….Newark…..85°

I think we looking at mid 90s next week perhaps 97 or so at EWR.  We'll see how it trends but could be some clouds and storms fairly routinely.

 

Mean while back at the ranch - just a truly nice day today 75 and sunny at 1:20

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Maybe in August but not in June

The immediate coastline with a persistent southerly flow (15
to 20 mph each afternoon Sat-Tue) will be even cooler (likely in the
70s). Temperatures will be similar through next Wednesday

yeah water temps are still mostly under 70

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Maybe in August but not in June

The immediate coastline with a persistent southerly flow (15
to 20 mph each afternoon Sat-Tue) will be even cooler (likely in the
70s). Temperatures will be similar through next Wednesday

On the immediate shore yes, but the strong southerly flow will help the water warm up faster (offshore hot winds actually cause upwelling and cooler water). If the highs are 92-94 a little bit away from the water as shown on that map, that would lead to over 100 heat indexes with the humidity. 

[Brian5671]

39 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

On the immediate shore yes, but the strong southerly flow will help the water warm up faster (offshore hot winds actually cause upwelling and cooler water). If the highs are 92-94 a little bit away from the water as shown on that map, that would lead to over 100 heat indexes with the humidity. 

good point on the onshore flow bringing in warmer water.  Many a year at the NJ shore with west winds, cold water and bay side green flies invading!

[Brian5671]

That coney island guy would like it- a cool/damp 7/4 which he's been rooting for....

[IrishRob17]

50 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That coney island guy would like it- a cool/damp 7/4 which he's been rooting for....

Weenies crying for their mommas?

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It would match our big weather swings pattern if we go from a 594+dm heat dome next week to a cutoff in early July.

 

Imagine another weather disaster for the July 4th weekend. Still very far out but it wouldn't surprise me if this verified.