June 2021

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

and bad farming practices, and we also have some really bad farming practices going on right now.

Regenerative farming needs to be adopted everywhere

 

 

Yeah, the Dust Bowl was an early example of humans altering the Great Plains climate through land degradation. We had a big hand in the magnitude of the record heat. Now we are cooling the region through our farming practices.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16676-w

Here we show, using an atmospheric-only model, that anomalously warm North Atlantic SSTs enhance heatwave activity through an association with drier spring conditions resulting from weaker moisture transport. Model devegetation simulations, that represent the wide-spread exposure of bare soil in the 1930s, suggest human activity fueled stronger and more frequent heatwaves through greater evaporative drying in the warmer months. This study highlights the potential for the amplification of naturally occurring extreme events like droughts by vegetation feedbacks to create more extreme heatwaves in a warmer world.

 

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/america-s-corn-belt-making-its-own-weather

The Great Plains of the central United States—the Corn Belt—is one of the most fertile regions on Earth, producing more than 10 billion bushels of corn each year. It’s also home to some mysterious weather: Whereas the rest of the world has warmed, the region’s summer temperatures have dropped as much as a full degree Celsius, and rainfall has increased up to 35%, the largest spike anywhere in the world. The culprit, according to a new study, isn’t greenhouse gas emissions or sea surface temperature—it’s the corn itself.

This is the first time anyone has examined regional climate change in the central United States by directly comparing the influence of greenhouse gas emissions to agriculture, says Nathan Mueller, an earth systems scientist at the University of California (UC), Irvine, who was not involved with this study. It’s important to understand how agricultural activity can have “surprisingly strong” impacts on climate change, he says.

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly cloudy and noticeably warmer. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most places. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 84°

Newark: 88°

Philadelphia: 84°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 80.6°; 15-Year: 80.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 82.8°; 15-Year: 82.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 84.1°; 15-Year: 84.3°

A very warm weekend lies ahead.

Out West, record-breaking heat will continue across the Southwest, including Phoenix. Tucson will likely record its record-breaking 7th consecutive day with temperatures reaching 110° or above.

Daily Records for June 18:

Phoenix: 115°, 1989 and 2015 (Forecast: 115° to 119°) 

Tucson: 113°, 1989 (Forecast: 110° to 114°)

*-Forecast range is 1 sigma below and above the forecast mean.

[lee59]

Another nice morning, low temperature here 55.

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow 128 and 123 for Death Valley and Palm Springs?!  Do you think this is the peak of the heat or could it possibly get even hotter in those places?

 

It could be the peak, though Death Valley might be exceptionally hot today and again tomorrow.

[SACRUS]

Great stretch of weather will turn warmer today.  Sat - Tue warm to hot with potential 90s, especially Sat (6/19) - Mon (6/21).  Clouds and some storms may get in the way of 90s on Saturday but Sun and Mon look to get there in a widespread fashion. 

Tropical remnants looks to be near the area by Tuesday (6/22)  ahead of a cold front.  Wed (6/23) - Fri (6/25) next week look similar to Thu, cooler and dry and very nice before the humid/ southerly flow backs in as the Western Atlantic ridge pushes west. 

 

6/25 - the end of June warm/humid with front near stationary west of the area.  Need to watch this feature as should the ridge not build far enough west, that front could get hung up along the coast otherwise a bit of Miami into the area to end June

 

Way beyond there as we head towards July, guidance shows more higher heights into the east, kind of an overall warm pattern.

[rclab]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the Dust Bowl was an early example of humans altering the Great Plains climate through land degradation. We had a big hand in the magnitude of the record heat. Now we are cooling the region through our farming practices.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16676-w

Here we show, using an atmospheric-only model, that anomalously warm North Atlantic SSTs enhance heatwave activity through an association with drier spring conditions resulting from weaker moisture transport. Model devegetation simulations, that represent the wide-spread exposure of bare soil in the 1930s, suggest human activity fueled stronger and more frequent heatwaves through greater evaporative drying in the warmer months. This study highlights the potential for the amplification of naturally occurring extreme events like droughts by vegetation feedbacks to create more extreme heatwaves in a warmer world.

 

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/america-s-corn-belt-making-its-own-weather

The Great Plains of the central United States—the Corn Belt—is one of the most fertile regions on Earth, producing more than 10 billion bushels of corn each year. It’s also home to some mysterious weather: Whereas the rest of the world has warmed, the region’s summer temperatures have dropped as much as a full degree Celsius, and rainfall has increased up to 35%, the largest spike anywhere in the world. The culprit, according to a new study, isn’t greenhouse gas emissions or sea surface temperature—it’s the corn itself.

This is the first time anyone has examined regional climate change in the central United States by directly comparing the influence of greenhouse gas emissions to agriculture, says Nathan Mueller, an earth systems scientist at the University of California (UC), Irvine, who was not involved with this study. It’s important to understand how agricultural activity can have “surprisingly strong” impacts on climate change, he says.

 

Good morning B W. Thank you for the corn belt article. I remember reading years ago how the corn belt might possibly move/expand into Canada. A realignment of the breadbasket. Will we see a rise, as Tip mentioned, in the improvement of desalinization technology/techniques? Could such efforts lead to the greening of present large desert zones, such as the Sahara. If an undertaking like this is even possible would it hurt more than help? Questions for the long term, answered results I’ll never see. At least thinking about it is an exercise. As always ….

[bluewave]

43 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning B W. Thank you for the corn belt article. I remember reading years ago how the corn belt might possibly move/expand into Canada. A realignment of the breadbasket. Will we see a rise, as Tip mentioned, in the improvement of desalinization technology/techniques? Could such efforts lead to the greening of present large desert zones, such as the Sahara. If an undertaking like this is even possible would it hurt more than help? Questions for the long term, answered results I’ll never see. At least thinking about it is an exercise. As always ….

Some of the long range climate models have the current megadrought out West expanding eastward to the Plains over this century. So if that  projection is correct, then it would put quite a stress on US agriculture. A gradual desertification of the Plains would probably mean more frequent 100° days for our area in the summer. 

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/1/e1400082

 

 

[SnoSki14]

It blows me away how already hot areas out west are only getting hotter and crushing previous records.

Our summers have been very warm and muggy but I don't feel we've had the same levels of max heat since 2010-11. 

However us being consistently warm still gave us top 10 summers. I guess we'll see what July/August bring. 

[donsutherland1]

A useful paper that helps explain persistent sometimes extreme patterns:

https://www.nature.com/articles/srep45242

[lee59]

Overcast and very breezy here, looks like rain but nothing near.

[donsutherland1]

This weekend will be variably cloudy and very warm. The temperature could reach or exceed 90° in parts of the region. Some areas could see a shower or thunderstorm.

Out West, an extreme heatwave continued in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included:

Blythe, CA: 119° (tied record set in 2015)
Bullhead City, AZ: 120° (old record: 118°, 1985)
Death Valley, CA: 124° (tied record set in 2017)
Flagstaff: 91°
Las Vegas: 113°
Needles, CA: 121° (old record: 119°, 2017)
Palm Springs, CA: 119° (old record: 117°, 2017)
Phoenix: 117° (old record: 115°, 1989 and 2015)
Sacramento: 109° (old record: 106°, 2017)
Tucson: 112°

Tucson reached 110° or above for the 7th consecutive day with a high temperature of 112°. That broke the old record of 6 consecutive days, which was set during June 24-29, 1994.

Phoenix recorded a record-tying 4th consecutive day on which the temperature reached or exceeded 115°. This is also the earliest such stretch on record. The prior record was June 19-22, 1968. The most recent 4-day stretch occurred during 2020 (the only year with 2 such cases) during August 16-19, 2020.

Death Valley recorded its 4th consecutive day with a high temperature of 124° or above. That was the earliest such streak on record. The prior record was June 26-29, 1994. The 4-day average high temperature was 125.3°. The previous earliest 4-day high temperature average of 125° or above occurred during June 22-25, 2017.

The extreme heat will continue into the weekend. The temperature could reach 115° tomorrow and possibly Sunday in Phoenix. Phoenix's daily records for the June 19 are posted below.

Record high maximum temperatures:

June 19: 118°, 2016 and 2017

Record high minimum temperatures:

June 19: 86°, 1958 and 1959

In large part on account of Phoenix's ongoing extreme heat event, there is an implied 55% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature near or just above 95.0°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +2.04 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.474 today.

On June 16 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.459 (RMM). The June 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.344 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.9° (1.9° above normal).

 

[doncat]

86/57 temp split today.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly cloudy and very warm. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 80s and even lower 90s in most places. A shower or thundershower is possible, especially during the afternoon or evening. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 88°

Newark: 93°

Philadelphia: 89°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 80.8°; 15-Year: 80.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 83.1°; 15-Year: 83.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 84.4°; 15-Year: 84.6°

Tomorrow will be another very warm day. 

Out West, record-breaking heat will continue across the Southwest, including Phoenix. Phoenix will likely record its record-breaking 5th consecutive day with temperatures reaching 115° or above.

Daily Records for June 19:

Phoenix: 118°, 2016 and 2017 (Forecast: 114° to 118°) 

Tucson: 115°, 2016 and 2017 (Forecast: 110° to 114°)

*-Forecast range is 1 sigma below and above the forecast mean.

[wdrag]

SEVERE storms-reports/watch late today and Tuesday:

Today: I think NJ and ePA along and s of I80 will see severe sometime between 5P and midnight.  This per EC wind fields with an 850 jet near NNJ by 06z/Sunday.  The lack of big CAPE and low TT in advance to me are the primary drawbacks.   PW near 1.8".  No topic yet due to limited coverage in the forum and SPC not much agreement except marginal risk (maybe because the 06z/19 GFS is timid).

Monday: I didn't look closely at this day but might deserve attention in the future. 

Tuesday:  The severe threat Tuesday may be mostly morning-midday but TT are 50+, KI near 40, PW near 1.8-2.0" despite tropical remnant passing well se. Looks quite active to me and could be a big day deserving a topic. (for me not yet). 

 

Later,

Walt

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 76*(66/85), or about +1.0.

Month to date  is 72.6[+2.3].      Should be about 74.6[+2.0] by the 27th.

67*(84%RH) here at 6am, overcast, bluish sky.       69* at 8am.

[SACRUS]

Back to the heat and humidity for a three day interlude.  Places that can get into enough sunshine between clouds and showers/storms will get to 90s Sat.  Sun  - Mon look drier.  Where its sunny for any long duration could see mid 90s.  Cooler air arrive as a front moves through later on Tuesday (6/22).  Wed (6/23) - Thu (6/24) look similar to this past Wed/Thu dry and very nice/comfortabkle.. 

Southerly flow brings the warmth and humidity as the Western Atlantic ridge builds west likely from Fri (2/5) - end of June.  Need to watch any hung up front which looks west of the area but should the ridge not extend too far west that hung up front could be east near the area.  Need to watch any trends on guidance.

As we get into July still looks overall warm with heights rising into the east and need to see if the W Atlantic Ridge can merge with the Rockies / Plains ridge.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

25 minutes ago, wdrag said:

SEVERE storms-reports/watch late today and Tuesday:

Today: I think NJ and ePA along and s of I80 will see severe sometime between 5P and midnight.  This per EC wind fields with an 850 jet near NNJ by 06z/Sunday.  The lack of big CAPE and low TT in advance to me are the primary drawbacks.   PW near 1.8".  No topic yet due to limited coverage in the forum and SPC not much agreement except marginal risk (maybe because the 06z/19 GFS is timid).

Monday: I didn't look closely at this day but might deserve attention in the future. 

Tuesday:  The severe threat Tuesday may be mostly morning-midday but TT are 50+, KI near 40, PW near 1.8-2.0" despite tropical remnant passing well se. Looks quite active to me and could be a big day deserving a topic. (for me not yet). 

 

Later,

Walt

I was advertising this risk up our way ( SNE ) three days ago ... modest lapse rate, but bigger CAPE and right entrance/side-swipe jet fields.  Seems to pan out but the general kinematic layout is/has repositioned in space and time favoring that evening arrival into your region of the M/A.   - at the time I noted the D3 out of SPC as 'mrgnl' throughout, and surmised they'd goose to 'slght' as the time nears - a typical wait-and-see tact out of that office. Indeed, they have, but it's back toward PA and not up this way.  D'oh

Still, I see this potential as a possible nocturnal evolver going forward -  quasi MCS checklist in place.   Not 100% sold

But, there are wind maxima running over/astride of a bit of a synoptic acceleration of thermal conveyor - present linear MCS stalls/robs theta-e in that arrival? Perhaps.  Source is appears smeared away from the heat Advised region of IA-IN yesterday. This shows nicely in these recent NAM FOUS/grid values ( heh, I'm old school).  It's still pushing impressive 28 and 29 C at 980 over BOS/LGA respectively today and tomorrow, with WSW non marine contamination, and 700 and 500 mb <60% RH typically flags open insolation .. may have to now-cast ceilings with spill-over near-by. If so, I suspect 2-meters slope to 32 C is attainable over metrowest(s) type regions, so that's the other aspect - sneaking albeit pedestrian heat wave lurks.  But yes the 565 dm thickness argues TDs may in fact belated. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I also feel the d-3 risk may smear more E in time, given to the on-gong longitudinal corrective behavior of any guidance when moving through temporal seam between the mid and shorter ranges.  I could see that synoptically getting to western NE/E PA N NJ and NY metro, and then in situ monitoring also has that tendency of outpacing due to outflow propagation

[LoboLeader1]

[CIK62]

We appear to have dropped out of the Claudette wind field probabilites:      Were in the yellow yesterday.    

[Rtd208]

Current temp 88/DP 69

[psv88]

Showing 91 here, local PWS also show 90-91

[Cfa]

90 here, a bit unexpected.

[psv88]

7 minutes ago, Cfa said:

90 here, a bit unexpected.

West wind and full sun, over performer. Topped out at 92. Planted a ton of grass under my PWS and even watered it at 1:30, so reading not too hot

[LoboLeader1]

85 here, DP 63

[LoboLeader1]

[lee59]

Topped out at 89 here, now a lot of clouds.

[CIK62]

Got to 85* at 3:30pm.       Light showers incoming.

 

 

[forkyfork]

beast of a WAR on the euro

[Cfa]

The WARmonger approves.