June 2021

[bluewave]

On 6/14/2021 at 6:42 PM, jfklganyc said:

I’m in Salt Lake City right now.

 

lt is 100°F.. The high is expected to be 103. Tomorrow 105.

For perspective the normal high is 82F

Take a look at any weather app I and go out two weeks. I don’t see one day that is not 15° above normal or more.

 

This is a very scary Ridge. Hope that it does not move east and hope that these people catch a break out here because it is dry as a bone and we are just getting started. This is a tinderbox. Very bad situation out west.

 

 

[Santa Claus]

the sun is strong and makes me sweat but then this cool dry breeze hits and it’s soooo nice.  this is about as nice as weather can get.

[the_other_guy]

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

It was absolutely brutal today. SLC had a temp of 37C when we took off

[donsutherland1]

The first half of June was much warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. New York City had a June 1-15 temperature anomaly of +3.4°.

Tomorrow and Thursday will be mainly sunny and slightly cooler than normal. Afterward, a warming trend will likely develop.

Out West, an extreme heatwave continued in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included:

Billings: 105° (old record: 98°, 1987) ***Tied June record***
Casper: 101° (old record: 93°, 1946, 1959, and 1987) ***Earliest 100° reading on record***
Death Valley, CA: 124° (old record: 122°, 2000)
Denver: 101° (old record: 97°, 1952 and 1993)
Flagstaff: 94° (old record: 92°, 1974)
Medicine Hat, AB: 94° (old record: 84°, 2009)
Needles, CA: 121° (old record: 119°, 1940)
Phoenix: 115° (tied record set in 1974)
Salt Lake City: 107° (old record: 102°, 1974) ***Tied all-time record***
Tucson: 115° (old record: 110°, 1896) ***Earliest 115° reading on record***

The extreme heat will continue through much of this week. The temperature could reach 115° on multiple days in Phoenix, especially during tomorrow through Friday. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 16-18 period are posted below.

Record high maximum temperatures:

June 16: 115°, 1896 and 1974
June 17: 114°, 2014
June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015

Record high minimum temperatures:

June 16: 86°, 1988
June 17: 88°, 1986 and 2008
June 18: 88°, 2008

Phoenix will very likely see the earliest temperature above 115° on record. The existing record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017.

This unseasonable heat will extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +24.25 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.980 today.

On June 13 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.268 (RMM). The June 12-adjusted amplitude was 0.973 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

With Phoenix very likely to reach 115° or above this week, that development could provide another hint of a warmer than normal summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June had a warmer than July-August. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.1° (2.1° above normal).

 

[donsutherland1]

22 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

It was absolutely brutal today. SLC had a temp of 37C when we took off

The final figure was 107, which tied the all-time record.

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, uncle W said:

NYC was only 94 in 1972...98 in 1963...1963 had some very cool days in between heat waves...Aug/Sept 63 was on of the coolest on record...

wow and JFK hit 100 both those years....94 in 1972 when JFK hit 100 must've been one of the largest gaps of temp between the two with JFK hitting 100.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The final figure was 107, which tied the all-time record.

must be difficult for planes to take off in that weather

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The first half of June was much warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. New York City had a June 1-15 temperature anomaly of +3.4°.

Tomorrow and Thursday will be mainly sunny and slightly cooler than normal. Afterward, a warming trend will likely develop.

Out West, an extreme heatwave continued in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included:

Billings: 105° (old record: 98°, 1987) ***Tied June record***
Casper: 101° (old record: 93°, 1946, 1959, and 1987) ***Earliest 100° reading on record***
Death Valley, CA: 124° (old record: 122°, 2000)
Denver: 101° (old record: 97°, 1952 and 1993)
Flagstaff: 94° (old record: 92°, 1974)
Medicine Hat, AB: 94° (old record: 84°, 2009)
Needles, CA: 121° (old record: 119°, 1940)
Phoenix: 115° (tied record set in 1974)
Salt Lake City: 107° (old record: 102°, 1974) ***Tied all-time record***
Tucson: 115° (old record: 110°, 1896) ***Earliest 115° reading on record***

The extreme heat will continue through much of this week. The temperature could reach 115° on multiple days in Phoenix, especially during tomorrow through Friday. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 16-18 period are posted below.

Record high maximum temperatures:

June 16: 115°, 1896 and 1974
June 17: 114°, 2014
June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015

Record high minimum temperatures:

June 16: 86°, 1988
June 17: 88°, 1986 and 2008
June 18: 88°, 2008

Phoenix will very likely see the earliest temperature above 115° on record. The existing record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017.

This unseasonable heat will extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +24.25 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.980 today.

On June 13 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.268 (RMM). The June 12-adjusted amplitude was 0.973 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

With Phoenix very likely to reach 115° or above this week, that development could provide another hint of a warmer than normal summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June had a warmer than July-August. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.1° (2.1° above normal).

 

Looks like Needles and Death Valley were the only ones to exceed 120 so far.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The final figure was 107, which tied the all-time record.

Could break that there tomorrow and even make a run at 110!  Amazing at that elevation and proximity to a large lake.

 

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

1983 was our highest dew point summer until it was finally surpassed in 2018 and 2019.

1983 really seems to be like an early warning shot of the type of summers that have become more common in recent years

 

[wdrag]

Good Wednesday morning everyone,

The Sunday-Tuesday totals were less than anticipated w NJ, and LI didn't do well. Radar seemed to have spotty higher AMT in NYS-CT but not seen in CoCoRAHS, with a max only 2.4" in NJ.

Yesterdays anticipated cold core thunder-small hail did not materialize in our area, as far as I can tell.  

 

 

[wdrag]

fwiw: a week ago originally anticipated weekend of 19-20 Tropical infusion, apparently delayed and may still miss to our south... but fwiw... here the EPS modeling from 00z/16. Doesn't mean this clustering will be correct. Worthy of monitoring.  Otherwise if we miss this, we might be seeing it a little on the drier side the next couple of weeks??

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 74degs.(64/84), or about Normal.

Month to date is  73.0[+3.3].        Should be about 73.3[+2.1] by the 24th.

Not much phasing showing for Tues. AM with GOM system, so little rain.      

In true GFS style---the model went from 71 yesterday  to 104 today,  for July 01.      I expect to see oodles of 100's for us during the next 6 weeks worth of runs.   

64*(71%RH) here at 6am/7am, m. clear.            75* at 3pm.         80* at 5pm.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be mostly sunny and pleasant. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most places. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 80°

Newark: 83°

Philadelphia: 81°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 80.0°; 15-Year: 79.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 82.1°; 15-Year: 82.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 83.5°; 15-Year: 83.7°

A warmer regime could begin to evolve late this week.

Out West, record-breaking heat will continue across the Southwest, including Phoenix. It remains likely that Phoenix will see its earliest 116° or above temperature on record. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. 

Daily Records for June 16:

Phoenix: 115°, 1896 and 1974 (Forecast: 113° to 117°) ***smoke could hold down the readings by 1°-2° from the modeled values***

Tucson: 109°, 1985 and 1988 (Forecast: 111° to 115°)

*-Forecast range is 1 sigma below and above the forecast mean.

Yesterday, Denver had a high temperature of 101°. Since 1872, Denver has had 16 days on which the temperature reached 100° or higher in June. Just 1 (6%) day occurred prior to 1980. In contrast, 11 (69%) have occurred 2000 or later, including 9 (56%), which have occurred 2010 or later.

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Could break that there tomorrow and even make a run at 110!  Amazing at that elevation and proximity to a large lake.

 

It should be cooler today (upper 90s to near 100). The heat has peaked there.

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

It was absolutely brutal today. SLC had a temp of 37C when we took off

Pretty extreme to see all-time record heat tied so early in the season.

 

[donsutherland1]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like Needles and Death Valley were the only ones to exceed 120 so far.

 

120° High Temperatures (June 15, 2021)

Death Valley, CA: 124°

Needles, CA: 121°

Blythe, CA: 120°

Palm Springs, CA: 120° ***Earliest 120° temperature on record***

[SACRUS]

Gorgeous evening down to 56 and a remarkable stretch of weather the next 2 days.  Pieces of some of the massive Rockies and southwest heat will head east and pending on clouds and storms offer the next shot at 90s on Saturday (6/19) and Sun 6/20.  Monday (6/21) may be more cloudy and stormy ahead of any tropical remnants tracking  into the region.  Beyond there 6/24 and on it looks like east coast ridging builds back and potentially hooks with the Western Atlantic Ridge.  Overall warm to hot June progresses.

[SACRUS]

71/51 at 1000.  Just splendid out.  

[nycwinter]

beautiful day if only the sun was not to bright it would be perfect..

[forkyfork]

the dews are coming 

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

1983 really seems to be like an early warning shot of the type of summers that have become more common in recent years

 

Yeah, that was the first summer with such high dew points and heat indices.

[jm1220]

5 hours ago, wdrag said:

Good Wednesday morning everyone,

The Sunday-Tuesday totals were less than anticipated w NJ, and LI didn't do well. Radar seemed to have spotty higher AMT in NYS-CT but not seen in CoCoRAHS, with a max only 2.4" in NJ.

Yesterdays anticipated cold core thunder-small hail did not materialize in our area, as far as I can tell.  

 

 

Typical. We’re in the time of the year where we pull teeth to get any decent precip event on LI. 

[nycwinter]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

the dews are coming 

due to the last heat wave my body has adapted to the heat and humidity bring it on..

[Brian5671]

Great day out there-dry sunny breezy and 75 here

[LoboLeader1]

72 here

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Typical. We’re in the time of the year where we pull teeth to get any decent precip event on LI. 

A # of us think best way to get heavy QPF on LI, se coastal New England including Cape Cod: WARM front south with WAA as the front advances northward toward LI and CC with PWAT growing and a nice inflow at 850MB.   The lift seems to do the trick w thunderstorms and/or heavy showers. 

[mattinpa]

Have to wonder if those extreme temps in the west will eventually come here during July/August. Personally hope not, but would not be surprised. 

[lee59]

Nice pleasantly cool night tonight with low dew points.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be mainly sunny and slightly cooler than normal. Afterward, a warming trend will likely develop as some of the heat baking the Southwest moves into the region. The temperature could reach or exceed 90° in parts of the region during the weekend.

Out West, an extreme heatwave continued in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included:

Albuquerque: 100° (tied record set in 1980)
Blythe, CA: 113°
Casper: 96° (old record: 94°, 1988)
Death Valley, CA: 125°
Denver: 100° (old record: 96°, 2020)
Flagstaff: 92° (tied record set in 1940)
Las Vegas: 116° (old record: 114°, 1940)
Needles, CA: 118° (tied record set in 2000)
Phoenix: 115° (tied record set in 1896 and tied in 1974)
Salt Lake City: 97°
Tucson: 114° (old record: 109°, 1985 and 1988) ***5th consecutive record high temperature***

At Tucson, the temperature reached 110° or above for the fifth consecutive day. That ties June 24-28, 1990 for the second longest streak on record. Records go back to September 1894.

At Denver, the temperature reached 100° for the second consecutive day. This is the earliest two consecutive-day period on record where the temperature reached or exceeded 100° at Denver. The prior record was set during June 22-23, 2012.

The extreme heat will continue into the weekend. The temperature could reach 115° on multiple days in Phoenix during this time. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 17-19 period are posted below.

Record high maximum temperatures:

June 17: 114°, 2014
June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015
June 19: 118°, 2016 and 2017

Record high minimum temperatures:

June 17: 88°, 1986 and 2008
June 18: 88°, 2008
June 19: 86°, 1958 and 1959

Phoenix will very likely see the earliest temperature above 115° on record tomorrow. The existing record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +17.15 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.172 today.

On June 14 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.290 (RMM). The June 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.265 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.0° (2.0° above normal).