June 2021

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I read or misread an article that said they received 4 inches this year. I just looked closer and you are absolutely correct, except it said they have received .93 so far this year. I also looked at the last 11 years and according to the stats I read they have averaged 3.9 inches per year.

No worries. It can happen.

[Gravity Wave]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

The Las Vegas- Henderson area of Nevada averages about 4-5 inches of rain for the entire year. A desert. Lake Mead which is nearby is way below where it should be and is the water supply to so many out there. Vegas has already had some 4 plus inches of rain this year. It would seem to me that lake Mead is probably so low not only because it is so dry but so many more people keep moving there and more water is being  used every year. 

Most of the southwest is utterly unfit for human habitation, let alone the massive sprawl that has sprung up around Phoenix, LV and LA in recent decades. These water crises are only going to get worse.

[gravitylover]

Shhh... They'll hear you and move here.

[HailMan06]

2 hours ago, Gravity Wave said:

Most of the southwest is utterly unfit for human habitation, let alone the massive sprawl that has sprung up around Phoenix, LV and LA in recent decades. These water crises are only going to get worse.

Population growth alone would have cause a water crisis anyway being in such a dry region. CC just speeds up that timeline.

[JerseyWx]

3 hours ago, gravitylover said:

You guys are fkd up  70-75 is so much nicer than hot and steamy. I understand appreciating the extremes but why root for unpleasant? 

This weather is terrible if you enjoy the beach/pool.  Last weeks weather was far better.

[Rtd208]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

[wdrag]

Disappointing overnight most of forum ne PA, NW NJ,  interior se NYS, bit it's lighting up  bit now near NYC.  I like the SVR outlook posted above from SPC and despite poor performance overnight in the WAA down our way, still believe widespread 1/4" iso 3+ b y 10P Tues with small hailers Tue afternoon in some spots.

Have a day.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 73degs.(64/81), or just Normal.

Month to date is  73.4[+4.0].         Should be near 73.2[+2.5] by the 22nd.

65*(96%RH) here at 6am., overcast.

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, HailMan06 said:

Population growth alone would have cause a water crisis anyway being in such a dry region. CC just speeds up that timeline.

The Northeast is getting warmer and wetter while the Southwest is becoming warmer and drier.

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be mostly cloudy and somewhat cooler than normal. Showers and thunderstorms are likely with some periods of rain in the morning and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Some of the thunderstorms can be strong. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 70s in most places. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 72°

Newark: 77°

Philadelphia: 81°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 79.3°; 15-Year: 79.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 81.5°; 15-Year: 81.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 82.9°; 15-Year: 83.1°

The somewhat cooler than normal temperatures will likely persist through midweek. Afterward, a warmer regime could begin to evolve.

Out West, record-breaking heat will continue across the Southwest, including Phoenix. At Phoenix, the temperature will likely reach 115° on multiple days, especially during the Monday-Friday period. It is likely that Phoenix will see its earliest 116° or above temperature on record. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. 

Daily Records for June 14:

Phoenix: 115°, 1987 (Forecast: 114° to 118°)

Tucson: 111°, 1993 (Forecast: 110° to 112°)

*-Forecast range is 1 sigma below and above the forecast mean.

[lee59]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Northeast is getting warmer and wetter while the Southwest is becoming warmer and drier.

 

The drought is certainly contributing to the unbelievable low levels of Lake Mead. I think a bigger reason is the amount of people that are drawing from the water source. 

[SACRUS]

4thday of mainly cloudy conditions.   Rain showers and storms pm and Tue AM.  Cooler / Drier and sunny conditions on Wed and Thu before warmer air build in for this weekend.  Rockies ridge heat factory manufacturing the heat out west.  Pieces of that heat will slide east around the ridge with Sat could see temps approach 90(s).  Beyond there we are continuing to see models show the Western Atlantics ridge building west in the 6/22 period producing a humid , hot flow.  Step up to warmer 6/19 and perhaps more sustained warmth and heat chances 6/22 - and beyond.  Warm to hot June overall.

[psv88]

20 minutes ago, lee59 said:

The drought is certainly contributing to the unbelievable low levels of Lake Mead. I think a bigger reason is the amount of people that are drawing from the water source. 

It’s both. There is documented, verifiable and historic drought. There is also a massive population boom in a desert. The video showed a guy farming in the desert. There aren’t supposed to be farms in the desert...

[JTA66]

15 minutes ago, psv88 said:

It’s both. There is documented, verifiable and historic drought. There is also a massive population boom in a desert. The video showed a guy farming in the desert. There aren’t supposed to be farms in the desert...

I saw a documentary a few years ago about the population boom in the SW. Someone mentioned that hundreds of years from now (assuming we're still here), archeologists will scratch their heads wondering why we thought it was a good idea to build cities in the desert along with houses that include swimming pools.  

[psv88]

9 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I saw a documentary a few years ago about the population boom in the SW. Someone mentioned that hundreds of years from now (assuming we're still here), archeologists will scratch their heads wondering why we thought it was a good idea to build cities in the desert along with houses that include swimming pools.  

Because Americans can’t be told what to do....if they want a house with a pool, the government should butt out, etc etc etc.

[bluewave]

52 minutes ago, lee59 said:

The drought is certainly contributing to the unbelievable low levels of Lake Mead. I think a bigger reason is the amount of people that are drawing from the water source. 

Their water usage has actually been declining in recent years. So it shows you how historic this current drought is. If the Colorado Basin doesn’t see an increase in precipitation the next few years, then they will have to institute drastic cuts. It looks like the first level of cuts will begin by by later this summer.

https://www.circleofblue.org/2020/world/remarkable-drop-in-colorado-river-water-use-a-sign-of-climate-adaptation/

Use of Colorado River water in the three states of the river’s lower basin fell to a 33-year low in 2019, amid growing awareness of the precarity of the region’s water supply in a drying and warming climate.

Arizona, California, and Nevada combined to consume just over 6.5 million acre-feet last year, according to an annual audit from the Bureau of Reclamation, the federal agency that oversees the lower basin. That is about 1 million acre-feet less than the three states are entitled to use under a legal compact that divides the Colorado River’s waters.

The last time water consumption from the river was that low was in 1986, the year after an enormous canal in Arizona opened that allowed the state to lay claim to its full Colorado River entitlement.

 

 

[SACRUS]

Cooldown dailies

6/11

EWR: 73/65 (-2)
JFK: 71/61 (-3)
NYC: 69/62 (-4)
LGA: 68/62 (-6)
TTN: 65/58 )-7)

 

6/12

TTN: 73 / 61 (-3)
LGA: 71/63 (-4)
NYC: 69/62 (-5)
EWR: 72 / 65 (-5)
JFK: 69/ 59 (-6)

 

6/13

NYC: 76 / 62 (-2)
LGA : 77/ 63 (-2)
TTN: 76/59 (-2)
EWR:  78 / 59 (-3)
JFK: 72 / 58 (-5)

[MJO812]

[lee59]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Their water usage has actually been declining in recent years. So it shows you how historic this current drought is. If the Colorado Basin doesn’t see an increase in precipitation the next few years, then they will have to institute drastic cuts. It looks like the first level of cuts will begin by by later this summer.

https://www.circleofblue.org/2020/world/remarkable-drop-in-colorado-river-water-use-a-sign-of-climate-adaptation/

Use of Colorado River water in the three states of the river’s lower basin fell to a 33-year low in 2019, amid growing awareness of the precarity of the region’s water supply in a drying and warming climate.

Arizona, California, and Nevada combined to consume just over 6.5 million acre-feet last year, according to an annual audit from the Bureau of Reclamation, the federal agency that oversees the lower basin. That is about 1 million acre-feet less than the three states are entitled to use under a legal compact that divides the Colorado River’s waters.

The last time water consumption from the river was that low was in 1986, the year after an enormous canal in Arizona opened that allowed the state to lay claim to its full Colorado River entitlement.

 

 

The population of Arizona and Nevada has gone up by some 60% since 2000. That has a big effect on water consumption. . Putting California in the mix and there population has gone up by some 6 million since 2000. Reading the article you showed, I am glad to see how they are conserving much more water now, they will have to continue to do this with potential droughts and more people. Also further down in the article it mentioned less water taken from the Colorado river because more snow melt water was available from up north. It is not a good combination when we choose to live in areas that are extremely dry to begin with and prone to fires. It's like living on the coast and dealing with ocean storms.

[winterwx21]

What happened to the Cod Nexrad radar? It hasn't been updating since June 11th. I switched to Cod Nexrad after the NWS changed to that terrible new radar on weather.gov that takes forever to load and is very difficult to use. Cod Nexrad was an excellent replacement for me, but now that it isn't working I can't find any other radar I like. Anyone have a good one? Hopefully Cod Nexrad will be back working soon, but if not I'd like to find another good radar.

[Cyg]

30 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

What happened to the Cod Nexrad radar? It hasn't been updating since June 11th. I switched to Cod Nexrad after the NWS changed to that terrible new radar on weather.gov that takes forever to load and is very difficult to use. Cod Nexrad was an excellent replacement for me, but now that it isn't working I can't find any other radar I like. Anyone have a good one? Hopefully Cod Nexrad will be back working soon, but if not I'd like to find another good radar.

Check the other radar sites on COD, they're up to date. KDIX has been down for like 3 days now.

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, lee59 said:

The population of Arizona and Nevada has gone up by some 60% since 2000. That has a big effect on water consumption. . Putting California in the mix and there population has gone up by some 6 million since 2000. Reading the article you showed, I am glad to see how they are conserving much more water now, they will have to continue to do this with potential droughts and more people. Also further down in the article it mentioned less water taken from the Colorado river because more snow melt water was available from up north. It is not a good combination when we choose to live in areas that are extremely dry to begin with and prone to fires. It's like living on the coast and dealing with ocean storms.

The major trend over the  years has been a migration of our population to places which have been subject to a record number of billion dollar weather and climate disasters. The West has been drying out with an record amount wild fire damages. The big population increase in Texas has been hammered by record flooding and hurricane damages with storms like Harvey. Florida has had a double whammy of sea level rise and billion dollar hurricane damages. So now their residents are seeing steep property insurance increases. The same goes for fire prone areas of the West. My guess is that the coming years will see a reverse migration away from these areas. Property insurance increases will price residents out of those markets. So they will look for areas of the country that don’t see as many billion dollar events. The future of population growth may be back to cooler parts fo the country. But such a change may take time since people love living in the Sun Belt.

 

 

[lee59]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The major trend over the  years has been a migration of our population to places which have been subject to a record number of billion dollar weather and climate disasters. The West has been drying out with an record number wild fire damages. The big population increase in Texas has been hammered by record flooding and hurricane damages with storms like Harvey. Florida has had a double whammy of sea level rise and billion dollar hurricane damages. So now their residents are seeing steep property insurance increases. The same goes for fire prone areas of the West. My guess is that the coming years will see a reverse migration away from these areas. Property insurance increases will price residents out of those markets. So they will look for areas of the country that don’t see as many billion dollar events. The future of population growth may be back to cooler parts fo the country. But such a change may take time since people love living in the Sun Belt.

 

 

I believe there is climate change. The thing that bothers me is the alarmist that make it sound like the end. Or the deliberate attempt to make the stats seem one way when they aren't. For example the fires out west. Is climate change playing a part, absolutely. However most every site I go to tells me the vast majority of forest fires are set by people, some say up to 90% So if you really want to make a change in forest fires, stop letting people live in highly prone areas. Of course that won't happen, so I guess better forest management is the best solution. We certainly aren't going to change the climate much in the next few years. Insurance costs are always going to go up, more people in areas that get hit by bad storms and inflation. Don't get me wrong, I am for doing what we can to change any influence we have on the climate, in a reasonable way. Just lets keep our minds open to all possible solutions.

[FPizz]

15 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I believe there is climate change. The thing that bothers me is the alarmist that make it sound like the end. Or the deliberate attempt to make the stats seem one way when they aren't. For example the fires out west. Is climate change playing a part, absolutely. However most every site I go to tells me the vast majority of forest fires are set by people, some say up to 90% So if you really want to make a change in forest fires, stop letting people live in highly prone areas. Of course that won't happen, so I guess better forest management is the best solution. We certainly aren't going to change the climate much in the next few years. Insurance costs are always going to go up, more people in areas that get hit by bad storms and inflation. Don't get me wrong, I am for doing what we can to change any influence we have on the climate, in a reasonable way. Just lets keep our minds open to all possible solutions.

As long as it cheaper to live in those area's, the reward is higher than the risk in many peoples eyes.  What is 200k here vs those places is night and day, and paying higher insurance is worth it to millions of people.  Until that evens out more, I doubt you see a vast migration take place.  

[psv88]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The major trend over the  years has been a migration of our population to places which have been subject to a record number of billion dollar weather and climate disasters. The West has been drying out with an record number wild fire damages. The big population increase in Texas has been hammered by record flooding and hurricane damages with storms like Harvey. Florida has had a double whammy of sea level rise and billion dollar hurricane damages. So now their residents are seeing steep property insurance increases. The same goes for fire prone areas of the West. My guess is that the coming years will see a reverse migration away from these areas. Property insurance increases will price residents out of those markets. So they will look for areas of the country that don’t see as many billion dollar events. The future of population growth may be back to cooler parts fo the country. But such a change may take time since people love living in the Sun Belt.

 

 

People wont be coming back north. Most people would rather wear shorts year round than shovel snow.

[Nibor]

33 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I believe there is climate change. The thing that bothers me is the alarmist that make it sound like the end. Or the deliberate attempt to make the stats seem one way when they aren't. For example the fires out west. Is climate change playing a part, absolutely. However most every site I go to tells me the vast majority of forest fires are set by people, some say up to 90% So if you really want to make a change in forest fires, stop letting people live in highly prone areas. Of course that won't happen, so I guess better forest management is the best solution. We certainly aren't going to change the climate much in the next few years. Insurance costs are always going to go up, more people in areas that get hit by bad storms and inflation. Don't get me wrong, I am for doing what we can to change any influence we have on the climate, in a reasonable way. Just lets keep our minds open to all possible solutions.

Yeah but what’s the point of having a gender reveal party if I can’t have pyrotechnics?

[A Moonlit Sky]

16 minutes ago, psv88 said:

People wont be coming back north. Most people would rather wear shorts year round than shovel snow.

I don't know about this. I'm splitting my time in Albany at the moment because I am doing a masters program in urban planning. The field as a whole is talking about the inevitability of a migration northwards. It's not just warmth, but droughts, water restrictions, and extreme weather events. Upstate NY and New England are remarkably well situated for the next century even if the higher end climate scenarios take place--in large part due to the access to large supplies of fresh water.

[bluewave]

55 minutes ago, psv88 said:

People wont be coming back north. Most people would rather wear shorts year round than shovel snow.

Many people who have been leaving California relocated to around Boise, Idaho. That is one of the hottest property markets in the country right now. A bunch of Hurricane Maria refugees from Puerto Rico wound up in Buffalo. Past history Is full of examples of people migrating from the tropics to more temperate zones. But this will probably accelerate in coming decades. 
 

Is Idaho prepared for climate refugees from California?

https://www.idahostatesman.com/opinion/readers-opinion/article237278474.html

 

Wildfires in California are igniting more than chaparral and forest. They are firing up additional reasons Californians will seek safer, blackout-free homes in Idaho. 

An Oct. 28 San Francisco Chronicle article sounded an ominous alarm: “fires intensified fears California has become almost too dangerous to inhabit.” This is exceedingly bad news for Idaho.

For our state to remain the place we love, Idahoans should be cheering for California to address its problems lest they soon become our own. We should acknowledge that the entire arid American West shares a common danger, and Idaho is not exempt.

 

 

[A Moonlit Sky]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Many people who have been leaving California relocated to around Boise, Idaho. That is one of the hottest property markets in the country right now. A bunch of Hurricane Maria refugees from Puerto Rico wound up in Buffalo. Past history Is full of examples of people migrating from the tropics to more temperate zones. But this will probably accelerate in coming decades. 

Buffalo is actively planning for a population increase over the next century. They have the advantage of having dormant infrastructure and the ability to grow inside their own municipal boundaries for a while since they used to be a much larger city. They also have the magic bullet for economic growth these days: meds and eds.

[STORMANLI]

.08" so far