June 2021

[donsutherland1]

On this date this date in 2008, LaGuardia Airport reached 100°. That was the New York City area's earliest 100° temperature on record.

[Phillycane]

Ring of Fire eclipse in Manhattan 

[donsutherland1]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow, looks like that highest summer average temp from 1966 is still holding? I thought 2010 would've beaten that since that summer holds all the other records lol.

Do you have a specific set of those records for JFK, Don?  Including number of 90 and 100 degree days?  Thanks!

I wonder what was happening in 1908 with all those 80 degree lows lol.  We didn't even have an urban heat island back then.

Are you sure about those records from last summer (2020), Don?  I dont remember that summer as being particularly hot, certainly nothing like 2010 was?  July 2020 certainly cant hold a candle to July 2010 our hottest month of all time!

I discount LGA temp records, that area is like an oven, any temp numbers coming out of there should be taken with an extreme grain of salt.  And NYC is now overfoliated.  We should use JFK temp records because it doesn't suffer from urban heat island as much as the others and it's a nice happy medium between NYC and LGA.  Or even better use an average of JFK and EWR and you get the full spectrum of temps and both of those are much less tainted with urban heat island than the rest.

 

Highest average minimum temperature: 72.1°, 2020 (LGA)
Highest average mean temperature: 79.5°, 2020 (LGA)

Monthly:

Average monthly maximum temperature: 90.6°, July 2020 (LGA)
Average monthly minimum temperature: 75.2°, July 2020 (LGA)
Average monthly mean temperature:  82.9°, July 2020 (LGA)

JFK's Numbers:

Summer:

Highest average maximum temperature: 85.5°, 2010
Highest average minimum temperature: 69.2°, 2016
Highest average mean temperature: 77.2°, 2010

Monthly:

Average monthly maximum temperature: 89.0°, July 2010
Average monthly minimum temperature: 72.5°, July 2010 and August 2016
Average monthly mean temperature:  80.7°, July 2010

Annual:

Most 90° high temperatures: 32, 2010
Most 80° low temperatures: 2, 1999 and 2016

All-Time:

Highest maximum temperature: 104°, July 3, 1966
Highest minimum temperature: 82°, July 6, 1999 and August 14, 2016

Earliest 90° high temperature: 90°, April 12, 1977
Latest 90° high temperature: 90°, October 8, 2007

[SACRUS]

Likely the nicest of the next 4 or 5 days today with sunny skies, warm and dry temps.  Cooler weather here as the Ridge pulls west and really builds extreme over the next 7 days or so into the desrts,  rockies and plains.  Trough into the east with rain / showers chances and lot of clouds possible Fri - Tue.  Stronger cool push the middle of next week Wed 6/16 - Thu 6/17 before pieces of the western heat dome begin to eject east.  Much warmer and perhaps hotter with next shot at 90s 6/18 - 6/23.  As BW and others mentions we're on the rim of the higher height and storms and clouds could spoil any heat.  

 

Beyond there and into the longer range, models hinting at EC ridging and ending June with more sustained warmth and potential heat.  Overall warm to hot june progresses.

[psv88]

15 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Likely the nicest of the next 4 or 5 days today with sunny skies, warm and dry temps.  Cooler weather here as the Ridge pulls west and really builds extreme over the next 7 days or so into the desrts,  rockies and plains.  Trough into the east with rain / showers chances and lot of clouds possible Fri - Tue.  Stronger cool push the middle of next week Wed 6/16 - Thu 6/17 before pieces of the western heat dome begin to eject east.  Much warmer and perhaps hotter with next shot at 90s 6/18 - 6/23.  As BW and others mentions we're on the rim of the higher height and storms and clouds could spoil any heat.  

 

Beyond there and into the longer range, models hinting at EC ridging and ending June with more sustained warmth and potential heat.  Overall warm to hot june progresses.

Where are you seeing rain for the weekend? Friday and Saturday look beautiful 

[dmillz25]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Where are you seeing rain for the weekend? Friday and Saturday look beautiful 

Sunday 

[bluewave]

A record number of 90° days from our area into New England by June 10th.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Jan 1 to Jun 10	Missing Count
1	2021-06-10	9	1
-	1991-06-10	9	0
-	1986-06-10	9	0
2	1959-06-10	8	0
3	2010-06-10	7	0
-	2000-06-10	7	0
-	1965-06-10	7	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Jan 1 to Jun 10	Missing Count
1	2010-06-10	7	0
-	1959-06-10	7	0
2	2021-06-10	5	1
-	2000-06-10	5	0
-	1991-06-10	5	0
-	1987-06-10	5	0
3	2018-06-10	4	0
-	2008-06-10	4	0
-	2007-06-10	4	0
-	1984-06-10	4	0
-	1965-06-10	4	0

 

 

 

Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Jan 1 to Jun 10	Missing Count
1	2021-06-10	7	1
-	1930-06-10	7	0
2	1933-06-10	5	0
-	1925-06-10	5	0
-	1880-06-10	5	0
3	2008-06-10	4	0
-	1959-06-10	4	0
-	1931-06-10	4	0
-	1929-06-10	4	1
-	1919-06-10	4	0
-	1881-06-10	4	0

 

Time Series Summary for Manchester Area, NH (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Jan 1 to Jun 10	Missing Count
1	2021-06-10	7	1
2	2011-06-10	5	3
3	2018-06-10	4	0
-	2008-06-10	4	0
4	2013-06-10	3	3
-	2009-06-10	3	0
-	2000-06-10	3	0
-	1999-06-10	3	2
-	1953-06-10	3	0

 

Time Series Summary for SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Jan 1 to Jun 10	Missing Count
1	2021-06-10	6	1
2	2011-06-10	4	0
-	2005-06-10	4	0
-	1962-06-10	4	0
3	2012-06-10	3	0
-	2008-06-10	3	0
-	1999-06-10	3	0
-	1977-06-10	3	0

[SACRUS]

39 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Sunday 

Yes. Sunday pm storms and rain and perhaps periods of variable cloudiness Saturday with hung up front to our south.  It could improve (hopefully) as we get close>

[bluewave]

The summer temperature departures so far match the drought areas perfectly.

[STORMANLI]

Thanks for pictures.  Too many clouds here.

[jm1220]

I woke up early to try to catch the eclipse but unfortunately it was too cloudy here to get a good look. 

[CIK62]

Look Ma!     No 90's.!         I still say late June to late July will be way AN by the Rossby Wave outlook.         Separately, when the hurricane season starts, JB feels the Newfoundland Whirl will be directing storms into the Northeast.

[Brian5671]

JB bullish on the EC from NC to New England-had a good post on it the other day with a bunch of analogs to back it up.    He's always a weenie though so have to take it for what it's worth.

[psv88]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Yes. Sunday pm storms and rain and perhaps periods of variable cloudiness Saturday with hung up front to our south.  It could improve (hopefully) as we get close>

That’s not Friday to Tuesday brother. The weekend will be excellent, maybe some rain later on Sunday 

[RippleEffect]

How’s the weather looking for this Saturday?

[nycwinter]

57 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I woke up early to try to catch the eclipse but unfortunately it was too cloudy here to get a good look. 

when it was about 5:20 the sun was rising i could see the reflection of sun off some buildings in nyc after that the sky got cloudier. it always seem to be cloudy in the nyc area when some eclipse is happening it is never clear.

[dWave]

57 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

when it was about 5:20 the sun was rising i could see the reflection of sun off some buildings in nyc after that the sky got cloudier. it always seem to be cloudy in the nyc area when some eclipse is happening it is never clear.

I think 2024 there will be a solar eclipse, over 90% here, in early afternoon. You wont need a clear view of the horizon at that time of day.

[HailMan06]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

JB bullish on the EC from NC to New England-had a good post on it the other day with a bunch of analogs to back it up.    He's always a weenie though so have to take it for what it's worth.

As much as I’d root for a local TC (yes I may be in the minority) anytime you mention JB I’d use my Galileo thermometer before that guy.

[Brian5671]

39 minutes ago, HailMan06 said:

As much as I’d root for a local TC (yes I may be in the minority) anytime you mention JB I’d use my Galileo thermometer before that guy.

I need 2 weather repeats before I die.   Blizzard of 1888 and Hurricane of 1938

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I need 2 weather repeats before I die.   Blizzard of 1888 and Hurricane of 1938

wasnt snowicane Feb 2010 a repeat of the 1888 blizzard?  Amounts were very similar too.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

The new mesonet stations show that LGA isn’t some isolated case. Areas to the south in interior Brooklyn and Queens were as hot or hotter.  

 

 

EWR and LGA have been spot on with this heatwave. The new micronet stations show how accurate those airport readings are. The only station in this part of the country that has flawed temperature data is Central Park due to the improper sitting in the deep shade. 
 

High temperatures 6-7….6-6….6-5

LGA………………………..93…..95……94

Astoria…………………..93……94…..93

Corona…………………..94……98…..95

Brownsville……………88……95……93

Fresh Kills……………..95……96……93

EWR……………………….95……97……95

NYC……………………….91…….92……89

•  

I just find it really hard to believe that 2020 was anywhere near as hot as 2010 was, you can see that with how few its 90 degree highs are compared to 2010.  The other thing is I always notice a significant bump up in temps after I leave Manhattan and drive into Queens through the Midtown tunnel.  The temps in that area are higher than they are in any other part of the city.  From about the part of Queens right outside the Midtown tunnel through about the Grand Central Parkway.  There's some park with a lake in it  just off the GCP and after that point, the temps start dropping again.

 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wasnt snowicane Feb 2010 a repeat of the 1888 blizzard?  Amounts were very similar too.

 

it's a close match....but  Not here.   Feb 2010 was mostly rain here. We got 3 inches of slop at the end....   The rain/snow line in 2010 was further west for 1888 it was well east of New Haven, CT

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I just find it really hard to believe that 2020 was anywhere near as hot as 2010 was, you can see that with how few its 90 degree highs are compared to 2010.  The other thing is I always notice a significant bump up in temps after I leave Manhattan and drive into Queens through the Midtown tunnel.  The temps in that area are higher than they are in any other part of the city.  From about the part of Queens right outside the Midtown tunnel through about the Grand Central Parkway.  There's some park with a lake in it  just off the GCP and after that point, the temps start dropping again.

 

When you take the average of NY coastal climate division #4, it was the 2nd warmest behind 2010.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/1/7/1895-2021?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010

JJA average 

201006 - 201008	75.2°F	126	3.5°F
202006 - 202008	74.5°F	125	2.8°F
201606 - 201608	74.2°F	124	2.5°F
200506 - 200508	73.9°F	123	2.2°F
201106 - 201108	73.9°F	123	2.2°F
199906 - 199908	73.7°F	121	2.0°F
201206 - 201208	73.4°F	120	1.7°F
201806 - 201808	73.4°F	120	1.7°F
201906 - 201908	73.2°F	118	1.5°F
201506 - 201508	73.1°F	117	1.4°F
194906 - 194908	73.0°F	116	1.3°F
200606 - 200608	73.0°F	116	1.3°F
200206 - 200208	72.9°F	114	1.2°F
201306 - 201308	72.9°F	114	1.2°F

July

 

 

201007	78.5°F	126	4.6°F
202007	77.8°F	125	3.9°F
201307	77.7°F	124	3.8°F
199907	77.4°F	123	3.5°F
201107	77.4°F	123	3.5°F
201907	77.3°F	121	3.4°F
195507	77.0°F	120	3.1°F
201207	76.7°F	119	2.8°F
199407	76.6°F	118	2.7°F
201607	76.5°F	117	2.6°F
195207	76.3°F	116	2.4°F

[doncat]

A much more pleasant 75/56 currently with an east wind.

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

JB bullish on the EC from NC to New England-had a good post on it the other day with a bunch of analogs to back it up.    He's always a weenie though so have to take it for what it's worth.

When is he not bullish? Whether it's a blizzard or hurricane he'll hype the crap out of it. 

[bluewave]

The record heat pulls back to the historic drought areas out West for mid-June.

[dWave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I just find it really hard to believe that 2020 was anywhere near as hot as 2010 was, you can see that with how few its 90 degree highs are compared to 2010.  The other thing is I always notice a significant bump up in temps after I leave Manhattan and drive into Queens through the Midtown tunnel.  The temps in that area are higher than they are in any other part of the city.  From about the part of Queens right outside the Midtown tunnel through about the Grand Central Parkway.  There's some park with a lake in it  just off the GCP and after that point, the temps start dropping again.

 

That makes sense, western Queens is very dense and urbanized, and becomes a little less so the futher east you get. Also around LIC you have about 12 miles of land including the most urbanized parts of Brooklyn separating you from the Atlantic, once you get out to GCP, your lined up with Jamaica Bay and now you only have about 6 miles btwn you and the water.

I feel similar about Manhattan, during the day it does feel a little less hot compared to just outside of it, I think its cuz there so much shade from tall bldgs. Just out of there esp Queens and the Bx its still very urbanized but without all the shade, so much more sun reaches the ground to bake you.  I do noticed those temps really peak on and near roads like 278/BQE, Bruckner, Deegan, Cross Bronx. That kinda what alot of NYC is like away from the water or in a park.

[Santa Claus]

3 hours ago, doncat said:

A much more pleasant 75/56 currently with an east wind.

getting serious vitamin D today Don, it is too perfect outside

[gravitylover]

It's just wonderful out here right now. 

[donsutherland1]

Somewhat cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail tomorrow into the upcoming weekend. However, some warming is likely on Sunday and Monday.

Out West, Phoenix will very likely see the development of a period of extreme heat this weekend into at least early next week. The temperature could reach 115° on one or more days during the Monday-Thursday period. This unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month.

Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. Based on the accumulated data and latest guidance, the June 1-10 anomaly will likely average 5.5° to 6.5° above normal. Through 7 pm, the preliminary June 1-10 anomaly in New York City is 6.5° above normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around June 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +1.05 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.434 today.

On June 8 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.746 (RMM). The June 7-adjusted amplitude was 0.871 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

With Phoenix likely to reach 115° or above next week, that development could provide another hint of a warmer than normal summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June had a warmer than July-August. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.2° (2.2° above normal).