June 2021

[psv88]

14 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

you get  a lot more breaks from the heat then those who live in nyc west and north why complain?

Because I just spent two hours in this heat trying to set up this tent I bought for my weekend camping trip with my wife and kids. Almost lit the thing on fire 

[gravitylover]

That's inevitable, shoulda just gotten it out of the way.

[doncat]

Five day heatwave station temps of  92,95,92,92,92.

[bluewave]

This is turning out to be a new benchmark for early season heat in Minnesota.

https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/june-2021-heat-wave.html

Minnesota has had many historical heat waves that were "worse" than this one on numerous counts. However, at many locations, this was the longest and most severe heat wave to occur so early in the season. It's not unusual have have several days or more of 90-degree weather during the middle of July, but it is unusual to do so during (or before) the first half of June.

In the Twin Cities, where the heat-retaining urban and suburban infrastructure helped elevate temperatures even further, this heat wave has tied the record for consecutive high temperatures of at least 90 F on or before June 15, and obliterated the record for similar early-season consecutive low temperatures of at least 70 F--both officially at six straight days through June 8th. The low temperatures in particular have been incredibly high in the Twin Cities, and so even though other historical heat waves produced higher daily maximum temperatures, not have come anywhere near this one in terms of daily average temperatures.

Records of note set during June 2021 heat wave:

• Duluth, June 4-5: earliest-in-season occurrence of two consecutive high temperatures above 90 F
• International Falls, June 4: highest temperature on record so early in the season (98 F)
• Twin Cities, June 5: highest minimum temperature on record so early in the season (78 F)
• Twin Cities : most consecutive low temperatures at or above 70 F so early in the season (six, ongoing)

Below is a table of daily highs and lows at Minnesota's five major climate stations, from June 3 through June 11, 2021.

Daily maximum and minimum temperatures at Minnesota's five major climate stations, from June 3 through June 10, 2021. Bold indicates a new record high value set in 2021.

Station	Thu 6/3 Max / Min (deg. F)	Fri 6/4 Max / Min (deg. F)	Sat 6/5 Max / Min (deg. F)	Sun 6/6 Max / Min (deg. F)	Mon 6/7 Max / Min (deg. F)	Tue 6/8 Max / Min (deg. F)	Wed 6/9 Max / Min (deg. F)	Thu 6/10 Max / Min (deg. F)
Duluth	83 / 58	94 / 56	94 / 59	87 / 57	86 / 67	85 / 63
International Falls	83 / 52	98 / 48	92 / 58	91 / 52	87 / 47	83 / 60
Rochester	88 / 58	93 / 67	95 / 69	89 / 68	91 / 68	91 / 68
St. Cloud	89 / 62	97 / 58	98 / 70	92 / 74	91 / 67	96 / 65
Twin Cities	91 / 70	97 / 73	99 / 78	93 / 76	96 / 74	96 / 77

 

Update June 9, 2021

[Tatamy]

Seems like you folks in the metro area are having a quiet evening convection wise.  Not here.  Cells have been back building over my community for the past hour.  Lots of CTG with this activity.  Also had a wind gust to 33 mph with one of the down bursts.  Looks to be winding down now.  0.77” in the rain guage.

[SRRTA22]

1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

Seems like you folks in the metro area are having a quiet evening convection wise.  Not here.  Cells have been back building over my community for the past hour.  Lots of CTG with this activity.  Also had a wind gust to 33 mph with one of the down bursts.  Looks to be winding down now.  0.77” in the rain guava.

latest HRRR and NAM have more widely scattered convection developing across the metro in the next 1-3 hours from the convection to the north. See what happens. Also have an outflow boundary in the area from the storms to our south so I definitely agree that the metro will see some action in the next few hours (Nyc west) 

[lee59]

My highs the last 5 days are 90, 92, 86, 90 and 91.

[Tatamy]

14 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

latest HRRR and NAM have more widely scattered convection developing across the metro in the next 1-3 hours from the convection to the north. See what happens. Also have an outflow boundary in the area from the storms to our south so I definitely agree that the metro will see some action in the next few hours (Nyc west) 

Outflow boundaries on a local scale have been the major player in this evening’s activity out here.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

you get  a lot more breaks from the heat then those who live in nyc west and north why complain?

The temps are higher in NJ and inland areas than out here oftentimes but later in the summer the humidity can more than make up for it with how warm the ocean’s been the last few summers. It’s been to the point where in August when the water gets near 80 the seabreeze makes it feel worse not better when it kicks the humidity up. 

[donsutherland1]

Under abundant sunshine, the temperature again rose to 90° or above in many parts of the region. For the first time this year, all three New York City stations (JFK, LGA, and NYC) reached 90° or above. The last time that occurred was August 27, 2020 when JFK reached 92°, LGA reached 94°, and NYC reached 90°. Last year, there were 10 days on which the temperature reached 90° at all three stations.

Today's high temperatures included:

Boston: 90°
Hartford: 90°
New York City-JFK: 91°
New York City-LGA: 90°
New York City-NYC: 90°
Newark: 96°

90° Days for Select Cities (through June 9):

Albany: 1 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 5 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 7 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 7 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 2 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 4 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 5 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 7 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 2 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 3 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 5 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 4 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 9 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 6 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 5 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 7 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 5 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 6 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

Following the frontal passage this evening, it will become noticeably cooler. Cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail into the upcoming weekend.

Out West, Phoenix will likely see the development of a period of extreme heat this weekend into at least early next week. The temperature could reach 115° on one or more days during the Monday-Wednesday period. The last time that happened in June was June 25, 2017 when the thermometer reached 116°. There were five such days in June 2017. The historic average is 0.4 days per year in June. The 1991-20 average is 0.6 days.

Typically, there is a reduced likelihood of additional 115° or warmer days in the July-September period following years where June registered one or more such days (69% of cases had no such days in June-September vs. 56% of cases where June saw no such heat/averages: 0.4 per year in July-August following a June with 115° heat vs. 0.6 per year in July-August following a June without such heat). However, climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. All of the July-August cases with 115° heat following such cases in June occurred 1970 or later and 38% have occurred 2010 or later. One also finds additional evidence in statistical analysis. The coefficient of determination between June and July-August 115° heat is 0.001 (meaning that there is virtually no correlation). However, when time is introduced, the coefficient of determination increases to 0.148. This reflects the impact of a warming climate on the frequency of extreme heat. Considering the combination of ongoing warming and the ongoing drought, it is likely that Phoenix will see additional 115° heat during the summer even if the temperature reaches 115° or above in June.

More immediately, the unseasonable heat that will develop this weekend will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month.

Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. Based on the accumulated data and latest guidance, the June 1-10 anomaly will likely average 5.5° to 6.5° above normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around June 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was -0.42 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.259 today.

On June 7 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.870 (RMM). The June 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.954 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.0° (2.0° above normal).

 

[SRRTA22]

1 hour ago, SRRTA22 said:

latest HRRR and NAM have more widely scattered convection developing across the metro in the next 1-3 hours from the convection to the north. See what happens. Also have an outflow boundary in the area from the storms to our south so I definitely agree that the metro will see some action in the next few hours (Nyc west) 

Welp that failed

[forkyfork]

nw flow severe event potential toward day 10

[SACRUS]

6/9

EWR: 96
TEB: 95
New Brnswck: 91
JFK: 91
BLM: 91
LGA: 91
NYC: 90
TTN: 90
ISP: 89
PHL: 89
ACY: 88

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

nw flow severe event potential toward day 10

Also looks like its time to watch the Gulf coast in the day 7 period and beyond.

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

BTV is the place to be if you like record warm early season water temperatures. This tweet was back on May 21st. Our local SSTs usually peak in July into August.

 

I wonder whats the quickest the south shore of LI has gotten to 70 SST?  Does any site keep track of that?  What about a year like 2002 when we had a mild winter and then a hot spring with a heat wave in April 2002 and a hot and dry summer after that?  Or maybe 1983 which was both extremely hot and extremely humid throughout?  Or 2010 which was hot and dry from start to finish? Another possibility is 1993 which was one of our hottest summers and also very humid.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, lee59 said:

My highs the last 5 days are 90, 92, 86, 90 and 91.

Got to 92 here today.  We reached 90+ on three out of five of these days, 90, 93 over the weekend and 92 today.

 

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

6/9

EWR: 96
TEB: 95
New Brnswck: 91
JFK: 91
BLM: 91
LGA: 91
NYC: 90
TTN: 90
ISP: 89
PHL: 89
ACY: 88

Finally JFK got to 90+ again!  Hit 92 here, so we were 90+ three out of the five days in SW Nassau.

Why were PHL and ACY under 90- too much rain?

I guess ISP doesn't do well on westerly winds?

 

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, Tatamy said:

Outflow boundaries on a local scale have been the major player in this evening’s activity out here.

How was it north of you around Albrightsville?  It looks like they got about an inch of rain from these storms?

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, Tatamy said:

Seems like you folks in the metro area are having a quiet evening convection wise.  Not here.  Cells have been back building over my community for the past hour.  Lots of CTG with this activity.  Also had a wind gust to 33 mph with one of the down bursts.  Looks to be winding down now.  0.77” in the rain guage.

Hopefully not a microburst there.  I had some tree damage from one of those a couple of summers ago.

 

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

While parts of the region could see another 90° day today before the heat breaks, it is perhaps an opportune time to look at the New York City area's summer (June-August) records. New York City area refers to the three New York City stations (JFK, LGA, and NYC).

Summer 2020 was the hottest summer on record in the New York City area in terms of the seasonal mean temperature. The records are below:

Highest average maximum temperature: 87.3°, 1966 (NYC)
Highest average minimum temperature: 72.1°, 2020 (LGA)
Highest average mean temperature: 79.5°, 2020 (LGA)

Monthly:

Average monthly maximum temperature: 90.6°, July 2020 (LGA)
Average monthly minimum temperature: 75.2°, July 2020 (LGA)
Average monthly mean temperature:  82.9°, July 2020 (LGA)

Annual:

Most 90° high temperatures: 48, 2010 (LGA)
Most 80° low temperatures: 7, 1908 (NYC), 2002 (LGA), 2020 (LGA)

All-Time:

Highest maximum temperature: 107°, July 3, 1966 (LGA)
Highest minimum temperature: 86°, July 5, 1999 (LGA), August 2, 2006 (LGA), July 19, 2013 (LGA)

 

Wow, looks like that highest summer average temp from 1966 is still holding? I thought 2010 would've beaten that since that summer holds all the other records lol.

Do you have a specific set of those records for JFK, Don?  Including number of 90 and 100 degree days?  Thanks!

I wonder what was happening in 1908 with all those 80 degree lows lol.  We didn't even have an urban heat island back then.

Are you sure about those records from last summer (2020), Don?  I dont remember that summer as being particularly hot, certainly nothing like 2010 was?  July 2020 certainly cant hold a candle to July 2010 our hottest month of all time!

I discount LGA temp records, that area is like an oven, any temp numbers coming out of there should be taken with an extreme grain of salt.  And NYC is now overfoliated.  We should use JFK temp records because it doesn't suffer from urban heat island as much as the others and it's a nice happy medium between NYC and LGA.  Or even better use an average of JFK and EWR and you get the full spectrum of temps and both of those are much less tainted with urban heat island than the rest.

 

Highest average minimum temperature: 72.1°, 2020 (LGA)
Highest average mean temperature: 79.5°, 2020 (LGA)

Monthly:

Average monthly maximum temperature: 90.6°, July 2020 (LGA)
Average monthly minimum temperature: 75.2°, July 2020 (LGA)
Average monthly mean temperature:  82.9°, July 2020 (LGA)

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

The closer you were to New England, the hotter the last several summers have been. A very impressive run of summer heat across the region since 2010. We never had this many top 10 warmest summers in such a short period of time. 2020 was the warmest summer on record at LGA, BDL, BTV, and CAR. It was the 2nd warmest summer for ISP and BDR. 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1993	79.2	0
2	2010	78.7	0
3	1994	78.5	0
4	2011	78.0	0
5	2005	77.8	0
6	1988	77.7	0
7	2020	77.6	0
-	2016	77.6	0
-	1973	77.6	0
8	1999	77.1	0
9	1995	77.0	0
10	2012	76.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2010	77.8	0
2	1966	77.3	0
3	2005	77.1	0
4	2020	76.9	0
-	1993	76.9	0
-	1983	76.9	0
5	1949	76.8	0
6	2016	76.7	0
-	1999	76.7	0
7	1988	76.6	0
-	1980	76.6	0
-	1906	76.6	0
8	1995	76.5	0
-	1944	76.5	0
9	2015	76.3	0
-	1991	76.3	0
-	1952	76.3	0
-	1943	76.3	0
-	1908	76.3	0
10	1994	76.2	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2010	77.1	0
2	2016	76.5	0
3	2015	76.0	0
4	2011	75.8	0
5	2020	75.7	0
6	1983	75.6	0
7	1984	75.4	0
8	2012	75.3	0
-	1991	75.3	0
9	1971	75.2	0
-	1949	75.2	0
10	2005	75.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	79.5	0
2	2010	79.1	0
3	2016	78.8	0
4	2005	78.0	0
5	2018	77.9	0
6	1966	77.5	0
7	2006	77.4	0
-	1999	77.4	0
8	2019	77.3	0
-	2012	77.3	0
-	1991	77.3	0
9	1994	77.2	0
10	1995	77.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2016	75.4	0
2	2020	75.3	0
3	2010	75.0	0
4	2018	74.3	0
5	2012	74.2	0
6	2019	74.0	0
-	2011	74.0	0
-	1994	74.0	0
-	1993	74.0	0
7	2005	73.9	0
8	2013	73.8	0
-	1973	73.8	0
9	1949	73.7	0
10	2008	73.6	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2010	74.7	0
2	2020	74.6	0
3	1999	74.5	0
4	2016	74.4	0
5	2011	73.9	0
6	2019	73.8	0
7	2018	73.5	0
-	2005	73.5	0
8	2013	73.4	0
9	2012	73.3	0
-	1991	73.3	0
10	2015	73.2	0

 

Time Series Summary for HARTFORD-BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	74.4	0
-	1973	74.4	0
2	2005	73.9	0
3	2016	73.8	0
4	2010	73.7	0
-	1949	73.7	0
5	2019	73.5	0
6	2018	73.3	0
-	1966	73.3	0
7	2012	72.9	0
-	1999	72.9	0
8	2013	72.7	0
-	1994	72.7	0
9	1995	72.6	0
-	1952	72.6	0
10	2006	72.5	0
-	1983	72.5	0

 

Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	72.3	0
2	1949	72.2	0
3	2018	72.1	0
4	2005	71.5	0
5	2016	71.4	0
-	1995	71.4	0
6	1901	71.2	0
7	1899	71.0	0
8	2012	70.9	0
-	1999	70.9	0
-	1895	70.9	0
9	1900	70.8	0
10	1955	70.6	0

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	66.9	0
2	2018	66.2	0
3	1973	66.0	0
4	1970	65.8	0
5	2014	65.7	0
-	2012	65.7	0
-	1995	65.7	0
6	2010	65.4	0
7	1990	65.2	0
8	2016	64.9	0
9	2005	64.8	0
-	1975	64.8	0
-	1967	64.8	0
10	2019	64.7	0

I just didn't find 2020 to be all that impressive as far as summer heat goes, certainly nothing compared to 2010 especially in terms of 90 and 100 degree heat!  How could July 2020 even compare to July 2010 which was much hotter?

I discount LGA temp records, that area is like an oven, any temp numbers coming out of there should be taken with an extreme grain of salt.  And NYC is now overfoliated.  We should use JFK temp records because it doesn't suffer from urban heat island as much as the others and it's a nice happy medium between NYC and LGA.  Or even better use an average of JFK and EWR and you get the full spectrum of temps and both of those are much less tainted with urban heat island than the rest.

 

[dmillz25]

Down go the dews. 

[dmillz25]

3 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Down go the dews. 

You can definitely feel the difference from even 2 hours ago. 

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I just didn't find 2020 to be all that impressive as far as summer heat goes, certainly nothing compared to 2010 especially in terms of 90 and 100 degree heat!  How could July 2020 even compare to July 2010 which was much hotter?

I discount LGA temp records, that area is like an oven, any temp numbers coming out of there should be taken with an extreme grain of salt.  And NYC is now overfoliated.  We should use JFK temp records because it doesn't suffer from urban heat island as much as the others and it's a nice happy medium between NYC and LGA.  Or even better use an average of JFK and EWR and you get the full spectrum of temps and both of those are much less tainted with urban heat island than the rest.

 

The new mesonet stations show that LGA isn’t some isolated case. Areas to the south in interior Brooklyn and Queens were as hot or hotter.  

 

EWR and LGA have been spot on with this heatwave. The new micronet stations show how accurate those airport readings are. The only station in this part of the country that has flawed temperature data is Central Park due to the improper sitting in the deep shade. 
 

High temperatures 6-7….6-6….6-5

LGA………………………..93…..95……94

Astoria…………………..93……94…..93

Corona…………………..94……98…..95

Brownsville……………88……95……93

Fresh Kills……………..95……96……93

EWR……………………….95……97……95

NYC……………………….91…….92……89

•  

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 72degs.(63/80), just about Normal.

Month to date is  75.5+[+6.7].         Should be near  73.9[+3.5] by the 18th.

Just 86* here yesterday at 3pm and one rumble of thunder at 4:20pm, no rain.

LR pending outcome of possible TS in GoM near the 20/21st.        Changing outcomes by the run so far.

76*(63%RH), scattered clouds.           80* at 11am.        79* by Noon.        76* at 2pm.        78* at 4pm.

[lee59]

5 hours ago, SACRUS said:

6/9

EWR: 96
TEB: 95
New Brnswck: 91
JFK: 91
BLM: 91
LGA: 91
NYC: 90
TTN: 90
ISP: 89
PHL: 89
ACY: 88

Looks like the Newark to Teterboro zone is the hottest place in our area. Once again Newark leads the way.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be mostly sunny and warm. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most places . Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 84°

Newark: 87°

Philadelphia: 85°

Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and much cooler.

Out West, Phoenix will likely see the development of a period of extreme heat this weekend into at least early next week. The temperature could reach 115° on one or more days during the Monday-Thursday period. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. 

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Looks like the Newark to Teterboro zone is the hottest place in our area. Once again Newark leads the way.

NYC and TTN have been pretty much the same the past 5 days.  

[donsutherland1]

Shortly after sunrise this morning:

[dWave]

Eclipse over LI Sound