LibertyBell Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: The air mass moved east-northeastward from the Northern Plains and southern Canada. The core of the heat passed to our north. In addition, there was some flow off the southwestern Atlantic and contributed to higher humidity for the New York Metro Area. Don could this also happen because of a heat ridge being further to the north? The way I was picturing it, with a clockwise flow around high pressure, and hot high pressure displaced further north and closer to our latitude, we get more of a southerly component to our wind while areas north of us get the hotter more westerly wind. For us to get that kind of wind the heat ridge would need to be over North Carolina or Virginia in which case we'd be getting the westerly downsloping winds (look at the megaheatwaves in early July 1993, July 1999 and July 2010 and this is what happened.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: i'm liking storm chances tomorrow from queens west what about queens nassau border (southern part) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: No, 81 is correct. Hi, Don. I am not so familiar with the different NYC area locations. Was there a reason JFK stayed so low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 1 hour ago, mattinpa said: Hi, Don. I am not so familiar with the different NYC area locations. Was there a reason JFK stayed so low? The wind was out of the south off the ocean. That kept JFK cooler than places like LGA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Don could this also happen because of a heat ridge being further to the north? The way I was picturing it, with a clockwise flow around high pressure, and hot high pressure displaced further north and closer to our latitude, we get more of a southerly component to our wind while areas north of us get the hotter more westerly wind. For us to get that kind of wind the heat ridge would need to be over North Carolina or Virginia in which case we'd be getting the westerly downsloping winds (look at the megaheatwaves in early July 1993, July 1999 and July 2010 and this is what happened.) Yes, that makes a difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 A balmy 79 degrees here at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 Warmest morning of the year so far at 74/70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 72degs.(64/80), or about +1.0. The GFS has lost almost all the heat it has been showing over the 'next 15' on the daily updates. Maybe a computer patch---if not---we may see lower T's than indicated. It has more rain for the next 5 days than the other two main models too. 74*(88%RH), here at 6am--dirty, hazy blue. Down to 73* at 9am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 72degs.(64/80), or about +1.0. The GFS has lost almost all the heat it has been showing over the 'next 15' on the daily updates. Maybe a computer patch---if not---we may see lower T's than indicated. It has more rain for the next 5 days than the other two main models too. 74*(88%RH), dirty, hazy blue.It seems if you see heat in the long range be skeptical.If it looks below normal, lock it in.Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 8 hours ago, LibertyBell said: whats causing the heat to go north of us? one would logically think that heat goes from south to north and therefore has to pass through us before it can get north of us? The ridge has been getting stronger in recent years. So the warmest 850 mb temperatures get pushed up to our north. This process also allows the winds to become more onshore here. We need more of a westerly flow to reach 100° since we are right on the Atlantic Ocean. This weekend featured the warmest temperatures relative to the records going from the Dakotas to Northern New England. The early June 2011 record heat when Newark reached 102° had a flatter ridge. So the maximum 850 mb temperatures went right through our area. Notice how Burlington had the 3rd warmest June high temperature of all time vs 6th warmest at Newark. Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1995 100 0 2 2012 97 0 - 1994 97 0 - 1988 97 0 3 2021 96 23 - 2020 96 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 102 0 - 1994 102 0 - 1993 102 0 - 1952 102 0 - 1943 102 0 2 1988 101 0 - 1966 101 0 3 1959 100 0 - 1953 100 0 - 1934 100 0 4 2017 99 0 - 2012 99 0 - 2008 99 0 - 1999 99 0 - 1964 99 0 - 1963 99 0 - 1956 99 0 - 1949 99 0 - 1945 99 0 - 1933 99 0 5 2010 98 0 - 1981 98 0 - 1974 98 0 - 1961 98 0 - 1950 98 0 6 2021 97 23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be variably cloudy and very warm. Showers and thundershowers are likely. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the middle and upper 80s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 87° Newark: 91° Philadelphia: 89° Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and still very warm. Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely from a frontal passage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 Humid , hot and what should be widespread rain and storms this afternoon. The race to 90 ahead of clouds and subsequent storms will be close. More of the same tomorrow with clouds and lingering storms and highs dependent on clouds and rain timing. Beyond there Thu 6/10 a week or so of a cool down as the ridges split / Rockies ride pulls west and WAR is shunted east with a weakness between and subsequent ULL / cutoff that meanders the EC cut off from the trough. Depending on the position of the ULL and if far enough south and west of the area we could see a day or two of southerly warm flow or a fews days of rain. Longer range has similarly hinted at a period like we are currently in progressing with the next heat spike in the 6/18 - 6/23 period as the west coast ridge builds east. Overall warm to hot June 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 Weekend California style weather alert. 70s and sunny - lets see if it holds. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 hazy sun, 82 /73 after low of 77 Did LGA, NYC etc.. set record high mins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 The most impressive heat this month could be during the first and last week of June. The heat ridge backs up to the West where the extreme drought is located during mid-June. Long range EPS hints at the ridge rebuilding near New England by the last week of June. But can the 97° at Newark this past weekend be challenged then? Stay tuned…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 its sad when EWR hitting 97 is just not that impressive anymore (plus they run 2-3 degrees warm on the sensor) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 27 minutes ago, qg_omega said: its sad when EWR hitting 97 is just not that impressive anymore (plus they run 2-3 degrees warm on the sensor) EWR and LGA have been spot on with this heatwave. The new micronet stations show how accurate those airport readings are. The only station in this part of the country that has flawed temperature data is Central Park due to the improper sitting in the deep shade. High temperatures 6-7….6-6….6-5 LGA………………………..93…..95……94 Astoria…………………..93……94…..93 Corona…………………..94……98…..95 Brownsville……………88……95……93 Fresh Kills……………..95……96……93 EWR……………………….95……97……95 NYC……………………….91…….92……89 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 another 90 for ewr before the sea breeze and convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 2 hours ago, dWave said: hazy sun, 82 /73 after low of 77 Did LGA, NYC etc.. set record high mins? Yes. Both set new records with lows of 76 yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 92 here with full sun, day 4 of heatwave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 convection already organizing over ny/pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 Record high mid 70s dew points for June in portions of the area. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=SMQ&month=jun&var=max_dwpf&dpi=100&_fmt=png 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 5 hours ago, bluewave said: The ridge has been getting stronger in recent years. So the warmest 850 mb temperatures get pushed up to our north. This process also allows the winds to become more onshore here. We need more of a westerly flow to reach 100° since we are right on the Atlantic Ocean. This weekend featured the warmest temperatures relative to the records going from the Dakotas to Northern New England. The early June 2011 record heat when Newark reached 102° had a flatter ridge. So the maximum 850 mb temperatures went right through our area. Notice how Burlington had the 3rd warmest June high temperature of all time vs 6th warmest at Newark. Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1995 100 0 2 2012 97 0 - 1994 97 0 - 1988 97 0 3 2021 96 23 - 2020 96 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 102 0 - 1994 102 0 - 1993 102 0 - 1952 102 0 - 1943 102 0 2 1988 101 0 - 1966 101 0 3 1959 100 0 - 1953 100 0 - 1934 100 0 4 2017 99 0 - 2012 99 0 - 2008 99 0 - 1999 99 0 - 1964 99 0 - 1963 99 0 - 1956 99 0 - 1949 99 0 - 1945 99 0 - 1933 99 0 5 2010 98 0 - 1981 98 0 - 1974 98 0 - 1961 98 0 - 1950 98 0 6 2021 97 23 Chris, is this what happened in 1936 and 1995 too? So basically the maximum heat was off to our west, but both years, in July we had a short time when we were under the tongue of max heat and exceeded 100 degrees. This sounds like the summer equivalent of a strengthening low pressure getting too close to us and changing snow over to rain because of an onshore push- are they equivalent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 33 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes. Both set new records with lows of 76 yesterday. it was 68 here this morning lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 2 hours ago, bluewave said: EWR and LGA have been spot on with this heatwave. The new micronet stations show how accurate those airport readings are. The only station in this part of the country that has flawed temperature data is Central Park due to the improper sitting in the deep shade. High temperatures 6-7….6-6….6-5 LGA………………………..93…..95……94 Astoria…………………..93……94…..93 Corona…………………..94……98…..95 Brownsville……………88……95……93 Fresh Kills……………..95……96……93 EWR……………………….95……97……95 NYC……………………….91…….92……89 what about JFK? they seem to be running cooler than the south shore stations of western Nassau county we hit 90 Saturday and 93 Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 3 hours ago, bluewave said: The most impressive heat this month could be during the first and last week of June. The heat ridge backs up to the West where the extreme drought is located during mid-June. Long range EPS hints at the ridge rebuilding near New England by the last week of June. But can the 97° at Newark this past weekend be challenged then? Stay tuned…. are we talking about a more westerly push for the heat at the end of June or will that be an onshore push for us again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 3 hours ago, SACRUS said: Humid , hot and what should be widespread rain and storms this afternoon. The race to 90 ahead of clouds and subsequent storms will be close. More of the same tomorrow with clouds and lingering storms and highs dependent on clouds and rain timing. Beyond there Thu 6/10 a week or so of a cool down as the ridges split / Rockies ride pulls west and WAR is shunted east with a weakness between and subsequent ULL / cutoff that meanders the EC cut off from the trough. Depending on the position of the ULL and if far enough south and west of the area we could see a day or two of southerly warm flow or a fews days of rain. Longer range has similarly hinted at a period like we are currently in progressing with the next heat spike in the 6/18 - 6/23 period as the west coast ridge builds east. Overall warm to hot June Heat will probably rebuild after 6/21 Pattern changes are often rushed by the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: The wind was out of the south off the ocean. That kept JFK cooler than places like LGA. that plus that sensor is right near the water lol south shore of nassau a couple of miles away from the ocean was warmer (like me) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 Noon round up EWR: 91 LGA: 90 TEB: 89 New Brnswck: 88 BLM: 88 ACY: 87 TTN: 86 NYC: 86 PHL: 86 ISP: 81 JFK: 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 8, 2021 Share Posted June 8, 2021 Low here was 68, my current dew shows 78, but it is over my recently water grass, so probably a bit moist. ISP show 72 dew though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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