Severe Weather May 26th- 28th 2021

[WhirlingWx]

Pretty much all other CAMs show convective initiation though... We've seen multiple times where the HRRR backs off on initiating during the late morning on the day of only to just be wrong and in disagreement with the other models. Of course, storms aren't guaranteed either, but I'm just saying that this kind of situation is not too unusual for the HRRR.

[mob1]

5 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

Pretty much all other CAMs show convective initiation though... We've seen multiple times where the HRRR backs off on initiating during the late morning on the day of only to just be wrong and in disagreement with the other models. Of course, storms aren't guaranteed either, but I'm just saying that this kind of situation is not too unusual for the HRRR.

And the run coming out now (16Z) has quite a few cells across KS later. 

[JoMo]

10% tornado tomorrow IMBY on the new outlook down into NE OK. Yuck. 

[Quincy]

36 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

Pretty much all other CAMs show convective initiation though... We've seen multiple times where the HRRR backs off on initiating during the late morning on the day of only to just be wrong and in disagreement with the other models. Of course, storms aren't guaranteed either, but I'm just saying that this kind of situation is not too unusual for the HRRR.

Even several HRRR ensemble members show earlier CI

 

[thunderbird12]

Hard to imagine there won't be at least widely scattered development down the dryline in western KS by early evening, given how weak the cap is. 

The storm currently west of Hays looks like it is near the effective warm front and probably becoming surface based. Low-level flow is still weak, but it might have a chance to do something given the large CAPE and its location near the boundary.  

[mob1]

The cell near Hays could really use a TW now.

 

Edit; it looks a bit broader now but from what I'm seeing in Twitter it likely produced a brief tornado. 

[MUWX]

It’ll be interesting to see what happens to the hays storm once it ingests this shower

[mob1]

Looks close here but not quite 

[Tezeta]

Too much, too early. 

[MUWX]

DDC says that it is still well north or the boundary 

[thunderbird12]

4 minutes ago, MUWX said:

DDC says that it is still well north or the boundary 

It may have started north of the boundary, but based on surface obs, satellite, and its southeastward motion, it is very near the boundary now or is about to be. The boundary is pretty diffuse anyway, so it isn't easy to pinpoint a location and call that the boundary. I doubt the cell would be propagating southeastward like it is if it wasn't surface based. 

[Quincy]

That’ll spell problems. Any storms that go up in western Kansas over the next few hours should rapidly become severe. 

[JakkelWx]

There must be some huge hail in the storm near Hays.

 

Edit: 4 inches. JESUS.

[mob1]

First Tornado Warning of the day near Susank KS. The storm to it's west (near Hays) is an absolute beast of a cell and is dropping some huge hail at the very least. 

[Chinook]

4 minutes ago, mob1 said:

First Tornado Warning of the day near Susank KS. The storm to it's west (near Hays) is an absolute beast of a cell and is dropping some huge hail at the very least. 

[mob1]

While this video is definitely inconclusive, it's kind of odd how stubborn they are about issuing a TW for this storm. It's been close to the ground on multiple occasions. 

[OhioWX]

TOG on John Humphress' stream.

[StormChazer]

BIG tornado on Humphress stream.

[mob1]

 

[Windspeed]

[Calderon]

Well, that escalated quickly, and still no TOR watch yet. 

[thunderbird12]

8 minutes ago, TheSuckZone said:

Someone who is a little smarter than me may be able to answer this. SPC mentioned in an earlier outlook about afternoon convection overturning the atmosphere that might lower the severe threat a bit later on. Is that valid for where the storms are occurring now or is there still plenty of time for the atmosphere to recharge?

Most of the moderate risk area is probably not going to be affected by the ongoing storms. Areas immediately to the north and east of the ongoing complex might have the threat reduced due to disrupted storm inflow, though. 

[weatherextreme]

https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/john.humphress.html

[weatherextreme]

Adair's stream. He just confirmed a TOG

 

https://livestormchasing.com/chasers/brett.adair

[MUWX]

Looks like things may be about to go in western ks. 

[A777]

From StormchaserIRL's twitch stream. He's on the TORR in nebraska.

[Quincy]

Hanging back near Scott City. Watching dozens of chasers flood north, but I’m hanging back in case we get CI in southwestern Kansas soon. Looks like a tornado is also ongoing at the moment in far southwestern Nebraska. 

[SluggerWx]

StormChaserIRL Twitch stream is pretty amazing right now. Giant wall cloud basically on the ground.

[cheese007]

Monster tornado for a bit on the Twitch stream A777 mentioned. Might still be on ground but hills in the way

[thunderbird12]

PDS TOR watch issued for western KS, southwest NE, and northeast CO.