WhirlingWx Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 Pretty much all other CAMs show convective initiation though... We've seen multiple times where the HRRR backs off on initiating during the late morning on the day of only to just be wrong and in disagreement with the other models. Of course, storms aren't guaranteed either, but I'm just saying that this kind of situation is not too unusual for the HRRR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, TexMexWx said: Pretty much all other CAMs show convective initiation though... We've seen multiple times where the HRRR backs off on initiating during the late morning on the day of only to just be wrong and in disagreement with the other models. Of course, storms aren't guaranteed either, but I'm just saying that this kind of situation is not too unusual for the HRRR. And the run coming out now (16Z) has quite a few cells across KS later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 10% tornado tomorrow IMBY on the new outlook down into NE OK. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 36 minutes ago, TexMexWx said: Pretty much all other CAMs show convective initiation though... We've seen multiple times where the HRRR backs off on initiating during the late morning on the day of only to just be wrong and in disagreement with the other models. Of course, storms aren't guaranteed either, but I'm just saying that this kind of situation is not too unusual for the HRRR. Even several HRRR ensemble members show earlier CI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbird12 Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 Hard to imagine there won't be at least widely scattered development down the dryline in western KS by early evening, given how weak the cap is. The storm currently west of Hays looks like it is near the effective warm front and probably becoming surface based. Low-level flow is still weak, but it might have a chance to do something given the large CAPE and its location near the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 The cell near Hays could really use a TW now. Edit; it looks a bit broader now but from what I'm seeing in Twitter it likely produced a brief tornado. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 It’ll be interesting to see what happens to the hays storm once it ingests this shower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 Looks close here but not quite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 Too much, too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 DDC says that it is still well north or the boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbird12 Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, MUWX said: DDC says that it is still well north or the boundary It may have started north of the boundary, but based on surface obs, satellite, and its southeastward motion, it is very near the boundary now or is about to be. The boundary is pretty diffuse anyway, so it isn't easy to pinpoint a location and call that the boundary. I doubt the cell would be propagating southeastward like it is if it wasn't surface based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 That’ll spell problems. Any storms that go up in western Kansas over the next few hours should rapidly become severe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 There must be some huge hail in the storm near Hays. Edit: 4 inches. JESUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 First Tornado Warning of the day near Susank KS. The storm to it's west (near Hays) is an absolute beast of a cell and is dropping some huge hail at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, mob1 said: First Tornado Warning of the day near Susank KS. The storm to it's west (near Hays) is an absolute beast of a cell and is dropping some huge hail at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 While this video is definitely inconclusive, it's kind of odd how stubborn they are about issuing a TW for this storm. It's been close to the ground on multiple occasions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioWX Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 TOG on John Humphress' stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 BIG tornado on Humphress stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 Well, that escalated quickly, and still no TOR watch yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbird12 Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 8 minutes ago, TheSuckZone said: Someone who is a little smarter than me may be able to answer this. SPC mentioned in an earlier outlook about afternoon convection overturning the atmosphere that might lower the severe threat a bit later on. Is that valid for where the storms are occurring now or is there still plenty of time for the atmosphere to recharge? Most of the moderate risk area is probably not going to be affected by the ongoing storms. Areas immediately to the north and east of the ongoing complex might have the threat reduced due to disrupted storm inflow, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 26, 2021 Author Share Posted May 26, 2021 https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/john.humphress.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 26, 2021 Author Share Posted May 26, 2021 Adair's stream. He just confirmed a TOG https://livestormchasing.com/chasers/brett.adair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 Looks like things may be about to go in western ks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A777 Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 From StormchaserIRL's twitch stream. He's on the TORR in nebraska. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 Hanging back near Scott City. Watching dozens of chasers flood north, but I’m hanging back in case we get CI in southwestern Kansas soon. Looks like a tornado is also ongoing at the moment in far southwestern Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 StormChaserIRL Twitch stream is pretty amazing right now. Giant wall cloud basically on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 Monster tornado for a bit on the Twitch stream A777 mentioned. Might still be on ground but hills in the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbird12 Posted May 26, 2021 Share Posted May 26, 2021 PDS TOR watch issued for western KS, southwest NE, and northeast CO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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