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Wednesday, May 26, 2021 Convective/Severe Weather Potential


weatherwiz
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Good discussion from Gray. Maybe I’ll be taking a quick ride up into the Maine coast from my place. 

 While overall flow is SWly, local
convergence due to a seabreeze boundary attempting to push inwards
will also make the area from Lewiston south through interior
Cumberland and York counties and into Strafford county favorable for
tornado formation if any significant cells are able to form and
take advantage of this environment in the early afternoon.
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3 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

Good discussion from Gray. Maybe I’ll be taking a quick ride up into the Maine coast from my place. 


 While overall flow is SWly, local
convergence due to a seabreeze boundary attempting to push inwards
will also make the area from Lewiston south through interior
Cumberland and York counties and into Strafford county favorable for
tornado formation if any significant cells are able to form and
take advantage of this environment in the early afternoon.

I'm intrigued by sea-breeze boundary down this way too...models continuing to hint at a narrow axis of enhanced 3km CAPE/llvl shear along it

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10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Big increases in numbers on the 19z HRRR at BDL for 7 PM!!!!!!!!

image.thumb.png.8a3229d904144c3dd6e305820f038aad.png

We'll see. I'm still a bit skeptical but the radar looks ok to the west.

mcd0752.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0752
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0341 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

   Areas affected...portions of northern VA...MD...DE...NJ...eastern
   PA...southern NY...southern VT...and western MA/CT

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205...206...

   Valid 262041Z - 262145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205, 206
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to produce
   sporadic wind damage the next several hours as they moved eastward
   across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.

   DISCUSSION...Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms continue to
   quickly progress eastward late this afternoon. Mainly weak
   instability prevails across the region, with some pockets of MLCAPE
   as high as 1500 J/kg closer to the Delmarva vicinity. While this
   weaker instability and limited deep layer shear is subduing a larger
   severe threat, very steep low level lapse rates are aiding in
   periodic strong downdrafts. Sporadic damaging gusts have been
   reported through the afternoon and this trend should continue with
   the more intense clusters over the next few hours across eastern
   portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205 and into Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch 206.

   ..Leitman.. 05/26/2021
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Looking at NCAR this is behaving about as planned ... you can see clear indications of earlier outflow organizing into a 'bow' swath and new activity forms right at the wedge interface as it now propagates sort of down the Mohawk Trail.

It's 91/66 here averaged on home stations but I don't trust those DP least of those numbers...  temp matches KFIT ASOS tho..  Lapse rates are also limiting some of this... I wouldn't be shocked if this is a wind acceleration and light activity by the time it gets to eastern zones.  This whole set up was just slightly too early relative to heating hours.  Need to be synoptically another 3 to 5 hours along I think

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