June 2021 General Discussion

[Hoosier]

13 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

The question is, does it translate to extreme heat in eastern portions of the region the way it did in 1988? I’m guessing the drought east of the Mississippi was much more severe in 1988 than it is now.

May 2021 isn't available for plotting yet, but here is a comparison of precip anomalies from 1988 and 2021... through April.

 

 

[Brian D]

Or we could use these maps. 1988 was much drier overall. The scales are a little different, but stills shows the big difference.

[Hoosier]

Based on my calculations, Chicago should be around +8 for the month by the time we get to June 10.  Could be a little higher if the coming days were to verify on the warmer end.

If that occurs, then the 11th-30th would only have to average around +1 to get the month into a top 10 warmest June.

[Castaway]

Definitely can feel the dry 90 today with the humidity at 23% and dews at 46.

Didn’t break a sweat that much. And with the home ac system down at home.
 

Nice breeze today too. 

[Hoosier]

For those keeping score, the high was 106 in Bismarck and 102 in Fargo.

[beavis1729]

24 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

For those keeping score, the high was 106 in Bismarck and 102 in Fargo.

And INL hit 98, their first 90+ temp in June since 2005 and a new daily record high (old record 92 in 1988). All-time high is 103, June monthly high is 101. Records since 1897.

[cyclone77]

89'd at both MLI and DVN today.  Still waiting on 1st 90 degree day.  Soils drying out so will get easier and easier going forward.

[hardypalmguy]

Wow. These low dews are something else. I’m having to water my tropicals twice a day.


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[Chicago Storm]

High at ORD looks like probably 87.  I think.

Hit 91 at ex home yesterday.

91 ORD and MDW today, and 92 at ex home.


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[TimB]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

For those keeping score, the high was 106 in Bismarck and 102 in Fargo.

As noted earlier, the Bismarck high represents a temperature that was reached two weeks earlier than it has ever been reached in recorded history. As I said earlier this spring, it was only a matter of time before an eye-popping statistic like this was recorded in the Midwest US.

[madwx]

Got 89’d here today

[bowtie`]

The visual satellite has the death ridge look to it today.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Record high of 97 in MSP today. Could make a run at 100 tomorrow. Crispy out there.

[Spartman]

Time to punt June soon

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/heat-to-concentrate-over-the-western-u-s-this-month/957748

[Chicago Storm]

Time to punt June soon

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/heat-to-concentrate-over-the-western-u-s-this-month/957748

western us must have shifted location after the 2011 japan earthquake.




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[Hoosier]

What are we punting and why?  It's all so confusing.

[Chicago Storm]

What are we punting and why?  It's all so confusing.

the important thing to know is dayton has seen the highest temp it will see all month.


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[Spartman]

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

What are we punting and why?  It's all so confusing.

Based on the graphics, Brett seems to be hinting persistent troughing from the Midwest to the Northeast.

[Chinook]

This is a surprising statement, as other areas of the Dakotas get above 100 sometimes. Other record-breaking temps: Bismarck: 106, Jamestown: 102, Minot: 105, Dickinson: 97.

Quote

NWS Grand Forks

 

@NWSGrandForks

 

100 degrees has been reached here at the office. This is the first time Grand Forks has seen 100 degrees since 1989!  #mnwx #ndwx

 

[StormfanaticInd]

Next week is looking active thunderstorm wise. It about time

[TimB]

Looks like MSP’s low this morning was 78. If they don’t get below that by midnight (could be close), that would be the earliest they’ve ever recorded a low of 78 or above (6/7/11, which itself broke the previous record by over two weeks). It’s certainly not good, but the silver lining is it’s possibly better for public awareness if major population centers are setting these absurd records as opposed to places like International Falls or Bismarck that could be considered BFE to many people.

[beavis1729]

51 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Looks like MSP’s low this morning was 78. If they don’t get below that by midnight (could be close), that would be the earliest they’ve ever recorded a low of 78 or above (6/7/11, which itself broke the previous record by over two weeks). It’s certainly not good, but the silver lining is it’s possibly better for public awareness if major population centers are setting these absurd records as opposed to places like International Falls or Bismarck that could be considered BFE to many people.

The UHI at MSP is ridiculous. At first I thought it mostly occurred in the winter due to more lower albedo, less radiational cooling over snow cover, etc. But it’s just as bad in the summer.
 

St. Cloud, a bit north of MSP and much more rural, had a low of 70. 
 

It’s reasonable if UHI adds 2-3 degrees, but not 8. It’s a major problem that needs to be addressed by all of us, led by urban planners and engineers. 

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, TimB84 said:

Looks like MSP’s low this morning was 78. If they don’t get below that by midnight (could be close), that would be the earliest they’ve ever recorded a low of 78 or above (6/7/11, which itself broke the previous record by over two weeks). It’s certainly not good, but the silver lining is it’s possibly better for public awareness if major population centers are setting these absurd records as opposed to places like International Falls or Bismarck that could be considered BFE to many people.

I'm not sure how much an abnormally high low temperature does for overall public awareness.  Not even sure an abnormally hot high temperature does much.  I think longevity sticks in the consciousness of the general public more.  If there's a stretch of unmistakably, unusually hot temps, people will more easily be able to recall "remember back in _____ when it was so hot everyday"?

[nwohweather]

11 years ago today, the most powerful tornado I’ve ever encountered. Missed our neighborhood by a mile

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_June_5–6,_2010

[TimB]

2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

The UHI at MSP is ridiculous. At first I thought it mostly occurred in the winter due to more lower albedo, less radiational cooling over snow cover, etc. But it’s just as bad in the summer.
 

St. Cloud, a bit north of MSP and much more rural, had a low of 70. 
 

It’s reasonable if UHI adds 2-3 degrees, but not 8. It’s a major problem that needs to be addressed by all of us, led by urban planners and engineers. 

This is the thing. International Falls and Bismarck reaching temperatures weeks earlier than they ever have before is clearly much less affected by UHI and more by AGW, but it affects much fewer people so no one notices. There’s really no good answer here.

46 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm not sure how much an abnormally high low temperature does for overall public awareness.  Not even sure an abnormally hot high temperature does much.  I think longevity sticks in the consciousness of the general public more.  If there's a stretch of unmistakably, unusually hot temps, people will more easily be able to recall "remember back in _____ when it was so hot everyday"?

I’m afraid so, but even then, there will be plenty of “what about 1988” and “what about 1936”. Can’t win.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

This is the thing. International Falls and Bismarck reaching temperatures weeks earlier than they ever have before is clearly much less affected by UHI and more by AGW, but it affects much fewer people so no one notices. There’s really no good answer here.

I’m afraid so, but even then, there will be plenty of “what about 1988” and “what about 1936”. Can’t win.

I agree that there's no good answer. Min temps are rising more than max temps and very well may be a product of climate change more than UHI. It's interesting to me because the min averages continue to rise yet we are simultaneously seeing more extreme low temps too. But at the same time UHI is very real. When the disparity between 1st order sites and very nearby areas is far more extreme than it used to be, it's a legit issue to be discussed.

 

The general public can't even remember basic weather from last week much less the difference between weather and climate. That said, I don't see what's wrong with bringing up old heatwaves. it's no different than bringing up old snowstorms as we all do haha. The heat that we saw in the 1930s-50s reign king over anything modern day in many places. The heat was horrendous and deadly and actually I've been researching some old newspapers (remember this is pre air conditioning). As for record early heat in Bismarck, I don't look at that as anything. we had record smashing cold never seen as early as we did in Nov 2019...which was followed by a mild winter.

[frostfern]

14 hours ago, Hoosier said:

What are we punting and why?  It's all so confusing.

I just don't get excited at all over temperature records and droughts... as opposed to actual weather.  Might as well move to southern California if that's all we have to talk about these days.

[cyclone77]

First 90 degree day here/DVN/MLI today.  MSP is already up to 98 as of 2pm, very impressive.  A few 100 degree readings in southwest MN already.

[madwx]

17 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

First 90 degree day here/DVN/MLI today.  MSP is already up to 98 as of 2pm, very impressive.  A few 100 degree readings in southwest MN already.

also tagged our first 90 here.  

[IWXwx]

@Hoosier The discussion concerning UHI reminded me of a discussion a few days ago about LAF. You and Tim mentioned a long-time sensor issue, but it also could be UHI. Coincidentally, a forecaster at IND mentioned it in the early morning discussion today, calling it a "micro-climate."  

"HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA EXCEEDING 90, MOST NAMELY LAFAYETTE WHERE A WARMER MICROCLIMATE HAS BEEN OBSERVED"