The Dude Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Thank you! It's good to know my lack of sleep is actually creating something of value for people. Most definitely. Thanks for sharing your thoughts! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 46 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Looks like recon found reliable 40kt surface winds. Close call on whether there’s enough of an LLC to name. Probably just enough IMO. I feel they have named worse! LOL! I think we have just enough as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Looking forward to the official naming so we can start all of the Yabba Dabba Do references. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 10, 2021 Author Share Posted August 10, 2021 The recon earlier didn't find enough evidence of a closed center, so it wasn't designated. It looks pretty solid on visible satellite right now though. We're not far off from our next named system of the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 1 hour ago, jacindc said: Looking forward to the official naming so we can start all of the Yabba Dabba Do references. WIIIIIILMA! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 My lights are already flickering 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, Yeoman said: My lights are already flickering May want to have your neutral checked. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 10, 2021 Author Share Posted August 10, 2021 Invest 95L has been designated in the eastern Atlantic. Looks like August 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 The 18z GFS has the mythical up the bay track for a tropical system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The 18z GFS has the mythical up the bay track for a tropical system Well not quite "up the bay" but a heck of a track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 I think we can stick a fork in TD six...between the mountains and that upper level low in Florida, it looks like a turd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 There we go. Now it’s on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 2 hours ago, Kmlwx said: The 18z GFS has the mythical up the bay track for a tropical system A tradition unlike any other! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 Don’t want to get too far ahead of myself, but 95L has a high ceiling to me. The environment ahead looks good for development and this could be another long range US threat given the steering pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Larry Cosgrove thinks East Coast will get hit by hurricanes this summer/fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 23 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: When sub forums were introduced I was quietly opposed. But I was wrong and now I rarely venture out of the Mid Atlantic. lol same. 9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Don’t want to get too far ahead of myself, but 95L has a high ceiling to me. The environment ahead looks good for development and this could be another long range US threat given the steering pattern. ive got a beach trip in a month. need you on top of these invests for me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 7 hours ago, Jebman said: Larry Cosgrove thinks East Coast will get hit by hurricanes this summer/fall. He says a lot of things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Fred looks dead this morning. Lost a bit of oomph overnight so it will struggle going over the DR today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 7 hours ago, H2O said: Fred looks dead this morning. Lost a bit of oomph overnight so it will struggle going over the DR today It's going to be a couple of ugly days for Fred due to land interaction and shear on the other side. Not much else to say until it at least passes DR/Haiti. Still looks like a favorable environment in the Gulf though. Edit: hours 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 Let’s see if Fred can do something the next day or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 13, 2021 Share Posted August 13, 2021 P sad when there are TDs in the Atl and more posts made in the winter thread 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 13, 2021 Author Share Posted August 13, 2021 This is a really helpful illustration of what to look for in developing but sheared tropical systems. You can see this very clearly tonight with Fred, as the convection is held downshear and cannot wrap around the LLC. It’s very hard to get significant organization and eventual intensification without this alignment process taking place. It’s easier to see on visible but we can make it work. Basically shear is generally pushing Fred’s convection from west to east, so you can see that despite the convective blowup, it remains downshear, and isn’t wrapping or firing to the west of the center. Let’s compare to Linda in the eastern Pacific. Obviously a good bit stronger but why is that? Note how the deepest convection is at the right/north side of the center at the very beginning, but wraps around the center. This process allows for the “feedback loop” of pressure drops and wind increases that allow for intensification. In a lower shear environment, Linda is able to vertically align and fully wrap convection around a core. This is why wind shear and vector is so important to TC genesis and intensification in a nutshell. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted August 13, 2021 Share Posted August 13, 2021 On 8/11/2021 at 6:22 AM, Eskimo Joe said: He says a lot of things. In this particular case, I think he will be correct. East Coast will get smashed by numerous major hurricanes. I think Florida and the Outer Banks are going to get utterly demolished, especially Miami. It is going to be very concerning the number of rapidly intensifying tropical entities that will smash into FL this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 13, 2021 Author Share Posted August 13, 2021 On 8/10/2021 at 7:06 PM, Kmlwx said: The 18z GFS has the mythical up the bay track for a tropical system If you liked that run, you’ll LOVE the 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 13, 2021 Share Posted August 13, 2021 28 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: If you liked that run, you’ll LOVE the 00z run MEH! Would rather it go west of us That's a wild run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 13, 2021 Share Posted August 13, 2021 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: If you liked that run, you’ll LOVE the 00z run I’ll go chase that!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 13, 2021 Share Posted August 13, 2021 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: If you liked that run, you’ll LOVE the 00z run OMG, no thank you. We're in OBX that week and would prefer no evacuation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 13, 2021 Share Posted August 13, 2021 Dat sit and stall is hilarious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 13, 2021 Author Share Posted August 13, 2021 All kidding aside, I’ve been intrigued by 95L for a while. Fred is struggling in large part because it ran itself through the mountains of DR/Haiti, but if 95L can avoid that fate, it has a high ceiling IMO. Probably gets designated as a PTC later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 13, 2021 Author Share Posted August 13, 2021 LOL NHC must have heard me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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