WxUSAF Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 28 minutes ago, H2O said: lots of SAL to flush out in the next couple weeks before i see anything popping Wouldn’t mind fairly quiet tropics for my OCMD trip at the end of July and then FL trip in early August. Then it can go nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Wouldn’t mind fairly quiet tropics for my OCMD trip at the end of July and then FL trip in early August. Then it can go nuts. Dont fret the OC trip. No Gloria for you. FL tho? Eeeeehhhhhhhhh, thats gonna be sketchy. Its their year. Gulf coast and NC/SC had it the last couple. Time to make an example of the worst state in the south(tough call tho) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, H2O said: Dont fret the OC trip. No Gloria for you. FL tho? Eeeeehhhhhhhhh, thats gonna be sketchy. Its their year. Gulf coast and NC/SC had it the last couple. Time to make an example of the worst state in the south(tough call tho) We’re going to Orlando, not the beach at least. Still would like to avoid tropical action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: We’re going to Orlando, not the beach at least. Still would like to avoid tropical action. Magic mountain still runs up to CAT 3 i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 17, 2021 Author Share Posted July 17, 2021 Feels pretty good getting a break before peak. My sleep numbers are looking much better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 19, 2021 Author Share Posted July 19, 2021 Get ready. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said: I don't like this leading up to the Winter, we would need a nice, organic -NAO. Regardless of your thoughts about this upcoming winter, this post actually fits well in this thread for other obvious reasons. IF ASO end up looking like this, things may be a bit more interesting. Hey, an extreme weather weenie can can always dream and cross his fingers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 19, 2021 Author Share Posted July 19, 2021 14 minutes ago, George BM said: Regardless of your thoughts about this upcoming winter, this post actually fits well in this thread for other obvious reasons. IF ASO end up looking like this, things may be a bit more interesting. Hey, an extreme weather weenie can can always dream and cross his fingers. Agree. You can see it on some of the seasonal guidance with a maritime Canada ridge. Classic landfall pattern for the US, specifically the east coast. Remains to be seen if that happens though. Steering pattern predictions are especially unskilled at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 3 hours ago, George BM said: Regardless of your thoughts about this upcoming winter, this post actually fits well in this thread for other obvious reasons. IF ASO end up looking like this, things may be a bit more interesting. Hey, an extreme weather weenie can can always dream and cross his fingers. Yeah, a lot of my analogs showed a trough/weakness in the GOM and SE for hurricane season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 What a dud of a season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 We're in Corolla in mid-August. Let's keep all tropical action far away then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: What a dud of a season. We aren't even at peak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 10 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: What a dud of a season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 8 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: We aren't even at peak. We’re not even *close to* peak! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 21, 2021 Author Share Posted July 21, 2021 He’s just throwing chum in the waters lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 21, 2021 Author Share Posted July 21, 2021 Might be worth watching something develop off the SE Coast as that front decays. 20% odds from the NHC this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 24, 2021 Author Share Posted July 24, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 Florida and Texas will probably see a few hurricanes this season. I'm not concerned at all because I live too far inland. Hurricanes rarely even get close to Austin. I'm safe. I am so happy I dont live in Miami! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 1, 2021 Share Posted August 1, 2021 GFS OP has a 954MB hurricane at the end of its run sitting well off the SE coast. Coincides with earlier posts about a favorable August. Keep that sht away from OBX as we’ll be there in 3 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted August 1, 2021 Share Posted August 1, 2021 GFS OP has a 954MB hurricane at the end of its run sitting well off the SE coast. Coincides with earlier posts about a favorable August. Keep that sht away from OBX as we’ll be there in 3 weeks.Lines up with my family vacation out there as well. This is why we usually don’t go to the beach in August! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 1, 2021 Author Share Posted August 1, 2021 Definitely a little signal for TC genesis during the first ten days of the month but I wouldn’t worry about steering right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 2, 2021 Author Share Posted August 2, 2021 August is here, which means we’re just a few weeks away from the start of the climatological peak. A lot of talk around the MJO happens, and as we look at a potentially favorable window near mid-month, it might be helpful to have a primer on MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 WB 12Z EURO tropical ensemble for mid August showing some signs of life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 5, 2021 Author Share Posted August 5, 2021 43 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO tropical ensemble for mid August showing some signs of life. Yeah watch the western MDR in particular. We should get a couple of waves that’ll have a chance with the more favorable MJO phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 5, 2021 Author Share Posted August 5, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted August 6, 2021 Share Posted August 6, 2021 I'd go with 20, into Nov, Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 WB 0Z EURO ensembles say keep an eye on east coast in about 9 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 8, 2021 Author Share Posted August 8, 2021 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable to support some gradual development over the next few days, and this system could become a tropical depression while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles late Monday, and then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and near Hispaniola around the middle of this week. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system, as it could bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of that area. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. 2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located over the tropical Atlantic about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles have diminished this morning. Although environmental conditions appear to be only marginally conducive for development, this system could still become a tropical depression later this week while it moves toward the west-southwest or west at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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