PrinceFrederickWx Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 2 hours ago, CAPE said: HH GFS Yeah I’m doubling down on my Isaias 2: Electric Boogaloo call for SoMD. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 Liking the path over the tidewater and wishing I didn’t have to come back so I could chase the remnants 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 Even if it’s kind of a pile of mush by the time it gets here, would tornados be a risk do you think, or just some breezy rain? I don’t like the idea of it passing through at night time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 I vote for the 6z HWRF 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 Just now, MN Transplant said: I vote for the 6z HWRF I second the 6z HWRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 3 hours ago, Rhino16 said: Even if it’s kind of a pile of mush by the time it gets here, would tornados be a risk do you think, or just some breezy rain? I don’t like the idea of it passing through at night time. Tornadoes are only a threat immediately along and on the east side of the track of the center. There isn't much guidance that takes the center west of the area, although some tracks are further west than others. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 GFS still wants nothing to do with impacts for west of the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 12z HWRF is slower, but still brings Elsa over the northern neck of VA and over the Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 Somebody is about to be cold smoked by this storm and I hope it's not one of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 WB 12Z EURO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 Conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 Well that’s different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 18z NAM. Pretty similar to Euro with track/placement of heavier rains. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 Euro and NAM are true heart breakers for I-95 and points west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 I’m in the NNK at the moment, so maybe I’ll get some gusts or something. Went home for Isaias, and there were tornados here. Hopefully none of that because I want to go to a party on Friday. Or maybe it can be moved to another day, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Euro and NAM are true heart breakers for I-95 and points west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 6, 2021 Author Share Posted July 6, 2021 This is WxWatcher007 reporting live for the first time in the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season from Clearwater, FL, where we have a Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning. Conditions have been relatively dry, but there have been some fairly strong breezes which have been increasing as Elsa approaches. A number of people have been out and about during the calm, but every person I've met so far is aware of the coming storm. Expecting a busy overnight period. 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: This is WxWatcher007 reporting live for the first time in the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season from Clearwater, FL, where we have a Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning. Conditions have been relatively dry, but there have been some fairly strong breezes which have been increasing as Elsa approaches. A number of people have been out and about during the calm, but every person I've met so far is aware of the coming storm. Expecting a busy overnight period. You probably know this but Elsa is a hurricane again. BULLETIN Hurricane Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 27A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 800 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 ...ELSA REGAINS HURRICANE STATUS SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA BAY... ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 83.1W ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 She looking pretty healthy on radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Haven't been down to Clearwater since the 1990's but remember the first and second visit vividly. The causeway that leads out there is very low. The first year I visited, there was a tropical depression offshore and the water was up to the shoulders at road level. Second time I was there, from Clearwater beach the GOM was as calm as glass and that was a truly impressive sight. Goodluck with your chase WxWatcher007. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 1 hour ago, CAPE said: This is what, the 3rd consecutive year where we missed tropical action? Terrible place to live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 35 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: This is what, the 3rd consecutive year where we missed tropical action? Terrible place to live. Do you mean so far or something else? Because it’s only July 6th! Interested to see what late summer brings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 8, 2021 Author Share Posted July 8, 2021 https://twitter.com/nwscpc/status/1413180073763508225?s=21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: https://twitter.com/nwscpc/status/1413180073763508225?s=21 I confess to being a snow watcher no longer as hung up on enso state as I used to be for snow around here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 3 hours ago, North Balti Zen said: I confess to being a snow watcher no longer as hung up on enso state as I used to be for snow around here. Yeah it kinda sucks that we can't rely on that as much...because now it's more difficult to know what we need to work to get warning level snow in the corridor again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 9, 2021 Author Share Posted July 9, 2021 For posterity...on July 4th the Euro had Elsa getting ripped apart off the SE Coast while the GFS had a system going into Florida and up part of the East Coast. Two days later hurricane warnings were issued for the Florida coast. Tropical tracking is not easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 9, 2021 Author Share Posted July 9, 2021 https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/content/tropical-storm-elsa-sets-records-2021-atlantic-hurricane-season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 9, 2021 Author Share Posted July 9, 2021 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 13, 2021 Author Share Posted July 13, 2021 I’m not on the hyperactive train yet with SSTs being what they are, but the other signals for another big peak are glaring. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 lots of SAL to flush out in the next couple weeks before i see anything popping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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