Stormfly Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 That may give oldtimers flashbacks from the Cuban Missile Crisis! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 WB 0Z EURO TS Probs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 3, 2021 Share Posted July 3, 2021 Sterling NWS discussion on Elsa from early Sunday am: Guidance is in overall good agreement in regards to the breakdown of the H5 ridge over the middle and later portion of next week as a strong 594dm ring of fire develops over the Southwestern US. However there is a good amount of spread amongst members in regards to the finer details, especially what, if any impacts we see from Elsa. The GFS has been hinting that the remnants of Elsa track up the Appalachians Wednesday into Thursday as a Bermuda high, associated with the aforementioned H5 ridging persists closer to the east coast. If this verifies correctly, could see potential flooding impacts across the CWA. On the other hand, the ECMWF and GEM track Elsa just to our south and east. What`s interesting is the fact that the EC/GEPS/GEFS are more in agreement that the upper level trough is more progressive and the Bermuda High is shifted further east. This would allow Elsa to track more out to sea. Furthermore, the trend in the NAO shows a peak just shy under 1 STD which doesn`t indicate a strong Bermuda high, especially closer to the coast, and will likely have some wiggle room to shift more eastward. This all hints at a solution that allows Elsa`s track to not affect the CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 3, 2021 Author Share Posted July 3, 2021 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 WB 18Z GFS late afternoon Tuesday has Elsa on west coast of Florida; EURO on east side…..NHC is hugging GFS in its official track at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 Too far east. West need this another 100 miles west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 Overnight runs greatly diminish any tropical storm threat to Mid Atlantic. WB 0Z EURO and 6Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 WB 6Z EURO caved to GFS track, while no effect on DMV outcome worth noting GFS did a better job with the track as we watch for later storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 4, 2021 Author Share Posted July 4, 2021 33 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EURO caved to GFS track, while no effect on DMV outcome worth noting GFS did a better job with the track as we watch for later storms. GFS off to another good start this season 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 WB 12Z GFS shifted Elsa rains NW to just SE of DC for TH. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS shifted Elsa rains NW to just SE of DC for TH. Yeah, the steering flow along the east coast in the 12z GFS has more of a southerly component than previous runs, which allows Elsa to come further west. It seems to be in response to the midwest upper trough being a little bit stronger. Will be interesting to see whether this cycle is a blip or is legitimately catching on to a trend. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 5, 2021 Author Share Posted July 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS shifted Elsa rains NW to just SE of DC for TH. Probably good for some decent wind at the coast too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 FWIW, the 12z Canadian is similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 5, 2021 Author Share Posted July 5, 2021 31 minutes ago, George BM said: FWIW, the 12z Canadian is similar. Looks like the Ukmet as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 5, 2021 Author Share Posted July 5, 2021 39 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Looks like the Ukmet as well. Edit: it's northwest of the 00z run but still a miss for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 5, 2021 Author Share Posted July 5, 2021 Euro gone wild for some coastal sections lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Euro gone wild for some coastal sections lol. Does rain make it back this way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Euro gone wild for some coastal sections lol. I take it that is a crush job for Cape May. Pray for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 5, 2021 Author Share Posted July 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, frd said: Does rain make it back this way? No 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 Trend = our friend?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 yeah the Euro is too far southeast. We will work on this for a few more days I suspect that it's too slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 5, 2021 Author Share Posted July 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: yeah the Euro is too far southeast. We will work on this for a few more days I suspect that it's too slow. It was definitely slower this run. Maybe there is a trend here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 5, 2021 Author Share Posted July 5, 2021 17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Trend = our friend?? Trend right up the Bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 5, 2021 Author Share Posted July 5, 2021 EPS looks west of the op. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 HH GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 5, 2021 Author Share Posted July 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: HH GFS Heck of a way to run a drought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 Elsa, do your worst. I dare you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 28 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Elsa, do your worst. I dare you. Pfsh. She’ll just run away like in the movie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 Put Elsa up over US 15 and lets get trollnadoes for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 49 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Put Elsa up over US 15 and lets get trollnadoes for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now