WxWatcher007 Posted June 30, 2021 Author Share Posted June 30, 2021 97L this morning 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 Do I have to be the one to call attention to late next week on the GFS and GGEM? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Do I have to be the one to call attention to late next week on the GFS and GGEM? Yes. It's your turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 30, 2021 Author Share Posted June 30, 2021 If I get time maybe I’ll do a post on track guidance. In the meantime, bookmark this thread: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 Lets see how well it does as it chugs along the Carib 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 I’m mentally preparing myself for tons of frozen/let it go related Dad jokes. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 30, 2021 Author Share Posted June 30, 2021 1 hour ago, H2O said: Lets see how well it does as it chugs along the Carib Bingo. The eastern Caribbean called the graveyard for a reason. Those trades are tough to deal with. That said, if it gets to the western Caribbean watch out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 Shouldn't a storm named Elsa be churning in the Bering Sea or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 1 hour ago, smokeybandit said: Shouldn't a storm named Elsa be churning in the Bering Sea or something? I'm sure in 4-5 months from now the Weather Channel will have at least one storm on its list named Anna, Kristoff, or Olaf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 1, 2021 Author Share Posted July 1, 2021 Should be a depression at 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Should be a depression at 11. We have Elsa. Que all the memes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 3 hours ago, H2O said: We have Elsa. Que all the memes Just waking up--one of the first headlines I see...and now the song is back in my head, lolol (ya know I actually like the song from a musical perspective!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 1, 2021 Author Share Posted July 1, 2021 This latest GFS run is ugly for the west coast of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: This latest GFS run is ugly for the west coast of Florida. The mythical Tampa track. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 1, 2021 Author Share Posted July 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The mythical Tampa track. Almost as mythical as our annual up the bay run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 1, 2021 Author Share Posted July 1, 2021 For those of you wondering what to watch for today. Forward motion of 25kts is SCREAMING fast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 WB OZ EURO TD probs and GFS 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Yup. GFS gets whats left of Elsa near us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 Doesn’t matter much but that image actually underplays what would be a fairly significant coastal event verbatim on the GFS. At any rate all subject to change as the guidance gets recon data. Definitely something to watch at this latitude. 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Couple quick points: 1. Looking at the radar loop and IR, it seems pretty clear that Elsa’s convective burst overnight did a lot to help develop an inner core. Critically, it’s not complete, which means any organizational progress we’re seeing now is fragile, so we need to see what happens today. That said, what we see so far IMO increases the odds of survival in the eastern Caribbean. 2. The guidance, despite having a large spread, hasn’t really shifted a lot. Of course, there are wobbles here and there but the general evolution hasn’t fundamentally changed. Folks in Florida and the SE coast shouldn’t be waiting for the guidance to have consensus to start preparing. 3. Recon has taken off and is en route. A lot of flights are planned and both low level recon and the high altitude environmental sampling will be huge for intensity and track forecasting. I wouldn’t get caught up in the guidance really until it has had time to initialize on actual observational data. The presentation overall this morning is significantly better than it was 12 hours ago. The only thing slowing this down right now, is the practically supersonic speed lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 Hurricane Elsa Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 745 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 ...ELSA STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE... Surface observations from Barbados indicate that Elsa's maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph, and the cyclone is now a hurricane. A special advisory will be issued within the hour in place of the normal intermediate advisory. The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued Hurricane Warning for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines. The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has issued a Hurricane Warning for St. Lucia. The Meteorological Service of Barbados reported a sustained wind of 74 mph and a gust to 86 mph. SUMMARY OF 745 AM AST...1145 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 59.8W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF BARBADOS ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven/Latto/Zelinsky 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 I’m not liking the GFS, that looks like an Isaias repeat IMBY. That should change after recon hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 6 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: I’m not liking the GFS, that looks like an Isaias repeat IMBY. That should change after recon hopefully. Probably will change, but the possibility is legit IMO. Stronger systems have had further west tracks on the ensembles and so far at least...this is verifying stronger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 15 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: I’m not liking the GFS, that looks like an Isaias repeat IMBY. That should change after recon hopefully. That brought quite a strong tornado near me. None of us need that here this early. Or at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 2 hours ago, Rhino16 said: That brought quite a strong tornado near me. None of us need that here this early. Or at all. Better than a direct hit 50 percent of the time. Better only if you like destruction. @Damage In Tolland 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Same pattern for the last four years lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 51 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: Same pattern for the last four years lol Enjoy your tropical lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 3, 2021 Author Share Posted July 3, 2021 Took forever, but the euro finally caught onto the track. Should be impacts up the coast but a lot is dependent on the next 24-36 hours and land interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 3, 2021 Author Share Posted July 3, 2021 Not sure why I’m posting them since they’ve been terrible but here ya go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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