MN Transplant Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 Sam is now the #1 ACE system in the 2021 Atlantic season 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 This is wild! https://fb.watch/8lO69zmMAG/ 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 The 6z GFS is quite interesting. Still 10+days out, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 20 hours ago, MN Transplant said: Sam is now the #1 ACE system in the 2021 Atlantic season You got that right. Thank goodness for that track. Bermuda is quite hardened against storms but this would be far worse than Fabian! And if this steamed NW towards Delmarva, well it would be quite serious easily the worst tropical for this area for most of us in our lifetimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 1, 2021 Author Share Posted October 1, 2021 50 minutes ago, Stormfly said: You got that right. Thank goodness for that track. Bermuda is quite hardened against storms but this would be far worse than Fabian! And if this steamed NW towards Delmarva, well it would be quite serious easily the worst tropical for this area for most of us in our lifetimes. Longest lived major in the Atlantic since 2017. Very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 Wow ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 Nothing like a 60 foot wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 2, 2021 Author Share Posted October 2, 2021 Atlantic Basin Update--10/1/21 Recap August was a busy month, with numerous US landfalls. September, however, was a month of contradictions. It was quieter in the landfall department, but we had Hurricane Larry make landfall in Atlantic Canada, Hurricane Nicholas make landfall in Texas, and Tropical Storm Mindy make landfall in Florida. We saw a lot of slop--with 9 named storms this season that lasted 2 days or less, the most since 2007. We also saw Major Hurricane Sam, which is only the 8th hurricane since 1966 to last more than one week at major hurricane strength according to Phil Klotzbach at CSU. Unfortunately, part of my forecast for the peak season between Aug 20 and Oct 20 is going to be a bust, with the number of named storms fully decoupling from my hurricane and major hurricane prediction. With Victor failing to reach hurricane status, that really locks up that fail. Peak Season Forecast (Actual) Named Storms: 13 (12) Hurricanes: 9 (4) Major Hurricanes: 5 (3) Image courtesy of Philip Klotzback & CSU Overview Tropical Storm Victor is likely to be the last Cape Verde (CV) system of the season. The MDR between the Antilles and coast of Africa, after struggling to develop positive SST anomalies during the early part of the season, warmed fairly dramatically during September, extending the traditional CV season through the end of September. That doesn't mean that we won't see more activity, as I expect strong waves to continue pushing through the region through the first two-thirds of October as the MJO remains favorable. Now, climatology shifts quickly toward the homebrew region of the SW Atlantic and western Caribbean. Shear Shear will be a critical factor in whether we see an active October. In a cool neutral ENSO, shear decreases in the Caribbean, and although shear looks strong currently, there does look to be a window approximately a week from now in the western Caribbean. The gif below shows 5-day anomaly averages, so a window can (and I think will) form in between this. In fact, looking at the daily numbers, the GEFS pops a window in the SW Atlantic and western Caribbean in approximately ten days. TCHP/OHC This area of the basin tends to be the warmest, and that's no different here. Although the depth of the heat is less than the outrageous 2020 season, the extent of the warmth is actually a little larger than 2020, particularly in the Gulf and along the SE coast. This heightens the risk for hurricanes and major hurricanes, provided disturbances can develop in a window of reduced shear. The western part of the basin will likely need to wait until the suppressed phase of the CCKW passes this week, but we're already starting to see a growing signal for development in the long range. Steering PatternGoing back to my steering pattern discussion on September 11th, I didn't make the best call lol. The recurves continued, though Larry did find a way to make landfall in Atlantic Canada. The short lived Odette was shunted off the east coast while Sam has stayed well out to sea. I think this is because we had too much activity in the basin. The ridging was there, but with so many weak systems and non-tropical lows/troughs weakening the central Atlantic ridge, anything developing in the basin has followed the weakness well out to sea. October gets complicated. On one hand, homebrew systems, especially in the western Caribbean, greatly increase landfall odds with so many landmasses nearby. On the other, October brings more fronts and troughs that become kickers for systems trying to move westward. The caveat to that, is the prevalence of cutoff lows we've seen so far. As a result, I'm a bit gun shy on landfall chances in October, though I do not think the US is done at all with threats. That's normal. The EPS and GEFS show ridging likely being dominant for the first two-thirds of the month, increasing chances of close calls off the SE coast or landfalls in the Caribbean, but we really need to see what the in-situ steering pattern is before having greater confidence in calling for anything higher than the climatological average of landfall IMO. Atlantic Areas of InterestCurrently, there is no specific disturbance to focus on. In fact, the NHC does not have a even a lemon in the basin for the first time in a while. I know the GFS is showing development, but just as I tell folks to be careful when there isn't a surface signal on the operational guidance, be careful of the GFS being overzealous in developing western Caribbean phantoms as well this time of year. Analyze the environment and look for the subtle signal. There are two zones to watch. 1) Western Caribbean--This isn't a surprise as climo starts to favor it, but in the next 7-10 days we could see some development in the region as a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean moves west and slows down. I'd lean toward the latter end of this 7-10 day range, as we see the suppressed stage of the CCKW/MJO. 2) Western Atlantic--This is a more tricky signal to decipher, as I think it may be driven by what happens in the Caribbean. The guidance tries to sharpen some type of wave or disturbance next week, but while the GFS is slower and more aggressive off the SE coast, the Euro and others keep things broad and unable to develop. Worth watching casually, but a lower shot deal at this point. October is often the last hurrah for hurricane season. Happy hunting. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 Do I or do I not tell my dad he wasn't that great as a tropical system? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 4 hours ago, fourseasons said: Do I or do I not tell my dad he wasn't that great as a tropical system? He’s always got this guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 3, 2021 Author Share Posted October 3, 2021 Lemon now for the area in the SW Atlantic. Signal still doesn’t look particularly strong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 13 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: He’s always got this guy. Phonetic punctuation! I did tell him (phrased it differently) and after I explained exactly what I meant he thought it was funny. I'm sure he'll tell at least one person at church today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 In this backdrop we have post-tropical Sam and a unusual path. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 6, 2021 Author Share Posted October 6, 2021 The mindset is quickly transitioning from tropical to winter, but as expected we’re starting to see a slightly stronger signal for activity as we get toward the 10th and onward. A little low is trying to form off the SE but is getting sheared to hell currently. Could become some type of coastal off the Mid-Atlantic this weekend and the start of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 Hmmm... LWX AFD from this afternoon: The pattern for Saturday remains uncertain at this time as it will be heavily dependent on a coastal low off the Carolina coast. Models have differing solution with the GFS keeping a strong high pressure / upper ridge over the NE US which prevents the coastal low from moving northward toward our region. On the other hand, the Euro is weaker with the high and allows the low to bring areas of 1 to 2 inches of precipitation to parts of our region. General trends have pushed precipitation to the late Saturday and into Sunday period with areas around and below DC experiencing the heaviest precipitation. The threat for flooding has increased especially if the coastal low shifts closer to the coast with flooding most likely to occur if the heaviest rain occurs over our metro areas. There is the possibility that our region remains mostly dry this weekend especially if the GFS solution comes true. Temperatures on Saturday will be slightly cooler in the 70s with overnight lows in upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Come Sunday, guidance continues to diverge on how it handles an upper level trough across the Eastern Seaboard. Guidance varies in developing an upper level low and a coastal low along a surface trough. The potential surface low is being monitored by the NHC for potential tropical development off the SE US coast (see nhc.noaa.gov for the latest). Regardless if this system officially becomes named a tropical system, heavy rain and gusty winds are possible Sunday mainly east of the Blue Ridge. Impacts are highly dependent on the track of the surface low, and considerable uncertainty remains. Regardless, if the low moves nearby, it should be out of the area by Sunday night with dry weather returning early next week as upper level ridging builds across the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 8, 2021 Author Share Posted October 8, 2021 Both areas of interest have ended up being legit, as the western Caribbean had more favorable development conditions but the wave in question will end up developing in the Pacific. Meanwhile, the slop off the east coast probably develops into a coastal low, even though it’ll likely be non-tropical. Too much shear in the SW Atlantic right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 8, 2021 Author Share Posted October 8, 2021 92L up to 40% odds now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 16, 2021 Author Share Posted October 16, 2021 Winding down… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 21, 2021 Author Share Posted October 21, 2021 Welp, time to shut it down. Forecast was a bust. We're on to winter. Grade: C Peak Season Forecast (Actual) Named Storms: 13 (11) Hurricanes: 9 (4) Major Hurricanes: 5 (3) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Welp, time to shut it down. Forecast was a bust. We're on to winter. Grade: C Peak Season Forecast (Actual) Named Storms: 13 (11) Hurricanes: 9 (4) Major Hurricanes: 5 (3) You didn't see the 18z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 21, 2021 Author Share Posted October 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: You didn't see the 18z GFS? Tossed violently across the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 26, 2021 Author Share Posted October 26, 2021 It might almost be November, but we have an orange off the East Coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 On 10/20/2021 at 11:07 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Welp, time to shut it down. Forecast was a bust. We're on to winter. Grade: C Peak Season Forecast (Actual) Named Storms: 13 (11) Hurricanes: 9 (4) Major Hurricanes: 5 (3) Im dropping my grade to a D. It was a ONE storm season. I got some things wrong but so did the super casters. It WASNT an east coast season and contrary to just about every expert who said it would be a back ended super active oct/nov it wasnt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 10 hours ago, ldub23 said: Im dropping my grade to a D. It was a ONE storm season. I got some things wrong but so did the super casters. It WASNT an east coast season and contrary to just about every expert who said it would be a back ended super active oct/nov it wasnt. I have a question. What would be an A grade from you? Also calling that the season is dead every season all season means by random chance you will be right at some point and the super casters got a lot less wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 4 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: I have a question. What would be an A grade from you? Also calling that the season is dead every season all season means by random chance you will be right at some point and the super casters got a lot less wrong. I have high standards. 2004/05 would be an A+++++. 2007 a C+. 1996/99 that had east coast action a B+. 1985-A-. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 31, 2021 Author Share Posted October 31, 2021 NHC will initiate advisories on Subtropical Storm Wanda, located over the central Atlantic, at 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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