MJO812 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: I think that one has a good shot to impact land, and the Antilles should definitely be watching. These low latitude lows generally have a much easier trek west. As for the US, still too far out.. Gfs keeps correcting south and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 WB 12Z EURO ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 22, 2021 Author Share Posted September 22, 2021 TD 18 has formed and is expected to become a major hurricane in the next 5 days. That should help me get back on track as all the recent slop has decoupled my named storm prediction from my hurricane/major prediction… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 00z Euro would definitely suggest a hit nearby if it's Day 10 position were to be correct of soon to be Sam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 23, 2021 Author Share Posted September 23, 2021 6 hours ago, yoda said: 00z Euro would definitely suggest a hit nearby if it's Day 10 position were to be correct of soon to be Sam Yeah it’s a close approach/landfall steering pattern on the operational. Ensembles aren’t there though, and quite honestly the GFS would need to really show the potential to make me trust the euro. Watch out for some potential homebrew in early October too. Some weak signals starting to show.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 23, 2021 Author Share Posted September 23, 2021 Hey there, Sammy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 24, 2021 Author Share Posted September 24, 2021 So far…expect Sam to add some ACE to the total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: So far…expect Sam to add some ACE to the total. In the past you would have been able to recite the names between L and S.. but in recent years there have been so many more depressions being inappropriately upgraded to storms that you get these crazy seasons... 2004-2005 were big seasons. 2020 -2021 is about policy and funding. I guess more storms mean more money.. 2 4 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 24, 2021 Author Share Posted September 24, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 24, 2021 Author Share Posted September 24, 2021 32 minutes ago, rclab said: Good morning W007. Perhaps it’s time to create/introduce us to the Reapers tropical season sibling, The Sweeper. As always ….. That’s a heck of a business idea. I’ve already had the guys in marketing do a mock up. THE SWEEPER Pushing tropical cyclones and weenies into the abyss since 1492. 2 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 24, 2021 Author Share Posted September 24, 2021 NHC says in their 2pm that they may start advisories on 99L later this afternoon. Finally a little homebrew Also, regardless of how this 12z run ends, this is a pretty interesting Euro run. Still weenie fodder at this range though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: That’s a heck of a business idea. I’ve already had the guys in marketing do a mock up. THE SWEEPER Pushing tropical cyclones and weenies into the abyss since 1492. Good afternoon W007. As the reapers brother is sweeping them out to sea you may want to invest in a new resort, possibly called the bunker. I may book a niche depending on whether the brothers senior Aunt is working the warm season. As always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 Looks like Sam is well on his way to cat 4 at least. very impressive sat. this am. Thankfully looks to be a fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 40 minutes ago, weatherCCB said: Looks like Sam is well on his way to cat 4 at least. very impressive sat. this am. Thankfully looks to be a fish. Way too early to say that right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Way too early to say that right now I’ll join him in saying it. Maybe the Canadian maritimes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 25, 2021 Author Share Posted September 25, 2021 I’m strongly inclined to say no direct US impacts as well, but given that the modeled cutoff is shifting in some cases hundreds of miles between runs I think it’s most prudent to wait for recon to sample the steering environment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’ll join him in saying it. Maybe the Canadian maritimes. I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 25, 2021 Author Share Posted September 25, 2021 On 9/21/2021 at 11:02 AM, WxWatcher007 said: I expected a somewhat active MDR, but like last season it’s been virtually all slop. Peter overperformed, but did not become a hurricane. Rose was low grade. 98L is on the horizon with probably the best environment yet of the recent waves/systems and a much lower latitude. Peak Season Forecast (Actual) Named Storms: 13 (9) Hurricanes: 9 (3) Major Hurricanes: 5 (2) What was once 98L was able to take advantage of the favorable environment, and has now become Major Hurricane Sam. Subtropical Storm Teresa also formed. As I mentioned before, my named storm forecast has completely decoupled from the hurricane and MH forecast as a lot of slop has formed. Now I am way ahead of where I need to be on named storms, behind on hurricanes, and exactly where I need to be on majors. Frustrating, but overall the forecast still looks...ok... Peak Season Forecast (Actual) Named Storms: 13 (11) Hurricanes: 9 (4) Major Hurricanes: 5 (3) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 25, 2021 Author Share Posted September 25, 2021 This is about as beautiful an inner core presentation as you'll ever see. Sammy doing work. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 25, 2021 Author Share Posted September 25, 2021 I'm pumped to see what recon finds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 25, 2021 Author Share Posted September 25, 2021 My goodness. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 52 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I'm pumped to see what recon finds. A hurricane? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 25, 2021 Author Share Posted September 25, 2021 Just shy of Category 5 based on the data so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26, 2021 Author Share Posted September 26, 2021 This is a full on five bun dropsonde. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 26, 2021 Share Posted September 26, 2021 54 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: This is a full on five bun dropsonde. That is the most erect dropsonde reading ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 26, 2021 Share Posted September 26, 2021 Incredible !!!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 26, 2021 Share Posted September 26, 2021 Pretty cool animation from Stu 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26, 2021 Author Share Posted September 26, 2021 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 29, 2021 Author Share Posted September 29, 2021 Signal looks a little stronger for some weak development in the homebrew region next week. CV season likely ends with 90L. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now