Maestrobjwa Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: WPC has mentioned the door being open for a high risk upgrade, especially in parts of PA. That in itself is incredible. Western MD, WV and PA needs to pay close attention to this one. Same folks that get all the snow...now get all the tropical...of course 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: WPC has mentioned the door being open for a high risk upgrade, especially in parts of PA. That in itself is incredible. Western MD, WV and PA needs to pay close attention to this one. Still open in morning disco Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 429 AM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Day 2 Valid 12Z Wed Sep 01 2021 - 12Z Thu Sep 02 2021 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM THE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic northeast into southeast New York and southern New England... Very heavy rainfall will continue to spread northeastward on Wednesday across portions of the central Appalachians, central/northern Mid-Atlantic region, and up across southeast NY and southern New England as the extratropical low center of Ida makes its way across northern VA, central/eastern MD and southern NJ before then heading offshore to the south of Long Island. Moisture and instability will continue to surge northward around its eastern flank and over a rather strong frontal zone draped across the region. Enhanced moisture convergence, strong frontogenetical and isentropic ascent just north of the front, and focused right-entrance region upper jet dynamics over the region will foster locally several inches of rain, including the potential for some areas to see 4 to 6+ inches totals from the WV/MD Panhandles east/northeast across south-central PA. A fairly broad Moderate Risk area is again highlighted to account for the latest forecast guidance and storm track of Ida. While a High Risk area may ultimately be needed, but too much uncertainty lingers to Ida's exact path at this point to warrant an upgrade now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 I'm 11 days from our beach vacation, can we put a bubble around Myrtle so we are tropical system free? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 16 minutes ago, mappy said: I'm 11 days from our beach vacation, can we put a bubble around Myrtle so we are tropical system free? lol Invite @EastCoast NPZ to your vacation, that should do it! 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 8 minutes ago, GATECH said: Invite @EastCoast NPZ to your vacation, that should do it! Good thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 31, 2021 Author Share Posted August 31, 2021 Probably worth a separate thread for Ida remnants IMO. This is going to be a high end event for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Probably worth a separate thread for Ida remnants IMO. This is going to be a high end event for someone. @SnowenOutThere created one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Probably worth a separate thread for Ida remnants IMO. This is going to be a high end event for someone. So thread named: Sept 1 Storms or Ida Potato wedges Obs: Congrats Short Pump and PA, sorry NPZ see what i did there? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Just now, mappy said: @SnowenOutThere created one please rename thread to my suggestion. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 So I am from where this storm hit head on. My dad worked in Port Fourchon. I grew up in Larose. The church you see getting blown to smithereens? I went to that church a long time ago. The hospital with its roof peeling off was my local hospital. No idea how my mom's house fared. The pictures out of Lafourche are terrible. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 30 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: So I am from where this storm hit head on. My dad worked in Port Fourchon. I grew up in Larose. The church you see getting blown to smithereens? I went to that church a long time ago. The hospital with its roof peeling off was my local hospital. No idea how my mom's house fared. The pictures out of Lafourche are terrible. So sorry, Erin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: So sorry, Erin. Yes...Very sorry Erin! I hope your family and friends back there are all safe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 4, 2021 Author Share Posted September 4, 2021 This is the first weekend in almost a month that we don’t have a named TC threatening the US. Crazy busy August and early September. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 4, 2021 Author Share Posted September 4, 2021 Larry has become a major hurricane. There are actually few hurricane seasons in the record with this many majors this early. Opposite of last year and consistent with my forecast so far. Next possible one to watch is 91L as a weaker system. Peak Season Forecast (Actual) Named Storms: 13 (4) Hurricanes: 9 (2) Major Hurricanes: 5 (2) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 Larry is going to rack up some ACE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 43 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Larry is going to rack up some ACE. And, create an almost perfect surfing scenario for various East Coast beaches after the well timed cold frontal passage. West winds and awesome incoming swells. https://magicseaweed.com/Wildwood-Surf-Report/392/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 6, 2021 Author Share Posted September 6, 2021 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Again, that was the weirdest "Pure Imagination" I've ever heard...Willy Wonka went techno (or whatever you call that genre, lol) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 7, 2021 Author Share Posted September 7, 2021 17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Again, that was the weirdest "Pure Imagination" I've ever heard...Willy Wonka went techno (or whatever you call that genre, lol) I posted without even realizing there was music I was there for the gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 91L better do its thing and get a move on to the atlantic 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 8, 2021 Author Share Posted September 8, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 91L is TD13.. advisories start at 5pm ET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 51 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: 91L is TD13.. advisories start at 5pm ET NOPE! Tropical Storm Mindy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 9, 2021 Author Share Posted September 9, 2021 Hello Mindy! Peak Season Forecast (Actual) Named Storms: 13 (5) Hurricanes: 9 (2) Major Hurricanes: 5 (2) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 9, 2021 Author Share Posted September 9, 2021 Whenever I have time I'm going to try to do a basin update, but although things seem pretty quiet (it's hard for it not to when we go from nearly a month of direct threats to threats to Atlantic Canada lol) we're still humming along. Three areas to watch: 1) Eastern MDR Wave--Another African wave is likely to become our next named storm. The GFS has backed off on development, but the Euro remains bullish. The NHC has a 50% chance of development. It is expected to turn north rather quickly and won't be a threat to the US. 2) Bay of Campeche--Both the GFS and Euro have hinted at some potential development in the next few days in the BoC and western Gulf. Not thinking there's a high likelihood currently of anything happening as land interaction could be too detrimental to something significant forming, but if the disturbance trends a little further east that changes things. NHC currently has development odds at 30%. The BoC tends to be an excellent place for seedlings to grow so if given a little space from land this could become more interesting. 3) Bahamas/SE US--I've actually been watching this signal for a while now, and I think it's meaningful. I always say watch the environment, not the surface depictions on the operational guidance, and this is an example of that. If you look closely, most of the guidance has a broad disturbance developing in the Bahamas or off the SE coast in about 5-6 days. The environment looks sheared right now, but that's in large part due to a PV streamer and we know that those can change on the guidance quite a bit. The steering pattern would favor some east coast impacts, either with a ridge driving the disturbance into the SE coast like the Euro or a well timed trough pulling whatever this is north toward the NE. No odds on this one yet, but I think it's something to keep a casual eye on for now. From there it looks like there will be some other items on the table potentially, especially in the MDR. The MDR isn't ready to shut down yet. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 9, 2021 Author Share Posted September 9, 2021 Shows up nicely on the 12z GFS. Not to be taken verbatim, but the signal is there off the SE coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 10, 2021 Author Share Posted September 10, 2021 Both 1 & 2 have high odds of development now. Not invests yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Both 1 & 2 have high odds of development now. Not invests yet though. As long as they stay way from the South Carolina coast next week, find with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 Will not verify but fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 10, 2021 Author Share Posted September 10, 2021 26 minutes ago, mappy said: As long as they stay way from the South Carolina coast next week, find with me Thinking this is a late next week/weekend deal so you should be fine. But…you DON’T want to see tropical? That’s how I spend all my vacation time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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