IronTy Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 24 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said: LOL, we don't need this one! Me neither, everything around here is covered in algae. Even the frogs in my pond look exasperated. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Man NOLA got hammered pretty good and they never even really got into the inner eyewall, some of the videos outta NOLA downtown are wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Man NOLA got hammered pretty good and they never even really got into the inner eyewall, some of the videos outta NOLA downtown are wow. Dang...so 95% power outages was them getting off easy, smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30, 2021 Author Share Posted August 30, 2021 East side…a lot of ugly things happen on the east side of a hurricane. Flash Flood Emergency for NO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 WB 0Z 12K NAM brings widespread heavy rain to entire area…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 718 WTNT31 KNHC 300240 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Julian Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021 300 AM GMT Mon Aug 30 2021 ...JULIAN BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.1N 41.9W ABOUT 820 MI...1325 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 12 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z 12K NAM brings widespread heavy rain to entire area…. The nam typically is overdone with precip amounts. But even 1-3 for the majority of the area may cause problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30, 2021 Author Share Posted August 30, 2021 So much to unpack watching the terrible situation in LA unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Maybe someone can Collaborate…we all know this was never Katrina…..but to my knowledge Katrina was extremely strong long before landfall. Is there a difference between a hurricane with long sustained strength compared to a hurricane strengthening prior to landfall? I’ve always been under the impression that a hurricane strengthening prior to landfall sometimes doesn’t always translate to ground conditions compared to a storm with long sustained strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30, 2021 Author Share Posted August 30, 2021 32 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: Maybe someone can Collaborate…we all know this was never Katrina…..but to my knowledge Katrina was extremely strong long before landfall. Is there a difference between a hurricane with long sustained strength compared to a hurricane strengthening prior to landfall? I’ve always been under the impression that a hurricane strengthening prior to landfall sometimes doesn’t always translate to ground conditions compared to a storm with long sustained strength. IMO, a hurricane strengthening on landfall is far worse. It's easier for the winds to reach the surface because in a strengthening storm, the core is at its most efficient state (pressure dropping/winds increasing and/or wind field expanding). A good example of this actually comes from Katrina, but not when it was a 5 in the Gulf. It was intensifying upon landfall in Florida, and although it was a category one (IIRC), because it was intensifying on landfall the impacts in the state were worse than they would have been had it been steady state or weakening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30, 2021 Author Share Posted August 30, 2021 Also, time to update Peak Season Forecast (Actual) Named Storms: 13 (2) Hurricanes: 9 (1) Major Hurricanes: 5 (1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 40 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: IMO, a hurricane strengthening on landfall is far worse. It's easier for the winds to reach the surface because in a strengthening storm, the core is at its most efficient state (pressure dropping/winds increasing and/or wind field expanding). A good example of this actually comes from Katrina, but not when it was a 5 in the Gulf. It was intensifying upon landfall in Florida, and although it was a category one (IIRC), because it was intensifying on landfall the impacts in the state were worse than they would have been had it been steady state or weakening. Makes sense. Always have been curious about this. I think it would be an interesting study for sure. You would thing a long sustained cat 3-4 traversing the gulf prior to landfall would produce much more damage especially storm surge compared to a storm strengthening to a cat 3-4 or 5 right at landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30, 2021 Author Share Posted August 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: Makes sense. Always have been curious about this. I think it would be an interesting study for sure. You would thing a long sustained cat 3-4 traversing the gulf prior to landfall would produce much more damage especially storm surge compared to a storm strengthening to a cat 3-4 or 5 right at landfall. Surge is the caveat, good catch. That’s how Katrina was able to build such a massive surge. A big steady state major will likely have more storm surge than one that undergoes RI right before landfall. I was talking more about wind/rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Surge is the caveat, good catch. That’s how Katrina was able to build such a massive surge. A big steady state major will likely have more storm surge than one that undergoes RI right before landfall. I was talking more about wind/rain. Recall some of the compounding elements of the impact of Katrina was the failure of the levees and the failure of the main pumping stations. No implying the pumping stations could have kept up with the onslaught of the surge when the levees failed, but the failure of the pumps contributed to the longevity of the impact after the surge receded. Once the water inundated the wards that were supposed to be protected by the failed levees there was no way to pump it out. Will be interesting to see how the damage compares between Katrina and Ida in the coming days/weeks. Hopefully the $Billions spent on improving the levees and other infrastructure will prove the investment was worth it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 23 minutes ago, RDM said: Recall some of the compounding elements of the impact of Katrina was the failure of the levees and the failure of the main pumping stations. No implying the pumping stations could have kept up with the onslaught of the surge when the levees failed, but the failure of the pumps contributed to the longevity of the impact after the surge receded. Once the water inundated the wards that were supposed to be protected by the failed levees there was no way to pump it out. Will be interesting to see how the damage compares between Katrina and Ida in the coming days/weeks. Hopefully the $Billions spent on improving the levees and other infrastructure will prove the investment was worth it. I would say yes. At roughly $16 billion i would think improvements have been made. From the reports some areas outside the levee protection are bad but areas within are okay. The real question is a storm that sustains long term cat 3-4 strength how will that investment stand up? Again maybe I’m putting to much thought into it but i think it’s a legit conversation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 The GFS has pretty significantly adjusted southward with the track of the remnant low over the last 2 runs, more in line with most other guidance. Now takes the low track from about Charlottesville to Dover. Brings the more widespread heavier rains through our area. The best chances locally for severe would probably be from lower S MD/ lower eastern shore into eastern VA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 LWX morning AFD seems pretty Gung ho about Ida SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NOTE: Please refer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at hurricanes.gov for latest information on Ida. On Tuesday the frontal boundary will remain stalled over the region. Meanwhile, the remnants of Ida will be moving up the Tennessee Valley later in the day. While the first half of the day will likely be dry, as moisture flow increase ahead of the remnants of Ida, showers and thunderstorms become increasingly likely. More widespread and potentially heavy rain increases markedly after midnight Tuesday night in our western zones. The bulk of the remnants moves through our region on Wednesday however. Heavy rainfall is expected to overspread the region Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night as Ida interacts with the stalled frontal boundary overhead. The heaviest rainfall is expected over northern and western portions of the forecast area at this time, where the current forecast depicts 3-5 inches of rainfall (isolated amounts of 6"+ will be possible). Further south and east, rainfall amounts are no slouch either, with a general 2-4 inches expected (isolated higher amounts possible). For this reason, much of the area has been placed into a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall by the Weather Prediction Center (WPC). Instances of flash flooding will be possible (if not likely) with this much rainfall. Additionally, with this much rainfall occurring, we will likely see flooding issues in the main stem rivers in the coming days afterwards (looks like Thursday at this time). See the hydrology section below for more details. As the remnants of Ida move over the region Wednesday, areas south of the track of the low will also have a severe threat as is often the case in tropical remnants. Banded precipitation is expected and will allow for some amount of destabilization during the day. This, paired with an impressive low-mid level shear profile will result in a risk for some isolated tornadoes. A Marginal Risk for severe weather has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) as a result. Lastly, the remnants of Ida may still be packing some gusty sustained winds on Wednesday. The latest NHC forecast has 40 mph wind gusts possible. 850-925mb winds in some guidance is suggestive of 40-50 mph gusts perhaps in the higher terrain. So, will have to monitor the potential for a Wind Advisory needing to be issued should that trend continue. Will just have to see how much steam Ida has when it gets a little closer. For now, not going quite that high on winds gusts (will stick closer to 30 mph until things become a bit more certain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 5am NHC track has Ida basically right over DCA at 1am Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes could occur across the Mid-Atlantic States as the remnants of Ida move through the region on Wednesday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the northern Plains Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... The remnants of Hurricane Ida are forecast to be centered near the KY/WV/VA border intersection early Wednesday morning. Continued northeastward motion of the system is anticipated, taking it off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Wednesday night. Moist low-level southerly flow ahead of this system will likely bring mid 70s dewpoints into the Mid-Atlantic region, helping to increase instability. Additionally, a more banded storm structure is probable by this stage in its life cycle, result in the potential for modest diurnal heating between the bands. The resulting increase in instability suggests some tornado threat will persist throughout the eastern quadrant of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 454 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 MDZ001-003-501-502-VAZ026>031-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-301700- /O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0014.210901T0600Z-210902T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Garrett-Washington-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke- Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- Including the cities of Shepherdstown, Mount Storm, Charles Town, Cumberland, Winchester, Ruddle, Martinsburg, Woodstock, Bayard, Keyser, Luray, Berryville, Harrisonburg, New Market, Shenandoah, Moorefield, Mount Jackson, Front Royal, Antioch, Russelldale, Grantsville, Riverton, Hagerstown, Mountain Lake Park, Frostburg, Franklin, Fort Ashby, Elk Garden, Oak Flat, New Creek, Paw Paw, Sugar Grove, Romney, Brandywine, Headsville, Strasburg, Stanley, Oakland, Ridgeville, and Petersburg 454 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of Maryland, Virginia and West Virginia, including the following areas: in Maryland, Central and Eastern Allegany, Extreme Western Allegany, Garrett and Washington. In Virginia, Clarke, Frederick VA, Page, Rockingham, Shenandoah and Warren. In West Virginia, Berkeley, Eastern Grant, Eastern Mineral, Eastern Pendleton, Hampshire, Hardy, Jefferson, Morgan, Western Grant, Western Mineral and Western Pendleton. * From late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night. * The remnants of Ida will interact with a stalled front, resulting in a prolonged period of heavy rainfall beginning late Tuesday night and continuing through Wednesday evening. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with localized amounts up to 6 inches possible. * This amount of heavy rainfall will not only result in the potential for considerable flash flooding of creeks and small streams, but also the potential for river flooding on the main stem rivers. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 454 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ038>040-051>054-501-502- 505>507-301700- /O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0014.210901T1500Z-210902T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Greene-Madison- Rappahannock-Culpeper-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Including the cities of Elkton, South Gate, Bowie, Arlington, Annapolis, Manassas, Odenton, Westminster, Damascus, Falls Church, Silver Spring, Purcellville, Bethesda, Chantilly, Culpeper, Ballenger Creek, Centreville, Sterling, College Park, Reisterstown, Columbia, Warrenton, Herndon, Alexandria, Severna Park, Greenbelt, Germantown, Leesburg, McLean, Camp Springs, Rockville, Jarrettsville, Frederick, Arnold, Dale City, Big Meadows, Suitland-Silver Hill, Lake Ridge, Gaithersburg, Severn, Reston, Montclair, Baltimore, Madison, Eldersburg, Clinton, Glen Burnie, Ashburn, Ellicott City, Woodbridge, Stanardsville, Washington, Annandale, Franconia, Cockeysville, Lisbon, Laurel, Turnbull, and Aberdeen 454 AM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of DC, Maryland and Virginia, including the following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In Maryland, Anne Arundel, Carroll, Cecil, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Frederick MD, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford and Southern Baltimore. In Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Culpeper, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Greene, Madison, Northern Fauquier, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Rappahannock, Southern Fauquier and Western Loudoun. * From Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. * The remnants of Ida will interact with a stalled front, resulting in a prolonged period of heavy rainfall beginning Wednesday morning and continuing through Wednesday night. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with localized amounts up to 6 inches possible. * This amount of heavy rainfall will not only result in the potential for considerable flash flooding of creeks, small streams, and urban areas, but also the potential for river flooding on the main stem rivers. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 @EastCoast NPZ Hmmm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 14 minutes ago, yoda said: @EastCoast NPZ Hmmm Right smack in the middle. Will make my .3" of fail all the more impressive. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 That’s a lot of copy paste text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, H2O said: That’s a lot of copy paste text My job is done 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 44 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Right smack in the middle. Will make my .3" of fail all the more impressive. Wow just 0.3? I am going big and predicting 0.8 for my spot. If I did get 1.5 or 2" I would be shocked and happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 1 hour ago, yoda said: @EastCoast NPZ Hmmm School drop off and pick up will be interesting on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Mrs.J said: School drop off and pick up will be interesting on Wednesday. I think the heaviest is to come later in the day wednesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 51 minutes ago, Mrs.J said: School drop off and pick up will be interesting on Wednesday. Let them walk. It will toughen them up. Back when I went to school it was both ways uphill and downhill with snow drifts, lava and pterodactyls buzzing our heads 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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