MN Transplant Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Raining on @EastCoast NPZand not on @PrinceFrederickWx. Nah. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Euro With a track that inland we are likely to switch over to rain. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Just now, MN Transplant said: Raining on @EastCoast NPZand not on @PrinceFrederickWx. Nah. And that's how you know it is BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 WB EURO 5am Th. And GFS 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Raining on @EastCoast NPZand not on @PrinceFrederickWx. Nah. What was 00z showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Raining on @EastCoast NPZand not on @PrinceFrederickWx. Nah. Nice winter snow map. DC gets nada. NW jack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 15 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Raining on @EastCoast NPZand not on @PrinceFrederickWx. Nah. We get shafted….seems legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 35 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: We get shafted….seems legit. Probably woulda had to have tracked further east to start! (But then it would stayed south knowing our fortune, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 We are not the bullseye on the models but its a razor's edge....especially for N MD. There is likely to be additional qpf maxes locally. Look at what the models were printing out for Henri. Western CT --> NYC bullseye...in reality, NYC --> C NJ. With the center passing through our area I would not write off significant impacts just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Mount Holly AFD discussing the range of possibilities based on latest guidance and model discrepancies. If you don't want to read it all, the short version is.. GFS lol. The main story of the midweek period continues to be the potential for widespread heavy rain and associated hydro impacts primarily Wednesday into early Thursday in association with the remnants of Ida. Guidance remains fairly consistent with this threat, and many of the ingredients for a significant precipitation event appear to be in place including: 1.) Deep tropical moisture (PWATs potentially peaking near or even above 2.25 inches) being advected into the area in association with Ida`s remnants. 2.) Considerable UL synoptic lift in the right-entrance region of an UL jet streak positioned over the St.Lawrence River , and mid- lvl heights fall and DCVA ahead of both the northern trough and Ida`s circulation. 3.) Likely modest baroclinic forcing and low-lvl convergence associated with Ida`s circulation and developing fronts as it transitions extratropical. Although there are some discrepancies among guidance regarding the timing (the GFS per usual is faster) and track of the remnant low (the GFS is a northern outlier at the moment), there exists fairly good consensus for a widespread 2-4 inches with the potential for locally higher amounts. The only small positive will be that the system will be progressive with most of the totals likely coming in the period between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning (as mentioned still some minor timing discrepancies). As mentioned in the previous discussion there is a conditional tornado/severe threat if the remnants of Ida track far enough northwest which would result in the unstable warm sector encompassing more of our CWA. Fortunately, the consensus outside of the GFS would confine this threat to Delmarva and far southern NJ, but if a GFS-like track over the heart of the CWA were to verify the threat could reach up into the I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2021 Author Share Posted August 29, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 WB 18Z 12K NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 2 hours ago, MN Transplant said: Raining on @EastCoast NPZand not on @PrinceFrederickWx. Nah. We’re shifting to the winter map early I see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 I don't know what has more staying power: the cam near Grand Isle or Ida itself. One thing is, Ida seems to have quite a bit more video documentation than Laura. Laura was largely at night, though ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Icon drops about a foot of rain on Northern MD up into South Central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 16 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Nice piece of right- place- at- the- right- time- video. But, that roof seemed to give up easy. Wind noise should have been drowning out the (humorous) audio if it was that strong. Bit strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2021 Author Share Posted August 29, 2021 30 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: We’re shifting to the winter map early I see. Never too early to start breaking weenie spirits! 8 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said: I don't know what has more staying power: the cam near Grand Isle or Ida itself. One thing is, Ida seems to have quite a bit more video documentation than Laura. Laura was largely at night, though ... Yeah, it was all at night. Eyewall was post midnight and the power promptly went out lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 I am hoping for 1-2" out of this as we have a better chance with this kind of rain set-up than summer thunderstorms which almost always miss. My bar is 1.0 total 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 WB 18Z GFS now more in line with other models compared to its 12Z run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2021 Author Share Posted August 29, 2021 24 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS now more in line with other models compared to its 12Z run. Heartbreaker for those of us up north starving for action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 100 bucks says the dumpster on wheels in the Cantore shot was placed there 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Is it me or is this storm barely moving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 GFS finally caught on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: 100 bucks says the dumpster on wheels in the Cantore shot was placed there Make that a 1000. Watching his shots the wind is barely even making that thing wobble. And what would strong wind do to a dumpster on wheels in the middle of a street anyway? Yes, it would make it roll, not flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Don’t worry it’ll keep trending south- I am the Psuhoffman of non-winter storms 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: Don’t worry it’ll keep trending south- I am the Psuhoffman of non-winter storms LOL, we don't need this one! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 WB 18Z EURO of course went NW compared to 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: 100 bucks says the dumpster on wheels in the Cantore shot was placed there I was thinking the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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