nw baltimore wx Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Pretty cool watching this real-time. That loop @CAPE posted makes it look like the center is trying to clear out quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2021 Author Share Posted August 28, 2021 There is an eye, confirmed by the recon vortex data message (VDM), but it is not fully closed off. Hard to get big intensification before that happens. Gradual strengthening can happen though, especially on the NE side. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 14:24ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305Storm Name: IdaStorm Number & Year: 09 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 9Observation Number: 21 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 13:57:50ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 24.74N 85.93WB. Center Fix Location: 252 statute miles (405 km) to the WNW (297°) from Havana, Cuba.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,959m (9,708ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 985mb (29.09 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 200° at 9kts (From the SSW at 10mph)F. Eye Character: Open in the northwestG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 57kts (65.6mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the SSE (153°) of center fix at 13:48:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 236° at 57kts (From between the SW and WSW at 65.6mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the SSE (154°) of center fix at 13:50:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 63kts (72.5mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NW (311°) of center fix at 14:02:30ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 51° at 59kts (From the NE at 67.9mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NW (311°) of center fix at 14:04:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,037m (9,964ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,042m (9,980ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and PressureS. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 72kts (~ 82.9mph) which was observed 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the NE (43°) from the flight level center at 12:31:30ZMaximum Flight Level Temp: 14°C (57°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the SE (135°) from the flight level center 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Its got a little dry air between that one outer band and core. Feeder bands from the south are strong. I hope CAT 3 is the max it gets and glad if its lower 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 There is a national refuge between Lafayette and Baton Rouge. If the right eyewall can thread that needle, it’ll really keep the damage down. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Eye is starting to clear out nicely now. It is bombs away from here. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-03-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Eye is starting to clear out nicely now. It is bombs away from here. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-03-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Next up is the stadium effect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 We have stadium 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Amazing towers firing up on the north side of the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 WB 12Z EURO 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 19 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Hey--I said it in the other thread over in the tropical subforum but IMO I wouldn't take kids for a trip like this (and I wouldn't recommend you go), especially if it's essentially everyone's first hurricane chase. Majors are a whole different breed and this close to landfall (not sure when you'd be planning to go) it's going to be chaotic in the region. Depending on how close you are to the center and coast you may have to deal with water (most dangerous generally) as well as wind. All that said above, for me there are two things I'm looking for in a hotel: First, is it in a flood prone area. If it is, that can be problematic even if inland because a lot of rain could cause flooding that could 1) impact your car i.e. escape route and 2) cut off your escape route/exit after the storm. I picked the perfect location in Florence and even then the flooding forced me to stay in NC longer than anticipated. Had I not done my research I would have been fine personally but would have lost the car. Second, I try to look for newer places that are likely to be covered by newer building codes, and places like hotels that are going to have interior locations to shelter in place. Inns and motels are generally a no go for me because they don't really have that. I closely examine interior and exterior pictures, as well as the surrounding area. You will do what you do but I cannot emphasize enough how critically important it is to do your research. Chasing a hurricane is inherently dangerous, even away from the coast. I literally spend days tracking guidance, researching locations, escape routes, possible travel itineraries, and local conditions like evacuation chatter and contraflow plans. There's a lot that goes into it. Yeah I am gonna pass on the kids for this one. Seems like this is gonna be life threatening wind event and storm surge event. Nothing to mess around with. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 3 hours ago, H2O said: Its got a little dry air between that one outer band and core. Feeder bands from the south are strong. I hope CAT 3 is the max it gets and glad if its lower If there is no source of sheer or dry air to interfere.. I really don't think that there is much room to be any lower. 2 hours ago, MN Transplant said: There is a national refuge between Lafayette and Baton Rouge. If the right eyewall can thread that needle, it’ll really keep the damage down. As it strengthens the models might nudge the track slightly to the east of where it was yesterday. Looks really scary right TBH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Up to 100 mph and rapidly strengthening. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2021 Author Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO BIG rain signal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: BIG rain signal BRING IT 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: BRING IT DrOugHt bUSteR!!!1! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: As @Weather Will posted, there’s still a signal for a heavy rain event somewhere in the mid Atlantic or northeast. It looks like a robust low coming through. Still far out, but it could bring a rain and severe threat if it sets up right. Now THIS is what I'm looking for 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: BRING IT Yessssss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 25 minutes ago, mattie g said: DrOugHt bUSteR!!!1! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 27 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Now THIS is what I'm looking for For every inch of rain we get it’s one less this winter 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psurulz Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 My lawn definitely could use that drink of water! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 That said I think it’s time to bring back the mappy ark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Its a good start.... An expansive area of torrential tropical rains with embedded sever would be ideal. Lets move this a little south and see some oranges popping up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2021 Author Share Posted August 28, 2021 Unlike Henri, where the guidance really struggled at the beginning and end, it’s really interesting how lockstep the guidance has been from pre-genesis to post landfall. They’ve even shifted in lockstep. Maybe it’s because of how dominant the ridge plays in the steering pattern. Verbatim the GFS and now euro have a legit remnants event this week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Unlike Henri, where the guidance really struggled at the beginning and end, it’s really interesting how lockstep the guidance has been from pre-genesis to post landfall. They’ve even shifted in lockstep. Maybe it’s because of how dominant the ridge plays in the steering pattern. Verbatim the GFS and now euro have a legit remnants event this week. I’d watch to see which side of the track it does take. The more East it goes into the coast the better chances Randy gets his swimming down Wisconsin Ave wish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 18z 3k NAM takes Henri down to 885 prior to landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 minute ago, mattie g said: 18z 3k NAM takes Henri down to 885 prior to landfall. Don’t scare me like that. I thought I just woke up and went back in time. I think you meant Ida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: Don’t scare me like that. I thought I just woke up and went back in time. I think you meant Ida. Oh shite…lol. I have no idea what I’m talking about. And I won’t edit it because I need to accept my stupidity. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Note to self: Mattie G is better with swim meets than tropical storm names 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 13 minutes ago, mattie g said: Oh shite…lol. I have no idea what I’m talking about. And I won’t edit it because I need to accept my stupidity. The only thing I know is that I don’t know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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