WinterWxLuvr Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Anybody happen to read the forecast advisory? Yikes, cat 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2021 Author Share Posted August 27, 2021 51 minutes ago, blueberryfaygo said: Thinking about taking my kids down to see their first hurricane! We did the whole Irene thing at Ocean City.. but they were too young to remember.. so I figure this would be a fun trip. BTW She is coming in a littel east of the 12z guidance!! Wow!!! Hey--I said it in the other thread over in the tropical subforum but IMO I wouldn't take kids for a trip like this (and I wouldn't recommend you go), especially if it's essentially everyone's first hurricane chase. Majors are a whole different breed and this close to landfall (not sure when you'd be planning to go) it's going to be chaotic in the region. Depending on how close you are to the center and coast you may have to deal with water (most dangerous generally) as well as wind. 49 minutes ago, blueberryfaygo said: @WxWatcher007 what kinda hotel should I be looking at to stay out of harms way? Is there some "year built" or some construction type that I should be looking at? All that said above, for me there are two things I'm looking for in a hotel: First, is it in a flood prone area. If it is, that can be problematic even if inland because a lot of rain could cause flooding that could 1) impact your car i.e. escape route and 2) cut off your escape route/exit after the storm. I picked the perfect location in Florence and even then the flooding forced me to stay in NC longer than anticipated. Had I not done my research I would have been fine personally but would have lost the car. Second, I try to look for newer places that are likely to be covered by newer building codes, and places like hotels that are going to have interior locations to shelter in place. Inns and motels are generally a no go for me because they don't really have that. I closely examine interior and exterior pictures, as well as the surrounding area. You will do what you do but I cannot emphasize enough how critically important it is to do your research. Chasing a hurricane is inherently dangerous, even away from the coast. I literally spend days tracking guidance, researching locations, escape routes, possible travel itineraries, and local conditions like evacuation chatter and contraflow plans. There's a lot that goes into it. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 28 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Anybody happen to read the forecast advisory? Yikes, cat 4. I just want a deluge of more rain here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 24 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Hey--I said it in the other thread over in the tropical subforum but IMO I wouldn't take kids for a trip like this (and I wouldn't recommend you go), especially if it's essentially everyone's first hurricane chase. Majors are a whole different breed and this close to landfall (not sure when you'd be planning to go) it's going to be chaotic in the region. Depending on how close you are to the center and coast you may have to deal with water (most dangerous generally) as well as wind. All that said above, for me there are two things I'm looking for in a hotel: First, is it in a flood prone area. If it is, that can be problematic even if inland because a lot of rain could cause flooding that could 1) impact your car i.e. escape route and 2) cut off your escape route/exit after the storm. I picked the perfect location in Florence and even then the flooding forced me to stay in NC longer than anticipated. Had I not done my research I would have been fine personally but would have lost the car. Second, I try to look for newer places that are likely to be covered by newer building codes, and places like hotels that are going to have interior locations to shelter in place. Inns and motels are generally a no go for me because they don't really have that. I closely examine interior and exterior pictures, as well as the surrounding area. You will do what you do but I cannot emphasize enough how critically important it is to do your research. Chasing a hurricane is inherently dangerous, even away from the coast. I literally spend days tracking guidance, researching locations, escape routes, possible travel itineraries, and local conditions like evacuation chatter and contraflow plans. There's a lot that goes into it. Wait wait wait...somebody is seriously thinking about taking kids on a hurricane chase? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2021 Author Share Posted August 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Wait wait wait...somebody is seriously thinking about taking kids on a hurricane chase? Yes. There's no way I'd bring children to a hurricane chase but what do I know. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Wait wait wait...somebody is seriously thinking about taking kids on a hurricane chase? Yes..yes he is. Displaced reptiles is the first thing that came to mind. It goes downhill from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Yes. There's no way I'd bring children to a hurricane chase but what do I know. a lot 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 15 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I just want a deluge of more rain here. Why do you hate me and my basement? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Just now, H2O said: Why do you hate me and my basement? Well, you now have plenty of time on your hands to bail out the water when needed. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 22 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Wait wait wait...somebody is seriously thinking about taking kids on a hurricane chase? I think if his kids are older (14 and up maybe) and he was going into a cat 1 or less than that could be pretty fun for both him and the kids but a Cat 4... well I hope you have good insurance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, you now have plenty of time on your hands to bail out the water when needed. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 25 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Wait wait wait...somebody is seriously thinking about taking kids on a hurricane chase? No. Troll account. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2021 Author Share Posted August 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I think if his kids are older (14 and up maybe) and he was going into a cat 1 or less than that could be pretty fun for both him and the kids but a Cat 4... well I hope you have good insurance. So much can go wrong, all in a split second. It sounds counterintuitive since you're doing something most people find crazy lol, but in any chase and especially a high end chase you cannot bring someone that doesn't have good judgement and excellent risk assessment ability. Most people don't fit that bill let alone kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 23 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, you now have plenty of time on your hands to bail out the water when needed. Who do you think I am? Nuclear man? 13 minutes ago, mappy said: lol Hush you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 27 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: So much can go wrong, all in a split second. It sounds counterintuitive since you're doing something most people find crazy lol, but in any chase and especially a high end chase you cannot bring someone that doesn't have good judgement and excellent risk assessment ability. Most people don't fit that bill let alone kids. Yeah, that why I think that a low end cat 1 would be the highest I would be willing to say is an acceptable idea and if the kids are older. I myself am still in high school and would like to case storms but that wont happen until I can drive and even then I am going for cat 1s or below until I am older because anything higher is just a bad idea unless you really know what you are doing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2021 Author Share Posted August 28, 2021 11 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Yeah, that why I think that a low end cat 1 would be the highest I would be willing to say is an acceptable idea and if the kids are older. I myself am still in high school and would like to case storms but that wont happen until I can drive and even then I am going for cat 1s or below until I am older because anything higher is just a bad idea unless you really know what you are doing. I started out with a PTC, then went to a weak TS, strong TS, hurricanes and then the major last year. Starting with the weaker stuff allowed me to compare notes and learn from mistakes, which made my higher end chases safer and cheaper. I still will chase strong TSs like Isaias last year and Elsa/Henri this year if they are close and have a significant chance of being a hurricane at landfall (Elsa and Henri had hurricane warnings but fell short). Otherwise it is hurricane or no go at this point for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2021 Author Share Posted August 28, 2021 Spaghetti charts just because Increasing likelihood of a good rain event inland from this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 I’m betting this thing blows up overnight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Spaghetti charts just because Increasing likelihood of a good rain event inland from this. I know Everyone to the east has had plenty of rain. But we could really use it out here. Has been dry as a bone the past month. Every storm that pops up is east of Winchester it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 hour ago, H2O said: Who do you think I am? Nuclear man? You know, you're a real son of bitch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 25 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m betting this thing blows up overnight To quote a line from a famous space movie: I got a bad feeling about this. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Center of circulation is close to offshore again. She didnt really get beat up too badly by Cuba at all. Towers popping NE of the "eye" as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 WB 0Z ensembles total precipitation 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Latest satellite shows rapid intensification. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 I wonder if Robert Ricks still works for the NWS down there? He was the guy who wrote the legendarily ominous discussion before Katrina. https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2015/08/hurricane-katrina-weather-forecast-robert-ricks-urgent-warning-changed-the-way-forecasts-are-issued.html 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 hour ago, frd said: Latest satellite shows rapid intensification. I would have to agree with this. At this rate I would expect an open eye sooner than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2021 Author Share Posted August 28, 2021 As @Weather Will posted, there’s still a signal for a heavy rain event somewhere in the mid Atlantic or northeast. It looks like a robust low coming through. Still far out, but it could bring a rain and severe threat if it sets up right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Is this an eye trying to form? https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/meso_band.php?sat=G16&sat=G16&lat=25N&lon=86W&band=13&length=30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 I do think we are seeing the formation of the eye beginning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now