mappy Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I agree with this. Interaction with Cuba will be key but at this speed it’s only gonna be over land a couple of hours at max. I think it may explode once back over the gulf Seems to be how they go in recent years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 21 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Good - the last thing we need is more rain EJ want death and destruction. Nothing less will suffice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 That satellite pic is just amazing right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, mappy said: Seems to be how they go in recent years. AGW and summer make the gulf a hot tub. And its not just sea surface. Its warm down the column too so even upwelling fuels any storm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That satellite pic is just amazing right now Not a great link, but it looks like a beast already. Massive cloud shield currently, and incredible /SST energy source in its path. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=EXTENT&length=24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 For EJ, the ensemble guidance from last night has the GFS with weaker steering, keeping it away. CMC and Navy are more interesting. That said, we don’t usually do that well with a looping track like this from the gulf. For impacts here we generally want a FL panhandle hit (Ivan). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That satellite pic is just amazing right now you can see how well its venting at the top those last few images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: Just saw a tweet about a major outbreak of lightning (and positive strokes) near the center. Could be about to take off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 22 minutes ago, H2O said: you can see how well its venting at the top those last few images Yessir. We are gonna have a hurricane very soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 windy.com is a pretty good place to see the wind fields/sat too. and they have Euro/GFS/NAM model data so you can see where it goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 27 minutes ago, H2O said: you can see how well its venting at the top those last few images looks like two hot towers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, mappy said: looks like two hot towers dat bubbling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 It looks like it is gonna pass over that island just south of Cuba then Cuba itself. It seems to have taken a slight wobble to the west putting it more in line with that island. I don’t know the elevation of that island, but I suppose that could dampen Ida a bit, for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It looks like it is gonna pass over that island just south of Cuba then Cuba itself. It seems to have taken a slight wobble to the west putting it more in line with that island. I don’t know the elevation of that island, but I suppose that could dampen Ida a bit, for a while. about 100 amsl along the coast, up to near 1000 on the north side of it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 this loop is sick https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/meso_band.php?sat=G16&lat=20N&lon=82W&band=02&length=30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 1 minute ago, H2O said: this loop is sick https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/meso_band.php?sat=G16&lat=20N&lon=82W&band=02&length=30 ill wait until the eye clears out and we get some sweet stadium effect going on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 7 minutes ago, mappy said: about 100 amsl along the coast, up to near 1000 on the north side of it Well that seems like it could certainly at least slow what appears to be a rapidly deepening system. Of course it won’t be over land very long regardless of it’s path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 1 minute ago, mappy said: ill wait until the eye clears out and we get some sweet stadium effect going on 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, mappy said: ill wait until the eye clears out and we get some sweet stadium effect going on Don't you wish we could sit on the top most row of that just once and see all the way to the bottom? That is until we get sick from the spinning like the playground spinning wheel thingy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Well that seems like it could certainly at least slow what appears to be a rapidly deepening system. Of course it won’t be over land very long regardless of it’s path thats the elevation for that little island before the main one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, H2O said: Don't you wish we could sit on the top most row of that just once and see all the way to the bottom? That is until we get sick from the spinning like the playground spinning wheel thingy being on Miss Piggy during a recon flight would be great. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 1 minute ago, mappy said: being on Miss Piggy during a recon flight would be great. glass bottom airplane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, mappy said: thats the elevation for that little island before the main one. What type of elevation are we looking at on the western end of Cuba? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Next center fix from recon is going to be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Next center fix from recon is going to be interesting. Looks to have wobbled west to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What type of elevation are we looking at on the western end of Cuba? 600 up to 2000+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 7 minutes ago, mappy said: 600 up to 2000+ to that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 I'm honestly not sure it would make any appreciable difference in the strength at landfall on the Gulf Coast whether it got shredded or not because it would still explode once it got over the Gulf. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, H2O said: to that https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1431274726475841543?s=20 Western Cuba offers little resistance for most storms that have themselves together. It is so narrow and most storms (like Ida) move roughly perpendicular to the island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, mattie g said: I'm honestly not sure it would make any appreciable difference in the strength at landfall on the Gulf Coast whether it got shredded or not because it would still explode once it got over the Gulf. correct 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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