George BM Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 261445 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 79.2W ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 26, 2021 Author Share Posted August 26, 2021 47 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Part of the “I” thing might be the time that an “I” storm is likely to show up. If we looked at the dates of those storms are they generally appearing in and around the peak climo for Atlantic hurricanes? Absolutely. Squarely in the peak historically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 New Orleans area better hope this run doesn't hold: this is the 12Z GFS late afternoon on Sunday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 21 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m betting this is at least a depression before 48 hours. 15 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m changing that to 24 hours Sage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 26, 2021 Author Share Posted August 26, 2021 Dear Lord the GFS tees up another major just a few days later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Part of the “I” thing might be the time that an “I” storm is likely to show up. If we looked at the dates of those storms are they generally appearing in and around the peak climo for Atlantic hurricanes? Good point. So as I said, might as well retire it now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Dear Lord the GFS tees up another major just a few days later. You might as well plan on staying down along the gulf coast through the first half of September. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 26, 2021 Author Share Posted August 26, 2021 8 minutes ago, Chris78 said: You might as well plan on staying down along the gulf coast through the first half of September. I cleared the calendar and was looking at flights and hotels, but this one may be 12 hours too soon for me. I can’t get down there until Sunday evening at the earliest. Too late if some of the guidance is right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 33 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I cleared the calendar and was looking at flights and hotels, but this one may be 12 hours too soon for me. I can’t get down there until Sunday evening at the earliest. Too late if some of the guidance is right. You should meet up with Josh if you go down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 26, 2021 Author Share Posted August 26, 2021 6 minutes ago, mappy said: You should meet up with Josh if you go down there. Maybe one day we’ll end up at the same hotel I’m as locked in as you can get when I’m on the hunt. No time for social calls lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Maybe one day we’ll end up at the same hotel I’m as locked in as you can get when I’m on the hunt. No time for social calls lol. That's fair! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 LWX AFD from this afternoon already has a lot of talk about Ida The later half of the long term be heavy dependent on the interaction between a tropical system currently located over the western Caribbean and a cold front dropping through our region from the Northwest. A tropical depression over the western Caribbean is forecast to make landfall somewhere in central Gulf States as a Cat 1/2 Hurricane on Sunday. The main question for this system will be what direction it will take once it moves inland. A cold front is forecast to drop down through our region late Monday through Tuesday and progress southward on Tuesday driven by a high pressure to the north. The tropical system may interact with the frontal boundary to enhance rainfall. I feel the biggest concern may be over the southern states especially Tennessee which received a lot of rain recently. As the tropical system moves northeastward, the axis of heaviest rain will likely shift toward our region late Tuesday through Thursday period. Depending on the track the center of the low takes, there could be multiple threats for our region. Flooding could be a concern especially if the models trend eastward with the trop low and if we continue to receive convection over the next 4 to 5 days. If the low stays west of our region, the shear on the east side of the low could enhance the SVR and tor threat. There remains a lot of uncertainty in the long term as the tropical system remains disorganized and off-shore. The stretch of 90 degree weather may break on Tuesday as the front pushes through our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 26, 2021 Author Share Posted August 26, 2021 5 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Sage Good thing I got my forecast out last night Tropical Storm Ida Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 520 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 ...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS DEPRESSION A TROPICAL STORM... Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that the depression has strengthened to Tropical Storm Ida. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. SUMMARY OF 520 PM EDT...2120 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 79.8W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 55 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Good thing I got my forecast out last night Tropical Storm Ida Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 520 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 ...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS DEPRESSION A TROPICAL STORM... Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that the depression has strengthened to Tropical Storm Ida. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. SUMMARY OF 520 PM EDT...2120 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 79.8W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown I'm not liking the looks of this one for Louisiana. I'll be monitoring closely and praying for my friends at Slidell (WFO New Orleans). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 26, 2021 Author Share Posted August 26, 2021 48 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I'm not liking the looks of this one for Louisiana. I'll be monitoring closely and praying for my friends at Slidell (WFO New Orleans). Looks like it could be really bad there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 26, 2021 Author Share Posted August 26, 2021 Just look at this. Absolutely absurd. This is what I meant when I said TCHP can compensate for a lesser extent of warm SSTs in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Gotta wonder if any remnants for us could take an Ivan-esque approach to our region (not including the odd loop Ivan did back to the Gulf, of course). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 31 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Gotta wonder if any remnants for us could take an Ivan-esque approach to our region (not including the odd loop Ivan did back to the Gulf, of course). I hope not. That cleanup was a mess! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 WB 6Z GFS big rain event shaping up LA and North and eastward starting Sunday… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Ida looks pretty healthy right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Ida looks pretty healthy right now Ida's probably gonna make a run at being a mid to high end major before landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 GFS dives Ida' remnants well south of us, which is on par with climo. We lose again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Just saw a tweet about a major outbreak of lightning (and positive strokes) near the center. Could be about to take off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Just saw a tweet about a major outbreak of lightning (and positive strokes) near the center. Could be about to take off. Its going to go over nuclear water the next 36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: GFS dives Ida' remnants well south of us, which is on par with climo. We lose again. It does? Edit: I guess you're referring to the warm sector, in which I suppose I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 I'm so out of practice--what's the best satellite imagery to be looking at these days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 19 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: GFS dives Ida' remnants well south of us, which is on par with climo. We lose again. Good - the last thing we need is more rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 27 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: GFS dives Ida' remnants well south of us, which is on par with climo. We lose again. lol I love you, but it hasn't even made landfall yet. lets count our losses after it happens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, jacindc said: I'm so out of practice--what's the best satellite imagery to be looking at these days? https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 42 minutes ago, mappy said: Ida's probably gonna make a run at being a mid to high end major before landfall I agree with this. Interaction with Cuba will be key but at this speed it’s only gonna be over land a couple of hours at max. I think it may explode once back over the gulf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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