Kmlwx Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 A little further east could bode well for impacts up here I'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 16, 2021 Author Share Posted August 16, 2021 06z Euro brings a fair amount of rain, especially for the western part of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 Looks like 12z Euro brings the 850 low with Fred through HGR. Would be a Wednesday afternoon to evening issue, actually looks like the brunt of the remnants come through during prime heating. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 18z NAM takes the center of the remnants on a pretty different track compared to the 18z NAM nest. NAM nest is pretty far north and west with the center around our region...12km NAM would seemingly be better for a closer in pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 For the GEFS versus the GEPS - the GEPS would be much more likely to bring us impacts locally (available on TropicalTidbits). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 Fred is having a big blowup of convection right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 17, 2021 Author Share Posted August 17, 2021 Guidance got to it eventually but yeah, this is nuts. There have been a lot of forecasting challenges this season. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 There is something inherently wrong with the ocean-atmospheric coupling on the GFS and many other models. They are not factoring in something either the cold stratosphere and/or warming ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 6z GFS has Henri making landfall basically over Block Island in the 970s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 I love it when a TC makes my forecast look good. That Monday post looks pretty good right now for Henri lol. Still a long way to go, but that 500mb look is how we get our tropical up here. Last 8 GEFS runs Euro operational trend at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 One 6z EPS member takes Henri up the Bay. #itshappening 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: One 6z EPS member takes Henri up the Bay. #itshappening 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: One 6z EPS member takes Henri up the Bay. #itshappening What's its pressure less than 970 or bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 That member is even just a hair west of the Bay. Imagine that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 That member must see the well known Nova Scotia Bermuda ridge to shove Henri that far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 minute ago, H2O said: That member must see the well known Nova Scotia Bermuda ridge to shove Henri that far west The trend is our friend. In all honesty - that member is pretty strong even once it gets into the metro area. It brings the center almost over MBY. Would be an ugly setup for the western side of the bay. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 NOAA Gulfstream IV missions and special weather balloon soundings have been scheduled, and it is hoped that this additional data will help the models handle the evolving steering pattern. Given the uncertainty in the longer range track forecasts, users should be prepared for additional adjustments to the NHC track forecast in future forecast cycles. Does someone know what model cycle will have the new data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 16 minutes ago, Weather Will said: NOAA Gulfstream IV missions and special weather balloon soundings have been scheduled, and it is hoped that this additional data will help the models handle the evolving steering pattern. Given the uncertainty in the longer range track forecasts, users should be prepared for additional adjustments to the NHC track forecast in future forecast cycles. Does someone know what model cycle will have the new data? It would be a cycle or two after the mission is completed. I believe special soundings can be incorporated immediately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Some of the 12z GEFS members pull Henri into Cape May/Atlantic City. OP GFS is loltastic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Some of the 12z GEFS members pull Henri into Cape May/Atlantic City. OP GFS is loltastic. Three runs in a row that it wants to decimate Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Official NHC track has it making landfall on the Cape but the cone goes all the way west of NYC. Lots of uncertainty. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 @WxWatcher007 what in the almighty weirdness of total nonsense was this nonsense in the tropical thread... Quote This is MDL - Main Development Low ::: Mason Dixon Line is similar but call it this way - no problemo... It is a line that tells how far a TC needs to go to potentially affect Central NJ works for Nor'Easters as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2021 Author Share Posted August 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: @WxWatcher007 what in the almighty weirdness of total nonsense was this nonsense in the tropical thread... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 It came with a helpful map!* *(the map was NOT helpful) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 Probably doesn’t need to be said, but a tropical system that stays strong until New England has to be booking it (1938) or strongly interact with a trough (Sandy). Both the Euro and GFS slow the system upon approach. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 1 hour ago, MN Transplant said: Probably doesn’t need to be said, but a tropical system that stays strong until New England has to be booking it (1938) or strongly interact with a trough (Sandy). Both the Euro and GFS slow the system upon approach. The famous and destrcutive Hurricane of 1938 was moving at an incredible 47 mph. Wow ! On September 21, 1938, one of the most destructive and powerful hurricanes in recorded history struck Long Island and Southern New England. The storm developed near the Cape Verde Islands on September 9, tracking across the Atlantic and up the Eastern Seaboard. The storm hit Long Island and Southern Connecticut on September 21, moving at a forward speed of 47 mph! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 19, 2021 Author Share Posted August 19, 2021 4 hours ago, MN Transplant said: Probably doesn’t need to be said, but a tropical system that stays strong until New England has to be booking it (1938) or strongly interact with a trough (Sandy). Both the Euro and GFS slow the system upon approach. Yeah, there's a tradeoff. Wind for rain and coastal flooding depending on the heading. We actually had a significant flash flood event this morning here due to Fred. Shades of 1955. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 I love the NAM with tropical systems. Has it approaching NE at 922 mb! Always fun to look at for giggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 3 hours ago, frd said: The famous and destrcutive Hurricane of 1938 was moving at an incredible 47 mph. Wow ! ... moving at a forward speed of 47 mph! How was the speed determined before the satellite era? I figure it was by charting observations days or weeks after the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 45 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said: How was the speed determined before the satellite era? I figure it was by charting observations days or weeks after the storm. Without researching it in depth I would think that ship reports came into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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