MN Transplant Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 On 8/28/2021 at 9:07 PM, mattie g said: 18z 3k NAM takes Henri down to 885 prior to landfall. Expand I know that we all know not to use the 3km NAM for tropical, but here’s why 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 On 8/28/2021 at 9:28 PM, psuhoffman said: The only thing I know is that I don’t know. Expand Oh shit. PSU is here. Let me bow while he takes a look at the long range Winter thread. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 18Z WB GEFS (south of deterministic model) with heavier rain 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 On 8/28/2021 at 11:37 PM, Weather Will said: 18Z WB GEFS (south of deterministic model) with heavier rain Expand How do our 3" probabilities look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 On 8/28/2021 at 11:43 PM, George BM said: How do our 3" probabilities look? Expand WB 18Z GEFS 2 and 4 inch Probs through this upcoming week 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 On 8/28/2021 at 11:58 PM, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS 2 and 4 inch Probs through this upcoming week Expand I'd have been happy to see snow probs like that last winter ... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Seems Ida has kicked most of the dry air out of her core. She is about to go Boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 On 8/28/2021 at 9:27 PM, H2O said: Note to self: Mattie G is better with swim meets than tropical storm names Expand Very true. Swim meets affect me. Tropical doesn’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 WB 0Z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 5am NHC track has Ida near MRB area at 1am THU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 On 8/29/2021 at 6:30 AM, Weather Will said: WB 0Z Euro Expand Now it's starting to get a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 @wdrag mentioned it in the NYC forum... but it does look like some of the models are showing a PRE... whether that affects our region or just north is still up in the air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 150 mph and 935 mb. Ida could reach Cat 5. Not that it will make any real difference. This is not good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 On 8/29/2021 at 11:38 AM, CAPE said: 150 mph and 935 mb. Ida could reach Cat 5. Not that it will make any real difference. This is not good. Expand Latest 932 160mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 On 8/29/2021 at 11:38 AM, CAPE said: 150 mph and 935 mb. Ida could reach Cat 5. Not that it will make any real difference. This is not good. Expand Yeah. The gulf is just so much fuel for these canes now. They just explode in strength every time. And keep hitting the same areas all too often 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 So 3k NAM was the Man after All!! Wasn’t it forecasting the lowest pressure that everyone dismissed yesterday? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Dramatic and impressive on the visible. And scary. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 On 8/29/2021 at 10:13 AM, yoda said: @wdrag mentioned it in the NYC forum... but it does look like some of the models are showing a PRE... whether that affects our region or just north is still up in the air Expand You know it'll hit anywhere but here. Probably will occur in the elevated terrain in the Laurel Highlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 On 8/29/2021 at 11:47 AM, CAPE said: Dramatic and impressive on the visible. And scary. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Expand Some of the color ones now showing grey and white cloud tops. Those are the coldest colors. This beast is trying for 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Anybody have a link to one of those satellite loops where the storm remains centered and it looks like the land is moving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 WB 6z Euro 5 am Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2021 Author Share Posted August 29, 2021 So many people whined yesterday when they only saw a 2mb an hour drop…the gradual organization was just setting the stage for overnight. Intensification is a process, and this is about as impressive a period of RI as you’ll ever see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 WB 6z Euro out to 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 928mb/ 27.40 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 On 8/29/2021 at 12:10 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Anybody have a link to one of those satellite loops where the storm remains centered and it looks like the land is moving? Expand Like this? https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL092021#tabInner1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 On 8/29/2021 at 12:27 PM, CAPE said: Like this? https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL092021#tabInner1 Expand You’re the man. Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 On 8/29/2021 at 12:17 PM, WxWatcher007 said: So many people whined yesterday when they only saw a 2mb an hour drop…the gradual organization was just setting the stage for overnight. Intensification is a process, and this is about as impressive a period of RI as you’ll ever see. Expand Sam Lillo on Twitter commented on how Ida is now top 10 as far as RI in 24 hr period. It is likely that this will hit Cat 5 just before landfall given how close data is already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 On 8/29/2021 at 11:38 AM, CAPE said: 150 mph and 935 mb. Ida could reach Cat 5. Not that it will make any real difference. This is not good. Expand Just woke up and wow. Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 06z GFS takes Ida north into PA. Shunts the heavy rain up there. NPZ weeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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