2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

[The Dude]

2 hours ago, nj2va said:

OMG, no thank you.  We're in OBX that week and would prefer no evacuation. 

Amen.  We'll be further south near Wilmington.  No thanks on a Cat 3 landfall!

[WxWatcher007]

Toss the op guidance 

[nj2va]

59 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Toss the op guidance 

I figured you can trust an OP at 280 hours out just like in winter.  

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

I figured you can trust an OP at 280 hours out just like in winter.  

I remember. I chiseled a lot of tombstones in my day.  

[Eskimo Joe]

Maybe this will be our year

 

[Kmlwx]

15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Maybe this will be our year

 

At the very least we should cash in on remnants. Getting something beefy to our area is always a long long long shot.

[WxWatcher007]

I can’t see the tweet, but I saw today that this is about as strong a long range signal for US threats as I’ve ever seen for the peak of a hurricane season.

[WxWatcher007]

This is a very good presentation of TD 7 going into sunset. If it can keep that convection going near the center it’ll be a TS in short order.

[yoda]

Question is, as was stated in the 5pm disco, is track.  Path for now is same that Fred took, which may cause TD 7 to not intensify as much

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Question is, as was stated in the 5pm disco, is track.  Path for now is same that Fred took, which may cause TD 7 to not intensify as much

If it can get going quicker than forecast - it will probably go a little more poleward versus the current cone. 

[WxWatcher007]

23 minutes ago, yoda said:

Question is, as was stated in the 5pm disco, is track.  Path for now is same that Fred took, which may cause TD 7 to not intensify as much

 

21 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

If it can get going quicker than forecast - it will probably go a little more poleward versus the current cone. 

This. A stronger system with better outflow should also be able to push back against the PV streamer that would otherwise shear the heck out of it. That’s why these trends in the next 1-2 days are so important. 

[H2O]

Fred def taking that more W course into the gulf that was a possibility a number of days ago. 

[Stormfly]

20 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I remember. I chiseled a lot of tombstones in my day.  

You could use a good router with diamond bit!

[WxWatcher007]

Let's talk about the latest named storm in what has been a very active season so far, Grace. 

After struggling through the day, last night the system started producing more vigorous convection, although it wasn't necessarily reflective of organization. This (early) morning's microwave imagery revealed a little more organization, but nothing particularly impressive. I believe this is because although Grace has been in a warm SST environment a combination of fast forward motion, shear, and dry air was inhibiting the kind of robust and consistent convection to allow for faster organization. 

This morning has looked a little different, though. 

Although there is some shear still present, the overall presentation of Grace has improved markedly, with deep and persistent convection near the center and improved outflow (which may be important later in the forecast period). This image shows me that favorable conditions are likely until it reaches the Greater Antilles. 

SSTs/TCHP certainly aren't an issue at this time. 

 

That said, although it looks good on satellite, we need to see what the structure inside is. Sometimes you see these satellite improvements but the internal improvements, which are what matter the most, are lagging. Recon should be investigating later, and that will be critical to understanding what happens next. 

For now though, we have a tropical storm that at least from afar is trying to organize in a favorable environment. Let's talk about the guidance. 

First, I think it should be noted that the guidance has struggled to initialize Grace well. As you can see here, the Euro doesn't have grace looking as robust as it currently looks in reality. That can have downstream impacts as specific track matters a lot here. But, for the purposes of illustrating the possibilities let's look at it.

The Euro has Grace developing on approach to PR, and then has it skirt the northern coast of DR/Haiti as it rounds a strong ridge which has been the dominant feature of the summer in the Atlantic. What you don't necessarily see is there's likely to be an increase of shear as a TUTT/PV streamer sits over the southwest Atlantic. You can already see the shear in the image below. Grace should avoid the worst of it, but it doesn't take much to be very disruptive. 

These can be very difficult to forecast, especially if a system is stronger than anticipated when reaching it. 

Eventually though, on this run the combination of shear and land interaction is too much, and Grace fades into the sunset after reaching Florida. 

Now here's the GFS, which has bounced around between nothing and something more significant. 

Here, the GFS is more or less on top of the trend toward something stronger at the start, and note the organization that happens right before PR. That's definitely something to watch for folks down there, as it signals that a favorable environment is likely. 

The GFS threads the needle here, with Grace staying just south of PR, and then heading through the Mona Pass and safely avoiding DR/Haiti. While shear is still present (and watch that little subtropical critter near Bermuda) Grace never gets truly disrupted, and is able to handle whatever shear there is as it gets toward even warmer waters. That Sets the stage for something more robust for Florida and potentially the East Coast. 

There's a lot to sort out, but my opinion remains the same--Grace looks like a threat to the US, and has a high ceiling, if it can avoid taking a Fred like track. 

We need to watch for two things, I believe, in the next 24-48 hours. 

1) Does the ridge over the SW Atlantic allow for a further south/westward track over the Greater Antilles, or will the current organization of Grace allow for enough of a poleward push to avoid the islands?

2) Does Grace take advantage of the most favorable environment for a TC so far this season to outperform expectations in the short term?

The current IR images are compelling, and I am inclined to say that Grace is organizing underneath the convection, but we need to wait on recon to examine the organization that may or may not be taking place. With a small storm like Grace, things can ramp up quickly, so if there is an inner core developing, rapid intensification odds increase significantly in this environment.  

 

[WxWatcher007]

No surprise the guidance is picking up on higher end solutions for Grace now that they’re initializing stronger, but good God at the strength of that ridge. That’s a legit Miami and Gulf threat. 

[Vice-Regent]

Push the system long and hard enough and you end up in a situation where literally every Atlantic TC makes landfall in the CONUS. We are finally at that point.

[WxWatcher007]

Weird recon flight. 

[Jebman]

4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

No surprise the guidance is picking up on higher end solutions for Grace now that they’re initializing stronger, but good God at the strength of that ridge. That’s a legit Miami and Gulf threat. 

Could be active in the Gulf this season. Lets just hope they all hit the E GOM. Central TX is already pushing 40 inches on the year. We really dont need another Allison lol. Or Harvey. Especially over Austin.

[WxWatcher007]

What an incredibly sensitive forecast. Recon finds a mess of a system, and subsequently the guidance shifts south and effectively shreds Grace over the Greater Antilles. A lot to sort out because small changes will have big downstream impacts.

[H2O]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What an incredibly sensitive forecast. Recon finds a mess of a system, and subsequently the guidance shifts south and effectively shreds Grace over the Greater Antilles. A lot to sort out because small changes will have big downstream impacts.

You see that tweet fromEric Webb?  Went along your thoughts about the PV streamer affecting Grace. 
 

And Brad Panovich mentioned the SW ATL ridge shutting down coastal threats. Gonna shove these into the gulf

[WxWatcher007]

9 minutes ago, H2O said:

You see that tweet fromEric Webb?  Went along your thoughts about the PV streamer affecting Grace. 
 

And Brad Panovich mentioned the SW ATL ridge shutting down coastal threats. Gonna shove these into the gulf

Yeah—I wonder how, if at all, PV shear impacts Grace if it’s further south. 

Agree on the ridge in August given how big time it is but once we get to September and October that ridge probably opens the door to East Coast threats as troughs become more likely. 

I can see a situation where you get big ridge trapping waves and steering them west—>front comes east to weaken ridge and tugs TC northward toward east coast—>ridge rebuilds

Another thing to watch is whether we really see ridging in maritime Canada in September. If we do, as the guidance seems to suggest, watch out. 

Not saying every system will be an EC threat, but this is a very strong signal for multiple threats should the steering pattern materialize during the peak. 

[WxWatcher007]

No need for a long post today

Grace, having seen how well running into the buzzsaw of the Greater Antilles worked out for Elsa and Fred, seems to have every intention of trying it too. lol 

 

[Weather Will]

Guess we should watch that little blob near Bermuda…

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Guess we should watch that little blob near Bermuda…

Advisories on that likely tonight at 11. That’s basically a TD on satellite.

[WxWatcher007]

Stand by for a long tropical post  

[H2O]

It seems the Fred was able to get hepped up on goofballs overnight. 

[WxWatcher007]

Wow.

This weekend might have been one of the most fascinating tracking periods I've seen in years. Today looks nothing like we thought it would just 48 hours ago. 

Above, you will see all three systems we're watching. Tropical Storm Fred near Florida, Tropical Depression Grace just south of DR/Haiti, and Tropical Depression Eight in the central Atlantic. Let's start with a look at the basin. 

For now, all three are situated in areas of light to moderate shear. That has allowed each to develop, though each have handled shear differently. Fred is likely organizing or intensifying on final approach, while Grace has failed to take advantage of a low shear environment to do the same. TD Eight has been steady state since developing quickly yesterday, but has managed to continue firing convection and morning visible shows the center trying to relocate under the convection. 

For each, SSTs and TCHP have not been an issue.

 

Let's start with Fred, the most imminent threat to the US. 

Tropical Storm Fred

After a near fatal encounter with DR/Haiti and Cuba, Fred is back from the dead and is continuing a theme that we saw last season: organizing/intensifying near the coast. While some reorganization was expected, the overall appearance we see this morning wasn't really thought to be a possibility until about 24 hours ago. In addition, this weekend we saw substantial track changes, with center reformations and stationary movements forcing track shifts from the west coast of Florida to the Florida state line, and back toward the Panhandle. These shifts are highly unusual IMO, especially within 24-48 hours. 

Although Fred is expected to weaken quickly after landfall later on Monday, the uptick in organization, and eastward shift, has potential implications downstream. As it gets absorbed by a trough, that will bring flooding rains to the SE and potentially heavy rains further north. 

I'm not entirely sure the rainfall distribution will carry that deep inland, but it is certainly something to watch given the recent flash flooding in this region. 

In the end, Fred has become a respectable tropical cyclone. 

 

The same is looking increasingly possible for Grace, which to date has been the "dud" of the season. 

Tropical Depression Grace

Grace has failed to meet virtually all expectations so far, and it is easy to see why, at least with regard to intensity. The early morning IR once again finds Grace to be disorganized, even in the face of relatively light shear. What could have been an intensifying system heading into DR/Haiti is a mess, with an elongated LLC that took days to develop, disorganized convection, and little indication that anything is changing. 

This, however, has caused truly massive changes in the track forecast and makes both intensity and track forecasts moving forward low confidence. This was the track for Grace at 5am on Saturday. 

...and here it is this morning...with additional changes likely...

Between Grace being far weaker than anticipated and the massive Atlantic ridge not providing the weakness (thus far) to turn Grace on a more WNW heading, Grace is increasingly likely to miss the Greater Antilles altogether. What that could mean is a more favorable environment for organization, but the presence of shear is possible as well. 

This leads to the final area of interest: Tropical Depression Eight. 

Tropical Depression Eight

TD 8 burst onto the scene as an area with 20% odds to develop into a tropical cyclone at 8pm on Saturday. By 11pm on Sunday it was our 8th tropical cyclone of the season.

This one has been a bit of a surprise, though it should be noted the guidance did have a signal for something to develop. 

Normally, this wouldn't be anything for the US to even give a second thought, but let's recall the theme of the season so far: anomalously strong ridging. TD 8, although far off the US coast, is in a warm SST and relatively low shear environment (though you can clearly see the impact of shear here) and it has the influence of a strong ridge nearby. 

The result? A little more uncertainty than we'd normally see. Some of the guidance, led by the Euro/EPS, wants to show a closer approach by what should become Tropical Storm Henri. Now, that's an outlier at the moment IMO, as the general ideal would be that TD 8 makes a complete clockwise turn around the ridge and heads harmlessly out to sea. However, if the ridge is stronger than anticipated and/or TD 8 becomes a deeper system and more able to be steered by the strong westward flow that in part is keeping Grace on this unexpected westward heading, it could be come an East Coast threat. 

You see this on a few of the EPS ensemble members. Emphasis on few. 

I think the smart money is on TD 8 never getting particularly close to the US, but given the anomalous ridging, and favorable environment for at least the next 24 hours to intensify, this might be something to watch if it becomes stronger than anticipated. 

We haven't reached August 20 yet, and the basin is about as hot as it can get. Indications are that the favorable window will remain open for the foreseeable future, further enhanced by the climatological peak of the season. 

Buckle up, folks. We're just getting started. 

[George BM]

 

21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Wow.

This weekend might have been one of the most fascinating tracking periods I've seen in years. Today looks nothing like we thought it would just 48 hours ago. 

Above, you will see all three systems we're watching. Tropical Storm Fred near Florida, Tropical Depression Grace just south of DR/Haiti, and Tropical Depression Eight in the central Atlantic. Let's start with a look at the basin. 

For now, all three are situated in areas of light to moderate shear. That has allowed each to develop, though each have handled shear differently. Fred is likely organizing or intensifying on final approach, while Grace has failed to take advantage of a low shear environment to do the same. TD Eight has been steady state since developing quickly yesterday, but has managed to continue firing convection and morning visible shows the center trying to relocate under the convection. 

For each, SSTs and TCHP have not been an issue.

 

Let's start with Fred, the most imminent threat to the US. 

Tropical Storm Fred

After a near fatal encounter with DR/Haiti and Cuba, Fred is back from the dead and is continuing a theme that we saw last season: organizing/intensifying near the coast. While some reorganization was expected, the overall appearance we see this morning wasn't really thought to be a possibility until about 24 hours ago. In addition, this weekend we saw substantial track changes, with center reformations and stationary movements forcing track shifts from the west coast of Florida to the Florida state line, and back toward the Panhandle. These shifts are highly unusual IMO, especially within 24-48 hours. 

Although Fred is expected to weaken quickly after landfall later on Monday, the uptick in organization, and eastward shift, has potential implications downstream. As it gets absorbed by a trough, that will bring flooding rains to the SE and potentially heavy rains further north. 

I'm not entirely sure the rainfall distribution will carry that deep inland, but it is certainly something to watch given the recent flash flooding in this region. 

In the end, Fred has become a respectable tropical cyclone. 

 

The same is looking increasingly possible for Grace, which to date has been the "dud" of the season. 

Tropical Depression Grace

Grace has failed to meet virtually all expectations so far, and it is easy to see why, at least with regard to intensity. The early morning IR once again finds Grace to be disorganized, even in the face of relatively light shear. What could have been an intensifying system heading into DR/Haiti is a mess, with an elongated LLC that took days to develop, disorganized convection, and little indication that anything is changing. 

This, however, has caused truly massive changes in the track forecast and makes both intensity and track forecasts moving forward low confidence. This was the track for Grace at 5am on Saturday. 

...and here it is this morning...with additional changes likely...

Between Grace being far weaker than anticipated and the massive Atlantic ridge not providing the weakness (thus far) to turn Grace on a more WNW heading, Grace is increasingly likely to miss the Greater Antilles altogether. What that could mean is a more favorable environment for organization, but the presence of shear is possible as well. 

This leads to the final area of interest: Tropical Depression Eight. 

Tropical Depression Eight

TD 8 burst onto the scene as an area with 20% odds to develop into a tropical cyclone at 8pm on Saturday. By 11pm on Sunday it was our 8th tropical cyclone of the season.

This one has been a bit of a surprise, though it should be noted the guidance did have a signal for something to develop. 

Normally, this wouldn't be anything for the US to even give a second thought, but let's recall the theme of the season so far: anomalously strong ridging. TD 8, although far off the US coast, is in a warm SST and relatively low shear environment (though you can clearly see the impact of shear here) and it has the influence of a strong ridge nearby. 

The result? A little more uncertainty than we'd normally see. Some of the guidance, led by the Euro/EPS, wants to show a closer approach by what should become Tropical Storm Henri. Now, that's an outlier at the moment IMO, as the general ideal would be that TD 8 makes a complete clockwise turn around the ridge and heads harmlessly out to sea. However, if the ridge is stronger than anticipated and/or TD 8 becomes a deeper system and more able to be steered by the strong westward flow that in part is keeping Grace on this unexpected westward heading, it could be come an East Coast threat. 

You see this on a few of the EPS ensemble members. Emphasis on few. 

I think the smart money is on TD 8 never getting particularly close to the US, but given the anomalous ridging, and favorable environment for at least the next 24 hours to intensify, this might be something to watch if it becomes stronger than anticipated. 

We haven't reached August 20 yet, and the basin is about as hot as it can get. Indications are that the favorable window will remain open for the foreseeable future, further enhanced by the climatological peak of the season. 

Buckle up, folks. We're just getting started. 

Thank you Showmethetropical! 

[wxdude64]

58 minutes ago, H2O said:

It seems the Fred was able to get hepped up on goofballs overnight. 

Hey, Hey!! Easy.

[WxWatcher007]

Fred is making a run at hurricane intensity

Tropical Storm Fred Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
730 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND FRED INTENSIFYING AND LOCATED A 
LITTLE FARTHER EAST...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that Fred is intensifying this morning, and now has maximum 
sustained winds near 60 mph (95 km/h), with an estimated minimum 
central pressure of 993 mb (29.32 inches).  

Data from the aircraft and National Weather Service Doppler radar 
indicate that Fred is now moving toward the north at 10 mph (17 
km/h). 


SUMMARY OF 730 AM CDT...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 85.6W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Pasch