2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

[WxWatcher007]

Much respect to the Euro, as it caught onto the idea of a robust inland system while the other guidance played catch up, or in the case of the GFS, went to the sideline and threw up on itself  

What you’ll see the next few days is Claudette look better over land than it ever did in the Gulf as it organizes from a jet injection, before possible redevelopment into a tropical cyclone over the western Atlantic. Fascinating evolution, sucks it’s happening too far south for anything interesting here. Oh well.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

I still can’t believe they didn’t retire Isaias- that’s almost as bad as Gordon 1994. Yet they retired a turd like Joaquin. I bet they were out of “I” names.

[WxWatcher007]

38 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I still can’t believe they didn’t retire Isaias- that’s almost as bad as Gordon 1994. Yet they retired a turd like Joaquin. I bet they were out of “I” names.

Yeah—that one really surprised me when I saw the retired list. That had a wide ranging impact. 

[Rhino16]

Don’t look at hour 288 on 12z GFS... fantasyland... probably.

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, Rhino16 said:

Don’t look at hour 288 on 12z GFS... fantasyland... probably.

There’s a little signal for some early July activity, so maybe we keep the active start going. 

[Lowershoresadness]

will there be a hurricane panic room for peak climo?

[WxWatcher007]

On 6/20/2021 at 6:27 PM, Lowershoresadness said:

will there be a hurricane panic room for peak climo?

Unlike snow, tropical is serious bidness. No time for other projects.

[WxWatcher007]

It looks like the tropics will continue to have somewhat favorable conditions into early July, with another CCKW possibility traversing the Atlantic.

There’s a weak signal on ensemble guidance for activity in the southern Gulf, and a possible CV wave developing.

The signal is a little more robust with the CV wave, but the problem is while climo starts to open up for those waves to develop in July, the MDR is still historically hostile then. Something to casually watch.

[frd]

14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The signal is a little more robust with the CV wave,

A bit dated but still interesting 

 

[Vice-Regent]

[WxWatcher007]

CV wave getting a lemon now from the NHC. Some pretty robust waves so far this season.

[WxWatcher007]

Orange

2. A strong tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa 
later today.  Although ocean temperatures are still relatively cool 
over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and are only marginally conducive 
for development, a small tropical depression could form by early 
next week while moving westward to west-northwestward at about 15 
mph across the tropical eastern and central Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[WxWatcher007]

Now designated as 95L. Something that may be worth watching long term depending on where the center develops.

[TSG]

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[George BM]

Probably nothing happens but the area of thunderstorms SE of Bermuda with a weak surface trough and a bit of an ULL shows that SSTs are slowly heating up for the season. 

[WxWatcher007]

On 6/25/2021 at 8:50 AM, George BM said:

Probably nothing happens but the area of thunderstorms SE of Bermuda with a weak surface trough and a bit of an ULL shows that SSTs are slowly heating up for the season. 

Probably not a lot of time to pop, but homebrew has been hot the last two years 

 

[WxWatcher007]

Just designated as 96L. 

Homebrew 

[WxWatcher007]

So let's talk 96L

It's the latest in a line of homebrew region (in this case western Atlantic/off SE Coast) disturbances that is attempting to develop. It didn't come out of nowhere. 

As I usually say, if you are only following surface depictions on the models for TC genesis, you are missing a lot. There were signals that we'd see a robust disturbance (but short of an actual TC) for days. The trend has been stronger in the most recent runs. I like looking at 850mb vorticity. As you'll see below, the last 8 runs have been more robust with the disturbance's vorticity, which is key to TC genesis. 

 

But of course, there's more to it than that (though having some spin is essential). Let's take a look at SSTs. As @George BM noted, they've been warming quite nicely, even as temps near the coastline are a bit below normal currently.

 

Having a sufficiently warm SST profile, a pocket of lower wind shear, and marginal moisture aloft has allowed for some gradual organization of 96L. In fact, it actually looks pretty good at the moment, with a low level circulation developing and convection firing near it. Consistent convection near the center would substantially raise the odds of some weak development, and that looks like a decent bet as the system passes near the Gulf Stream tonight/tomorrow.  

 

That said, there are some key environmental factors that strike against too much development. First is the dry air that is near the coast. While adequate, a more moist environment would be good for convection to fire. 

The other thing is shear. This disturbance is impacted by a nearby upper level low, and while it's in a pocket of lower shear now, there could be increasing shear near the coast. That's something to watch. 

The other thing is time. While there are conditions close to the coast that make TC genesis generally more favorable, the flip side is that anything that develops has a small window to intensify. That's good for the people of the coast of course. 

Overall, the signals, while weak, were there with this one. I think given what we're seeing on satellite right now, we have a fragile invest that is attempting tropical cyclone genesis. 

 

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite imagery and nearby buoy and ship observations indicate 
that a small low pressure system has formed about 500 miles 
east-southeast of the Georgia-South Carolina border. Surface 
pressures have begun to fall across the area, and showers and 
thunderstorms have recently become better organized. Some additional 
development of this system will be possible later today, and 
especially on Monday when the system will move across the warmer 
waters of the Gulf Stream, and a tropical depression could form 
before the system makes landfall along the southern U.S. coast. The 
low is expected to move westward today, and then west-northwestward 
at about 15 mph on Monday, reaching the coast of the southeastern 
United States by late Monday.  An Air Force Reserve Unit 
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system 
Monday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[frd]

47 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

But of course, there's more to it than that (though having some spin is essential). Let's take a look at SSTs. As @George BM noted, they've been warming quite nicely, even as temps near the coastline are a bit below normal currently.

Nice update,  and only matter oif time before those  SSTs off the DE. and NJ coast really spike upwards. Western Gulf is crazy warm .
! 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

Nice update,  and only matter oif time before those  SSTs off the DE. and NJ coast really spike upwards. Western Gulf is crazy warm .
! 

Thanks. Even as ENSO is looking more neutral, we're seeing a pretty active season so far with some signals that suggest the peak of the season is active. 

[frd]

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite imagery and nearby buoy and ship observations indicate 
that a small low pressure system has formed about 500 miles 
east-southeast of the Georgia-South Carolina border. Surface 
pressures have begun to fall across the area, and showers and 
thunderstorms have recently become better organized. Some additional 
development of this system will be possible later today, and 
especially on Monday when the system will move across the warmer 
waters of the Gulf Stream, and a tropical depression could form 
before the system makes landfall along the southern U.S. coast. The 
low is expected to move westward today, and then west-northwestward 
at about 15 mph on Monday, reaching the coast of the southeastern 
United States by late Monday.  An Air Force Reserve Unit 
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system 
Monday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

 

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[H2O]

10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

its so naked it needs a censor bar

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042021
1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021

The area of disturbed weather and associated low pressure system 
that the NHC has been tracking the past couple of days has developed 
into a tropical depression off the coast of South Carolina this 
morning. The inner-core cloud structure noted in high-resolution 
visible satellite imagery has continued to tighten up and deep 
convection with cloud top temperatures of -60 deg C have persisted 
northwest through southwest of the center, yielding a Dvorak shear 
pattern intensity estimate of 30 kt. This intensity estimate is 
consistent with overnight scatterometer surface wind data of 31-32 
kt just north of the well-defined center.

The initial motion estimate is 300/14 kt. The small tropical cyclone 
is expected to maintain a west-northwestward to northwestward motion 
for the next couple of days, resulting in landfall along the 
south-central coast of South Carolina later this evening. The small 
cyclone is expected to dissipate by 48 hours, if not sooner, when 
the system will be located over the southern Appalachian Mountains. 
The NHC track forecast lies close to the tightly packed GFS- and 
ECMWF-based Beta-Advection models due to the lack of any significant 
inner-core convection, which is allowing the cyclone to be steered 
more by the low-level flow rather than the deep-layer flow as 
depicted by the global and regional models.

There is a narrow window of opportunity this afternoon for the 
depression to strengthen into a tropical storm before landfall 
occurs. During the next few hours, the small cyclone will be passing 
over the warmer Gulf Stream where sea-surface temperatures are 
around 28 deg C. In addition, as the outer wind field begins to 
interact with land, low-level frictional convergence along and just 
offshore should help to generate deep convection just prior to 
landfall, helping to spin up the wind field. The NHC forecast shows 
the system becoming a tropical storm before landfall, and as a 
result a tropical storm warning has been issued for a portion of 
the South Carolina coast.

An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate 
the system this afternoon beginning around 1800 UTC, providing more 
detailed information on the cyclone's intensity.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall is possible from coastal southern South Carolina 
and Georgia, inland across the Piedmont of Georgia into northeast 
Alabama.  Isolated flooding is possible across urban areas of the 
southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of
the South Carolina coast late this afternoon and tonight where a 
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect 
portions of the South Carolina coast this afternoon and tonight. 
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 31.9N  78.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 32.8N  80.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  29/1200Z 34.2N  83.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  30/0000Z 35.2N  85.6W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[WxWatcher007]

That’ll work 

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Storm Danny Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042021
305 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021


...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Doppler radar data from Charleston, South Carolina, along with 
preliminary data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, 
indicate that the depression has strengthened and is now Tropical 
Storm Danny. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph 
(65 km/h) with higher gusts.

A Weatherflow station at Folly Beach, South Carolina, recently 
reported a wind gust of 41 mph (66 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 305 PM EDT...1905 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 79.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF BEAUFORT SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.94 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

 

[mattie g]

^

Wish I were at the in-laws' right now.

[frd]

40 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Tropical Storm Danny Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 305 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Not bad,  up to the letter D.  Not too shabby 

[WxWatcher007]

On 6/28/2021 at 4:00 PM, frd said:

Not bad,  up to the letter D.  Not too shabby 

Get ready for E. 97L looks like it’s trying to get it going.