WxWatcher007 Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 That low off SC actually looks decent tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 6 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: That low off SC actually looks decent tonight. Check it out now. I think we become 2-0-0 later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 55 minutes ago, George BM said: Check it out now. I think we become 2-0-0 later today. Saw that burst of convection last night and said that’s something that can pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 Kind of a waste of a storm but impressive how it developed this close to the coast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, H2O said: Kind of a waste of a storm but impressive how it developed this close to the coast Yeah. It’s a good reminder though of how quickly things can pop close to home. This is one of the more impressive ones I’ve seen in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 It’s also still a bit early, but 92L might be something to watch for remnant impacts next week. Both the GEFS and especially the EPS maintain some sort of low (post tropical once at our latitude) tracking near or over the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: It’s also still a bit early, but 92L might be something to watch for remnant impacts next week. Both the GEFS and especially the EPS maintain some sort of low (post tropical once at our latitude) tracking near or over the region. Some of those tracks (if the low is still decently discernable) could be good for a tropical remnant TOR threat as well. Would be fun to see both the severe and tropical threads be hot at the same time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Satellite and radar images show that the low pressure area that NHC has been following since yesterday off the coast of North Carolina has become better organized, with a small central dense overcast over the center and more prominent banding features. The low also has advanced ahead of a nearby diffuse stationary front, with that boundary lying northwest of the center. Considering the small core of the low, ample deep convection, satellite pattern, and that the low is feeding off of the thunderstorm activity (and not the front) -- it is now classified as a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, which is our best estimate assuming strengthening from the 20-25 kt overnight ASCAT and surface observations. The depression is moving northeastward at about 18 kt. A large mid-latitude trough digging across eastern North America should cause the cyclone to continue moving generally northeastward, but faster, over the next couple of days. In about 48 hours, the system is forecast to dissipate near Newfoundland as it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low. Model guidance is in very good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast lies near the track consensus. The depression has about 24 hours over marginally warm waters in low-to-moderate shear to strengthen before it moves north of the Gulf Stream and decays. Almost all of the intensity guidance shows the system becoming a tropical storm tonight, and considering the healthy initial structure, the official forecast follows that guidance. The low should lose tropical characteristics in about 36 hours due to very cold waters and dissipate near Newfoundland in about 2 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 35.0N 73.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 36.6N 70.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 39.8N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 43.6N 59.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 5 hours ago, Kmlwx said: Some of those tracks (if the low is still decently discernable) could be good for a tropical remnant TOR threat as well. Would be fun to see both the severe and tropical threads be hot at the same time. 12z Euro Out to lunch (probably) but great eye candy. (but watch the ensembles) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 @WxWatcher007 Nope. It's spot on. Notice the areas that get the highest impact. Get ready now SE subforum folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, George BM said: @WxWatcher007 Nope. It's spot on. Notice the areas that get the highest impact. Get ready now SE subforum folks. Haha it’s stronger off the Mid Atlantic coast than the Gulf. Probably post tropical but still fun lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Haha it’s stronger off the Mid Atlantic coast than the Gulf. Probably post tropical but still fun lol. Lol. I should've added the /s or or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 14, 2021 Author Share Posted June 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, George BM said: Lol. I should've added the /s or or something like that. I knew you were joking Let’s bring this one home (seriously though, the EPS has wanted to bring remnants north) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 15 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: 12z Euro Out to lunch (probably) but great eye candy. (but watch the ensembles) "That's the classic signature of a drought" - Some old pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 Where's @WxWatcher007 with our Billy update??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 15, 2021 Author Share Posted June 15, 2021 1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said: Where's @WxWatcher007 with our Billy update??? Out to sea. Good looking storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 15, 2021 Author Share Posted June 15, 2021 That microwave image 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 Euro tracks the remnants right through our area next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 15, 2021 Author Share Posted June 15, 2021 58 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Euro tracks the remnants right through our area next week EPS has been in lockstep. I’m a little more intrigued today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: EPS has been in lockstep. I’m a little more intrigued today. Having it be on the left side of that envelope would, of course be better for the action-seekers around here. The op Euro track would probably be decent for a little wind and heavy rain, but not so much for any severe weather threat. Honestly, though...ANY tropical threat to us mid-June is a win. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Having it be on the left side of that envelope would, of course be better for the action-seekers around here. The op Euro track would probably be decent for a little wind and heavy rain, but not so much for any severe weather threat. Honestly, though...ANY tropical threat to us mid-June is a win. We need to get a time machine and teleport back to this moment 49 years ago and live those following ten days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 15, 2021 Author Share Posted June 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Having it be on the left side of that envelope would, of course be better for the action-seekers around here. The op Euro track would probably be decent for a little wind and heavy rain, but not so much for any severe weather threat. Honestly, though...ANY tropical threat to us mid-June is a win. Fair enough. Euro is the furthest left. GEFS keeps things away for the most part. I’m not ready to bite, but it’s something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 44 minutes ago, George BM said: We need to get a time machine and teleport back to this moment 49 years ago and live those following ten days out. It kind of makes you wonder how a 2021 DC/Baltimore area would handle that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 16, 2021 Author Share Posted June 16, 2021 We’re still six days out, but the idea of a decent post tropical low up in the region is gaining traction with me. EPS remains bullish (note it almost certainly wouldn’t be tropical at this latitude, but the ensembles are picking up on a relatively “strong” low possible) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 I'll be out of the area early next week. Count on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 17, 2021 Author Share Posted June 17, 2021 Looks like we’re seeing a southward shift of the low once it’s inland. Could end up with nothing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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