WxWatcher007 Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 We're baaaaacckkk Another active season is expected, though there is enough uncertainty with ENSO that a hyperactive season seems unlikely at this point. We have our first orange of the season. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda by tomorrow afternoon and produce gale-force winds. The low is then forecast to move west-southwestward over warmer waters on Friday and could become a short-lived subtropical cyclone over the weekend to the northeast of Bermuda. The system is expected to move toward the north and northeast into a more hostile environment by Monday. For more information on this system, please see High Seas forecasts issued by the Ocean Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. High Seas Forecasts for this system can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Blake 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 20, 2021 Author Share Posted May 20, 2021 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms has developed several hundred miles east of Bermuda. A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form within this broad cloud system a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda by tomorrow and produce gale-force winds. The low is then forecast to move westward and southwestward over warmer waters on Friday, and will likely become a short-lived subtropical cyclone late Friday and into the weekend near and to the northeast of Bermuda. The system is expected to move toward the north and northeast into a more hostile environment by late Sunday into Monday. For more information on this developing system, please see High Seas forecasts issued by the Ocean Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 Looking goodly. ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A non-tropical low pressure system is located about 800 miles east of Bermuda. The low is expected to develop gale-force winds later today while it moves generally northward. The low is then forecast to move westward and southwestward over warmer waters tonight and Friday, and it will likely become a subtropical cyclone near and to the northeast of Bermuda on Friday. The system is expected to move toward the north and northeast into a more hostile environment by late Sunday into Monday. For more information on this developing low pressure area, please see High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 20, 2021 Author Share Posted May 20, 2021 Yeah, nothing of interest for the US but it’ll likely continue the streak of preseason development. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 20, 2021 Author Share Posted May 20, 2021 NOAA outlook has arrived and no surprise it’s calling for another active season. MDR (Main Development Region) remains behind last year’s historic pace in temp anomalies but just like the past few seasons, we’re seeing big warmth in the homebrew regions. Given that a neutral ENSO reduces shear, that’s a meaningful signal for a favorable western Atlantic provided the steering pattern is ridge dominant. SST Depth 26° C TCHP Current Anomalies (note that the SST distribution in the subtropics north of the MDR now tends to translate to above normal MDR temps during the peak of the season) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 20, 2021 Author Share Posted May 20, 2021 12z Euro could be spazing out but it takes that little MCS off the Texas coast and develops it into a short-lived low over the next 24-48 hours. These old features are a way to get tropical genesis, but the SSTs off the Texas coast are marginal. Wonder if the ensembles follow. Last year the Euro really struggled with TC genesis. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 21, 2021 Author Share Posted May 21, 2021 NHC dropping a lemon on that disturbance off the Texas coast now. 20% odds of development. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 Yay! Love to track a good tropical event. Thanks for getting the party started. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 21, 2021 Author Share Posted May 21, 2021 Invest 91L is looking more organized this morning and quickly went from nothing to an orange. Still a marginal environment, especially near the coast. Needs some convection to raise the chances of TC genesis and bring the first landfall of the season. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low pressure area centered about 450 miles east-northeast of Bermuda have become better organized during the past several hours. The low has not yet acquired subtropical storm characteristics. However, if current trends continue advisories could be initiated on the system later today or tonight as it moves westward to west-southwestward to the northeast of Bermuda. Subsequently, the low is forecast to move northeastward into a more hostile environment by Saturday night or Sunday. Additional information on this low pressure area can be found in High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products, including a tropical storm watch, issued by the Bermuda Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. 2. Recent satellite imagery suggests that a low-level circulation is forming associated with the mid- to upper-level disturbance over the western Gulf of Mexico. However, shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development, and a short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the disturbance moves inland over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana during the next few days. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Beven/Papin 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 21, 2021 Author Share Posted May 21, 2021 91L up to 60% odds. Not a lot of time left to develop. 2pm outlook. Odds up to 60%. 2. Surface observations and recent satellite wind data indicate that a well-defined low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico has winds of 30-35 mph near and east of the center. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited, but any increase in this activity may result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression or storm before the system moves inland over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight, and potential tropical cyclone advisories may be needed as early as this afternoon. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana through Saturday. Given the complete saturation of soils with ongoing river flooding along the Texas and Louisiana coastal areas, heavy rain could lead to flash, urban, and additional riverine flooding across this region. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 22, 2021 Author Share Posted May 22, 2021 Hello, Ana! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 31, 2021 Author Share Posted May 31, 2021 Just a quick and lazy update on my part. Hurricane season officially begin tomorrow. There's a slight but growing signal that the first legitimate window for development in the western Atlantic (including western Caribbean) opens up near the middle of the month. To be clear, it's still early, but we're now starting to see that western Atlantic minimally conducive from a SST standpoint (just recall SSTs were below 26C ten days ago for 91L) and guidance suggests that wind shear in the western Atlantic will be lower and we could see a favorable MJO state for development near the middle of the month. Anything that develops in the western Caribbean would have a shot at decent development given the oceanic environment. Long way to go but something to keep an eye on. As you can see below, this is a climo favored spot in the first 2/3 of June. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 Just working on compiling the Hurricane History around the Northern Virginia area. Anyone have some good resources that will help me in my endeavors? Thanks, and welcome to the season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 1, 2021 Author Share Posted June 1, 2021 7 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: Just working on compiling the Hurricane History around the Northern Virginia area. Anyone have some good resources that will help me in my endeavors? Thanks, and welcome to the season! Maybe LWX has something? What specifically are you looking to compile? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 06z GFS has some weak tropical-esque system coming right up the Chesapeake around HR 340. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: 06z GFS has some weak tropical-esque system coming right up the Chesapeake around HR 340. Is it too predictable to make a lock it in joke? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 06z GFS has some weak tropical-esque system coming right up the Chesapeake around HR 340. And naturally, it completely vaporizes even before precip gets to DC for the most part - would not be shocking to see that happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 Slightly off-topic, but NHC should just officially move the Atlantic season start from June 1 to May 15 to match the Pacific. Seems like every year has a May system now. I don't know if there's a reason for this- climate change or just some multi-decade oscillation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 2, 2021 Author Share Posted June 2, 2021 51 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 06z GFS has some weak tropical-esque system coming right up the Chesapeake around HR 340. Both the GEFS and EPS have a little signal for some type of tropical development in the Gulf or Caribbean around mid month. It'd fit climo and that's where the best SSTs and TCHP are right now (especially Caribbean). 49 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Is it too predictable to make a lock it in joke? Just wait until the peak of the season. There's always one run that goes nuclear for the region 37 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: Slightly off-topic, but NHC should just officially move the Atlantic season start from June 1 to May 15 to match the Pacific. Seems like every year has a May system now. I don't know if there's a reason for this- climate change or just some multi-decade oscillation? Seven straight years. I think it's more multi-decade oscillation for early stuff and climate change for stronger, more moisture laden, and slower tropical systems. Most of what we see in May is still weak stuff. I've heard some say that if we saw hurricanes in May, that'd probably change the starting date, because people need a different level of communication and prep for that. I liked that they started doing regular outlooks on May 15. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 2, 2021 Author Share Posted June 2, 2021 Posting the tweet to properly cite, but the images show a potentially conducive pattern ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 We're expecting another baby boy in early October, and just found out the name we had picked is actually on the hurricane names list this year. It's pretty far down the list so it's possible to be a hit here right around that time. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 30 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: We're expecting another baby boy in early October, and just found out the name we had picked is actually on the hurricane names list this year. It's pretty far down the list so it's possible to be a hit here right around that time. Congrats! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: We're expecting another baby boy in early October, and just found out the name we had picked is actually on the hurricane names list this year. It's pretty far down the list so it's possible to be a hit here right around that time. Hopefully not Odette or Ida. (anyone see what I did there?) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 Hitting up topsail on 6/12 for the week. Hoping any leftovers stay away. Been screwed too many times in June over past few years so shifted from obx to topsail to see if have better luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 3, 2021 Author Share Posted June 3, 2021 CSU has released their new outlook. “We have maintained our above-average forecast for the 2021 Atlantic basin hurricane season. Current neutral ENSO conditions are anticipated to persist for the next several months. While sea surface temperatures averaged across portions of the tropical Atlantic are near to slightly below normal, subtropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are much warmer than average. We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 3, 2021 Author Share Posted June 3, 2021 It's probably a miss, but if you're looking for eye candy the 12Z GFS has it for you. Nice cane right off the east coast mid month out of the pattern we've been discussing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 4, 2021 Author Share Posted June 4, 2021 The signal I started talking about earlier in the week is growing. As you can see below, I think it’s fair to say the environment will be favorable especially the latter portion of next week. Two areas to watch IMO 1) The western Caribbean/Bay of Campeche—this is far and away the prime zone as a CAG develops and shear drops off next week. High likelihood something pops here. 2) SE US Coast—the likelihood is much lower here given the lack of warm SSTs at the moment but as a font sinks down next week there could be something subtropical or weak tropical that pops along that area of focus. 12z GFS hints at it and both the GEFS/EPS have some low probabilities there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 7, 2021 Author Share Posted June 7, 2021 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by Thursday or Friday. Some gradual development will be possible thereafter as the system moves slowly northwestward toward Central America. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Stewart 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 12, 2021 Author Share Posted June 12, 2021 Been talking about it for a long time, but now it looks like development will be focused in the BoC Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. An area of cloudiness and showers has developed over the Bay of Campeche and the adjacent land areas. Slow development of this system is possible over the next several days as it moves slowly and erratically, and a tropical depression could form in this area by the middle of next week. Due to the slow motion, regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Beven/Latto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now