janetjanet998 Posted May 16, 2021 Share Posted May 16, 2021 Tropical fire house into eastern/central TX then and north Flash Flood watches up for the next 3 days in places including DFW Most of the drought is west of this area and some places have already been wet this spring Soil Moisture neutral/slightly above average but well above NE Texas 7 day precip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 16, 2021 Author Share Posted May 16, 2021 12 model runs next 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 16, 2021 Author Share Posted May 16, 2021 MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0181 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1216 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2021 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH NORTH TEXAS CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 161615Z - 162115Z SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR FLASH-FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTH TEXAS INTO EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. DISCUSSION...A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE IS LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL OK WITH AN AXIS OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXTENDING NORTH FROM SOUTH TX AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS AXIS OVER NORTH TEXAS WITH RECENT MAX ONE HOUR RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM KFWS OF 1.5 TO LOCALLY 2" OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE DALLAS METRO. PWS OF 1.6" TO 1.7" WILL CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED BY 25KT SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW WITH SBCAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. 1HR FFG IS LOWER THROUGH THE DALLAS METRO/ALONG I-35E (BETWEEN 2.0" AND 2.5"/HR) WHERE THE GREATER MOISTURE IS PRESENT. FARTHER NORTH IN EAST-CENTRAL OK ARE PWS AROUND 1.5" AND 1HR FFG IS GENERALLY JUST ABOVE 2.5"/HR. HOWEVER, THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW SOME LONGER RESIDENCE TIME FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, MAKING FOR A SIMILAR ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD IN PARTS OF CENTRAL OK TO NORTH TX THIS AFTERNOON. JACKSON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 16, 2021 Share Posted May 16, 2021 A band of 2-4" of rain has already fallen over the west / northwest part of Dallas (between I-20 and I-635): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 16, 2021 Share Posted May 16, 2021 Flood Advisory National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1214 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 TXC113-161915- /O.NEW.KFWD.FA.Y.0018.210516T1714Z-210516T1915Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Dallas TX- 1214 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for Poor Drainage Areas for... Western Dallas County in north central Texas... * Until 215 PM CDT. * At 1214 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding. Areas that are low lying or poor drainage areas will experience minor flooding in the advisory area. Up to 2 inches of rain has already fallen in parts of western Dallas county. Some locations that will experience flooding include... Dallas, Garland, Irving, Grand Prairie, Carrollton, Richardson, Desoto, Cedar Hill, Duncanville, Lancaster, Farmers Branch, University Park, Addison, Glenn Heights, Highland Park, Cockrell Hill, Ovilla, Cedar Hill State Park and Buckingham. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected over the area. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent. && LAT...LON 3272 9704 3297 9691 3297 9663 3254 9683 3254 9704 $$ TR.92 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 16, 2021 Author Share Posted May 16, 2021 Not off to the best start in the multi day event ..Upper Trinity river basin getting hit hard.. Lake lewisville basin also got a good soaking (1-2 inches) THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... WESTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 430 PM CDT. * AT 122 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN NEAR I-30 AND LOOP 12. SOME ROADS ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING MINOR FLOODING AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 16, 2021 Share Posted May 16, 2021 2 hours ago, Powerball said: Technically, DFW still has a deficit for the year. So I don't think the flood problems will get too bad as long as much of the rain doesn't fall at once. Welp, this might not have aged well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 16, 2021 Author Share Posted May 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, Powerball said: Welp, this might not have aged well... DFW airport has gotten the gaps so far this spring More north and much more southeast metro have .86 so far today and the band set up SE a few miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 16, 2021 Share Posted May 16, 2021 There is a slow moving rainband from Lawton to OKC . . . Flood warning for OKC Metro because 1-2 inches has fallen . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 16, 2021 Author Share Posted May 16, 2021 New 7 day...10 inch pixel over TX keep in mind this doesn't start until after 00z so it doesn't include the rain falling now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 16, 2021 Share Posted May 16, 2021 Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0181 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1216 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 Areas affected...East-Central Oklahoma through North Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 161615Z - 162115Z Summary...Potential for flash-flooding this afternoon along a moisture/instability axis extending from North Texas into east-central Oklahoma. Discussion...A mid-level impulse is lifting northeast through central OK with an axis of moisture/instability extending north from south TX ahead of this wave. Scattered thunderstorms have developed in this axis over North Texas with recent max one hour rainfall estimates from KFWS of 1.5 to locally 2" over the I-35 corridor including the Dallas metro. PWs of 1.6" to 1.7" will continue to be reinforced by 25kt southerly 850mb flow with SBCAPE of 500 to 1000 J/Kg. 1hr FFG is lower through the Dallas metro/along I-35E (between 2.0" and 2.5"/hr) where the greater moisture is present. Farther north in east-central OK are PWs around 1.5" and 1hr FFG is generally just above 2.5"/hr. However, the mid-level circulation should continue to allow some longer residence time for moderate to heavy rain, making for a similar isolated flash flood in parts of central OK to North TX this afternoon. Jackson ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36149685 35659572 32829579 31379606 30989647 31009701 31079741 31539761 32049748 32489727 33239725 33739720 34329769 34509844 35479778 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 16, 2021 Share Posted May 16, 2021 Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1121 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021 Day 1 Valid 12Z Sun May 16 2021 - 12Z Mon May 17 2021 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST... 1600 UTC update Only some minor changes made to the previous Excessive Rainfall Outlook. The slight risk over northeast Kansas was extended farther to the southwest to cover lower ffg values from overnight heavy rains. The slight risk over south central Oklahoma was extended into southeast Oklahoma after viewing new 1200 UTC hi res guidance. The marginal and slight risk areas over South Texas were also extended slightly farther south for current radar trends. See WPC's mesoscale precipitation discussions #0179 valid until 1740 UTC and #0180 valid until 1914 UTC for addition information across northeast Kansas and South Texas. Oravec 0900 UTC discussion ...Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Ongoing convection across portions of Kansas is forecast to continue to shift east during the morning hours, with weakening expected as it moves into western Missouri during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Redevelopment is expected however by late afternoon and continuing into the evening with the return of daytime heating and persistent southerly flow into a slow-moving boundary extending across Kansas and northern Missouri. Recent runs of the RAP and NAM show PWs approaching 1.5 inches by the afternoon along the leading edge of southwesterly low level inflow into the boundary across northern Missouri. This along with slow-moving, mid-level energy is expected to support the development of heavy rains. Slow-cell movement along with the potential for training will raise the potential for heavy accumulations and the threat for localized runoff concerns. The 00Z HREF neighborhood probabilities (40km) for accumulations of 2-inches or more are well-above 50 percent within the Slight Risk area, with some high probabilities for 3-inches or more across portions of central Missouri. ...Southern Oklahoma to Central Texas... Waning convection moving east of the Texas Panhandle this morning is expected to redevelop farther east as a weak mid-level shortwave interacts with an plume of deeper moisture (PWs 1.5-2 inches) spreading north along an axis of 20-40 kt winds. With the return of daytime heating, heavy rains are expected to return, with the 00Z HREF indicating high neighborhood probabilities for accumulations of 2-inches or more during the afternoon hours. This convection is expected to propagate east of the Slight Risk area by the evening hours; however, some models show upstream convection developing over the High Plains propagating southeast back into the region overnight. ...Middle and Upper Texas Coast... Mid-level energy interacting with persistent onshore flow and PWs of 1.75-2+ inches is expected to support the development of slow-moving heavy rains during the day. While confidence in the details is limited, the hi-res guidance shows a good signal for locally heavy amounts along the Middle Texas coast developing later this morning, with the HREF showing high probabilities for local accumulations of 3-inches or more. Convection is expected to progress more steadily to the east during the day, however some models show heavy accumulations making it farther east along the Upper Texas Coast, including the Houston metro, during the afternoon. ...Central Rockies into the High Plains... Convection is expected to develop once again along the Colorado and New Mexico high terrain during the late afternoon/evening hours. Locally heavy amounts developing may result in short-term runoff problems over the eastern Colorado high terrain, especially across burn scar areas, before propagating east into the High Plains. Pereira Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 16, 2021 Share Posted May 16, 2021 I remember there being some concern that the Western drought would expand throughout the Plains this spring. Thankfully that doesn't seem to be the case. Upper Midwest has seen significant improvement of late, but we here in southern WI are still running a pretty substantial rainfall deficit for the year, and southern Lower MI is even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 16, 2021 Share Posted May 16, 2021 Radar indicates a band of 5-7" of rain in west and northwest Dallas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 16, 2021 Share Posted May 16, 2021 Pretty impressive swath of 3"+ rain across NW Dallas County. I'm interested to see what the rainfaill total will be out of Love Field (maybe upwards of 7"?). It seems to be the bullseye. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 16, 2021 Share Posted May 16, 2021 Flood Advisory National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 245 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 TXC085-162245- /O.NEW.KFWD.FA.Y.0019.210516T1945Z-210516T2245Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Collin TX- 245 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for Poor Drainage Areas for... Southwestern Collin County in north central Texas... * Until 545 PM CDT. * At 245 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding. Areas that are low lying or poor drainage areas will experience minor flooding in the advisory area. Some locations that will experience flooding include... Plano, Garland, McKinney, Carrollton, Frisco, Richardson, Allen, Wylie, Sachse, Murphy, Fairview, Princeton, Lucas, Parker, Lowry Crossing, St. Paul and New Hope. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets, and underpasses as well as other drainage areas and low lying spots. && LAT...LON 3304 9684 3315 9684 3325 9665 3318 9645 3297 9655 3299 9684 3300 9684 3301 9684 3302 9684 3303 9684 $$ TR.92 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted May 16, 2021 Share Posted May 16, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 16, 2021 Share Posted May 16, 2021 This is gold: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 16, 2021 Author Share Posted May 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Powerball said: Pretty impressive swath of 3"+ rain across NW Dallas County. I'm interested to see what the rainfaill total will be out of Love Field (maybe upwards of 7"?). It seems to be the bullseye. 5.11 at Love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 17, 2021 Author Share Posted May 17, 2021 new 7 day ...10 inch pixel again in the short term a small MCS is SE of Dallas and south of the heavy rain yesterday DFW getting moderate rains maybe 1/3 to /12 inch this morning but will likely have to wait under tonight for next round of heavy rain based on trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 Well, from a flooding standpoint, the good news is that CAMs models are rather unimpressive looking over the next 48 hours for DFW. It's messy, but the organized convection manages to do a hop, skip and jump over the region between the poor timing and the outflow boundaries, which is the nature of how things work with mesoscale complexes. The CAMs aren't perfect though. We'll see how right they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 18, 2021 Author Share Posted May 18, 2021 updated total precip map NW sections got the most rains apst 24 hours MCS moving into the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 Massive localized flooding under some storms in SW MO. They got about 6-8" in a 6 hour period, caused flooding but it was really localized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 18, 2021 Author Share Posted May 18, 2021 southern LA has been extremely wet so far this year Lake Charles had over a foot yesterday 12.49 New Orleans has been insane this spring May 11.96 +8.81 Since March 1 34.59 +21.86 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 21, 2021 Author Share Posted May 21, 2021 More heavy rain over eastern Texas and LA Rivers and bayous high tropical disturbance over Gulf should move into TX with high PW values on its NE flank moving into the area pattern has has been looked in all spring soil very wet any summer tropical systems could mean major flooding' updated Soil Moisture \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 31, 2021 Author Share Posted May 31, 2021 nothing extreme the past 10 days or so ..but above normal precip continued in east TX up into KS/MO soil moisture wet no death ridges more flash flood watches up today Lakes in DFW area running high and some in flood and parts of the areas closed any slow tropical systems this summer moving around the SE ridge into the area could be trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 31, 2021 Author Share Posted May 31, 2021 Slow moving MCS with a WAA arm soaking NW DFW metro * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... CENTRAL PARKER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... NORTHWESTERN TARRANT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 800 PM CDT. * AT 454 PM CDT, TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN IN THE PAST HOUR NEAR WEATHERFORD. THESE RAIN TOTALS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING THAT IS EITHER ONGOING OR EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 3, 2021 Author Share Posted June 3, 2021 After the wettest May on record for some areas, parts of Texas and Louisiana prepare for more Between May 16-22, a weather reporting station south of Lake Charles, Louisiana, tallied over 21 inches of precipitation, while Baton Rouge saw a staggering 15 inches during the same period. Victoria, Texas, received 20.28 inches of rain during the month of May, eclipsing the previous record of 14.66 inches in 1993. With even more rain in the forecast for these hard-hit areas, the same locations will once again face the threat of flooding. https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/06/03/weather/texas-flooding-louisiana-weekend-rainfall/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted June 6, 2021 Share Posted June 6, 2021 ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1052 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has extended the * Flash Flood Warning for... Southwestern Collin County in north central Texas... * Until 100 AM CDT. * At 1052 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated continued thunderstorm development across southwest Collin County producing additional heavy rainfall. Multiple reports of urban flooding have been received from McKinney to Plano. Between 3 and 5 inches of rain have already fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets, and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Plano, McKinney, Frisco, Allen, and Fairview. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now