Mothers Day Snowstorm?

[A-L-E-K]

looks like a much needed deep soaker

[Hoosier]

Euro is still on the southern end of things.  

All in all, would think there will be a good amount of precip into at least southern Chicago metro.  Gets trickier with northward extent.

[hardypalmguy]

Lock it in. Southern Wisconsin snowmageddon. We get more snow in April/May than we do December. Gotta love climate change.




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[Stebo]

4 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

Lock it in. Southern Wisconsin snowmageddon. We get more snow in April/May than we do December. Gotta love climate change.




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[Chicago Storm]

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[Hoosier]

I wonder what has a better chance at verifying.  This, or the Chinese space debris hitting me on the head

Check out the 10:1 map for extra laughs

 

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

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Words can't even say how anomalous that would be.

[Cary67]

6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

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Could be another miss to the south. ❄

[Hoosier]

Although the thermal profiles in the lowest several thousand feet are marginal, I am pretty well sold on a changeover to snow at this point.  The bigger questions imo are how long it lasts in any given area and how well it would be able to accumulate. 

[hawkeye_wx]

The 00z NAM, like the HRRR, is a bit hotter with snow Sunday morning.

However, the 3k NAM has no snow at all.

[Hoosier]

Fwiw, ORD hasn't officially had more than a trace of snow in May since 1989.

The daily record for 5/9 is 0.1", set in 1923.

[Hoosier]

Surface temps are of course a question mark, but one of the other challenges is the deep layer in the low levels that is straddling the 0C mark. 

Here's a NAM forecast sounding for west of Chicago.  If this is even slightly too cold in the lowest several thousand feet, the precip will struggle to change to snow and would remain a rain/snow mix at best.  

[A-L-E-K]

Lol

[StormfanaticInd]

Ice age

[cyclone77]

The 00z Euro took a big jump north with the precip shield compared to many of it's previous cycles.  The 1" total line jumped north about 50-75 miles compared to earlier runs.  

Looks like the wet snow potential is very real.  If it happens here it will be well after midnight and before sunrise so I def won't be seeing any of it lol.

[A-L-E-K]

On 5/6/2021 at 4:14 PM, A-L-E-K said:

it's not gonna snow here but i think euro 2 far south with heavy rain

[Baum]

the palm dude might have screwed us with this thread. But honestly, any moisture is good at this point. Ready for 90's memorial day weekend.

[A-L-E-K]

12z hrrr still warning criteria for metro on kuchera 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Razor sharp cutoff on the northern edge between heavy rain (and potential snow) and nothing. Modes seem to be homing in on placing that line right across the IL/WI border 

[madwx]

3KM NAM wants to give us snow showers with a shortwave on Monday. 
 

The ride never ends

[A-L-E-K]

NAM with 8" for Cary#s

 

looks like the hrrr shifted a lil north, LOT might need headlines

p wild for kuchera map less than 24 hours out in May

 

[Thundersnow12]

Ready to be buried 

[CheeselandSkies]

1 hour ago, madwx said:

3KM NAM wants to give us snow showers with a shortwave on Monday. 
 

The ride never ends

Forecast for Monday is partly sunny and 55.

[Hoosier]

Taking a blend of models, the southern fringe of the changeover would run somewhere around here.  It's tricky to put odds on it.  I think the warming influence of onshore flow will be largely deflected to the north of here at least through 12z Sun or so as the flow is E/ENE.  After that time it does develop more of a northerly component.

[Hoosier]

The most recent HRRR runs are drifting south.  Could be noise, or maybe not.

[Hoosier]

I'll say this... there are probably worse lead-ins for getting snow to stick in May.  Recent highs around here have been in the 50s and the last couple nights were in the 30s, including below freezing last night.  Precip rates look fairly heavy so if it can actually change to snow around here, I think it would stick at least on colder surfaces.  The time of day is pretty optimal as well.

[Hoosier]

This is the last Euro snow map I plan to post for many months.

Usual caveat about 10:1

[ILSNOW]

[Chicago WX]

That random 0.1” around IKK. 

Regardless of the snow, what an awful cold wet storm for almost mid May. 

[cyclone77]

Looks like the triple R is starting to back off the ridiculous snow output from previous runs.  

Shows over 2" of rain here.  Ready 2b drowned.