03-05 MAY 2021 Severe Event

[brianc33710]

If someone else has started this feel free to delete this. I only see this topic in TN Valley  & South-Central states.

 

SPC AC 041629 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue May 04 2021 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS TO WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST AL... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous to widespread damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected through this evening across the Deep South. ...TX to the Southeast... Complex forecast this afternoon into the evening with several clusters of ongoing convection from southeast TX to the southern Appalachians. A moist and moderate to strongly unstable air mass exists across a broad region ahead of this activity. As noted in 12Z regional observed soundings, this is where an elevated mixed layer/plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is established atop rich boundary layer moisture with surface dew points in the low 70s that precedes an eastward-moving cold front located near the ArkLaTex and southeast Texas. Influenced by the progressive southern stream shortwave trough, storms should expand in coverage/intensity this afternoon with a corresponding uptick in wind damage potential expected aside from a persistent severe hail risk. Strengthening belt of southwesterly low/mid-tropospheric winds will support organized storms including growth into multiple quasi-linear MCSs. Widespread damaging winds, some significant, and brief tornadoes will be possible with the primary QLCS that is expected to evolve across the Lower MS Valley into AL. ...Mid-Atlantic States... With a portion of the elevated mixed-layer present across parts of the region as sampled by the 12Z GSO/RNK soundings, destabilization will be pronounced today as nearly full insolation is occurring east of the Appalachians. An MCV will probably emanate east-northeast out of an MCS that has weakened over the southern Appalachians. The net result should be the potential for scattered damaging winds from strong to isolated severe gusts as multicell clusters spread towards the Mid-Atlantic Coast. ...Mid-South to Lower OH Valley... Partial clearing is underway ahead of the mid-level shortwave trough over the Ozarks. This should contribute to sufficient recovery for a threat of isolated to scattered large hail and damaging winds downstream of this trough, along the eastward-moving cold front. ..Grams/Moore.. 05/04/2021 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1816Z (1:16PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

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