General Severe Weather Discussion

[eyewall]

Some April Fools fun:
 

[NorthHillsWx]

NWS confirmed EF1 from yesterday’s storm in RTP. 
 

 

[Avdave]

Some pics I took this afternoon of the EF 1 tornado yesterday here in Morrisville. This is about a mile from my house. 

 

[Iceresistance]

Dixie Alley tornado threat is starting to peak, & it's April

Day 1 Severe Weather threat is in Central Florida
Day 2 is for my general area
Day 3 returns to Dixie Alley

 

[GoAPPS]

Tuesday and Wednesday are looking more interesting.

[eyewall]

Yeah it is almost tempting to chase Wednesday if the prospect for discretes improves.

[yoda]

Hatched tor on day 2 1730 OTLK 

 

[eyewall]

Some shots of mine from today chasing supercells in the NC Coastal Plain:
 

[eyewall]

This one shows some striations on the base, especially bottom right:
 

 

[Bevo]

11 hours ago, eyewall said:

Some shots of mine from today chasing supercells in the NC Coastal Plain:

Was this a still photo taken from a video? That's the only way I've ever been able to get the cloud to ground shots.

[eyewall]

3 hours ago, Bevo said:

Was this a still photo taken from a video? That's the only way I've ever been able to get the cloud to ground shots.

Yes it was. Also here is a ground shot of the wall cloud underneath the meso. It is easier to see here since it is not wide angle:
 

[yotaman]

Wow, watching the Weather Channel and there was a weather station run by the University of Georgia that was in the direct path of one of those Tornadoes that hit the other day. It recorded a gust of 129 mph. The station was damaged but the anemometer was still operating. They are waiting for the NWS to verify the gust before releasing it.

[eyewall]

I am re-editing the Apr 7th photos with much less haste this go around (more to come):
 

[eyewall]

All the final edits from April 7th and I promise I'm done:
 

[yotaman]

Fantastic photos eyewall. Thanks for posting them.

[eyewall]

1 hour ago, yotaman said:

Fantastic photos eyewall. Thanks for posting them.

Thank you

[olafminesaw]

Fairly strongly worded disco for a d2 slight risk from SPC. Just depends on capping will allow development while instability is higher.

..NC/VA...
   Low 60s dewpoints will likely be in place across much of NC early
   Friday morning, with higher values near the coast. This moist air
   mass is forecast advect northward throughout the day amid the
   southerly low-level flow ahead of the approaching outflow, with the
   northern extent of this better moisture acting as an effective warm
   front. Isolated thunderstorm development along this warm front is
   possible, where wind profiles support supercells. Damaging wind
   gusts and a tornado or two are possible with these storms if
   updrafts can mature.

   After this initial isolated threat, more widespread thunderstorm
   development is possible as the outflow moves into the region amid
   mid 60s dewpoints and moderate buoyancy. Damaging wind gusts within
   any more organized bowing segments are the primary severe risk.

[GoAPPS]

That's quite a sounding for Asheville of all places.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

South Boston, VA from 12z NAM

[Chinook]

3 hours ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

South Boston, VA from 12z NAM

Enhanced outlook for the tornado (10%) and wind (30%) for parts of Virginia and North Carolina. The tornado 10% area includes areas near Richmond into northern North Carolina. The wind outlook is a larger 30%.

 

[olafminesaw]

A lot of cloud cover moving into the primary threat regions. Typically limits potential. Probably for the best.

 

Although FWIW, the HRRR has clearing pushing in from the south, between 10 am (Charlotte) and 2 pm (VA border)

[olafminesaw]

Purely based on radar, i'm thinking this zone will be a primary threat area (behavior of early convection and of course areas that clear can be indicators)

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Concerning cloud cover, that’s not entirely true. Some of our biggest days (8/6/93 and 2/24/16) featured cloud cover extensively across the region during early half of the day. Regardless, this threat is driven by a warm front lifting to I64, surface low in OH, and a secondary surface low trying to develop back in western NC. Classic, textbook setup that has produced some of the regions biggest days for severe weather. Though I will say some soundings suggest zero capping inversion which could be a limiting factor as that would suggest a mixed/messy convective mode.

[olafminesaw]

40 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Concerning cloud cover, that’s not entirely true. Some of our biggest days (8/6/93 and 2/24/16) featured cloud cover extensively across the region during early half of the day. Regardless, this threat is driven by a warm front lifting to I64, surface low in OH, and a secondary surface low trying to develop back in western NC. Classic, textbook setup that has produced some of the regions biggest days for severe weather. Though I will say some soundings suggest zero capping inversion which could be a limiting factor as that would suggest a mixed/messy convective mode.

You see the wedge eroding on visible. Pretty neat with mid level clouds moving west to east and low level clouds/fog moving south to north

[NorthHillsWx]

13 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

You see the wedge eroding on visible. Pretty neat with mid level clouds moving west to east and low level clouds/fog moving south to north

Per visible most piedmont areas should see significant clearing shortly 

[olafminesaw]

[WxSynopsisDavid]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Overall I think this outlook is solid and has a decent chance of verifying

[NorthHillsWx]

Clouds have broken here and temp has shot to 84

[Chinook]

possible hail up to 1" west of Raleigh NC right now. (0.75" reported) I wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado warning west of Raleigh or perhaps east, near Williamston or Greenville NC, given the overall scenario with higher parameters in the area.

[olafminesaw]

A bit of a couplet possibly developing