General Severe Weather Discussion

[NorthHillsWx]

Just picked my daughter up from daycare near creedmoor and millbrook and hit the storm on the way back. Worst storm I’ve been in a long time. Branches down and power went out while we were sitting at light. Looked like 50-60 mph wind

[NCsandhills]

We briefly had pea sized hail in Durham/RTP! That was a good bit of wind too.

[eolian]

Probably a tornado north of Greenville SC , travelers rest area.

[eolian]

Approaching Tigerville SC but weakening per WYFF.

[NorthHillsWx]

13 minutes ago, eolian said:

Approaching Tigerville SC but weakening per WYFF.

It was brief but the was a CC drop for a few minutes 

[NorthHillsWx]

RDU gust of at least 63

[LakeNormanStormin]

80 degrees and sunny here by Lake Norman in North Meck.

Atmosphere is recharging.

Had strong storm this morning around 6AM and another around 2PM.

[featherwx]

Awfully quiet in here. Structural damage reports coming in from a likely tornado near Mebane 

 

[featherwx]

Tornado-warned storm moving directly toward Charlotte now

[olafminesaw]

Hmmm

[Chinook]

extreme northern North Carolina

radar most likely detected a TDS in this vicinity, Walnut Cove to Mayodan/Madison

Quote

NCC157-062345-
/O.CON.KRNK.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-220506T2345Z/
Rockingham NC-
726 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EDT FOR 
WESTERN ROCKINGHAM COUNTY...
        
At 725 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Ellisboro, or
over Madison, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and half dollar size hail.

 

[featherwx]

Worried about Rockingham County…

 

EDIT: PDS warning now, this is looking really bad

[SmokeEater]

Worried about Rockingham County…
 
EDIT: PDS warning now, this is looking really bad

Structure collapses reported in the area now.

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[Chinook]

It does look like tornado debris has been on the radar south of Wentworth, NC.

[landof2rivers]

Took kids and pets to the basement but didn’t experience much here thankfully. I’m very worried about the Wentworth area.

[Chinook]

Funnel cloud at Norfolk south suburbs, VA

[SmokeEater]

Took kids and pets to the basement but didn’t experience much here thankfully. I’m very worried about the Wentworth area.

Numerous collapses in that area, scanner going nuts. Also a pic of the supercell, insane structure.

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[kc4wsd]

Multiple trees down in Wentworth area, on Baker's Crossroads and County Home R
Structure fire on Wentworth Street, and access from Wentworth end is blocked by downed trees, delaying response times.
University Estates neighborhood has multiple trees down as well, but worst damage seems to be on Wentworth Street near NC 87.

[landof2rivers]

This is from a friend between Eden and Reidsville off of Mount Carmel Church Road.

[eyewall]

What an incredible day it was! I was on the road home after chasing in TX/OK. I got this tor:

 

[Chinook]

NWS blacksburg confirmed a EF1 tornado south of Wentworth

 

Quote

Time: 2022-05-06 23:44 UTC
Event: 0 TORNADO
Source: nws storm survey
Remark: the rated ef-1 tornado touched down in a wooded area just southwest of sunset view road, (36.37n, 79.78w), and proceeded northeast, producing discontinuous damage along its path, before lifting near the intersection of crutchfield road and u.s. highway 29 business, (36.39n, 79.65w) at 757 pm edt. the length of the tornado track was estimated to be 7.9 miles, and the maximum width was approximately 300 yards.

 

[yotaman]

Tornado reported on the ground by spotters in New Bern 15 miles from me.

[calm_days]

 

A fairly broad Slight Risk today, but without really appearing in the HRRR. It does have mixed model support

 

ILM:

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Flat mid level flow through the period as low amplitude ridge stays
suppressed in the Bahamas. Below 500mb however heights rise and a
long trajectory from the SSW pushes 850mb to almost 20C easily
allowing afternoon temperatures to soar into the mid to upper 90s, a
few 100 degree readings seemingly possible. Models have backed off
considerably in their depiction of early PM seabreeze convection and
given the deep subcloud layer in fcst soundings this idea appears to
have some merit. Later in the afternoon attention turns to the west.
Convective vort max now over OK to be traversing the mountains while
the sweltering heat yields 2500-3000 J/Kg of CAPE. Convection likely
focused to our north (misses us completely according to the WRF) but
HREF ensemble paintball output as well as the operational GFS shows
pretty uniform areal coverage of storms. Damaging wind and frequent
lightning appear the main threats. Severe hail also possible as the
very wide CAPE in forecast soundings imply very high updraft speeds.
The high LCLs and dry subcloud layer should mitigate the tornado
threat.

&&

 

GSP:

Low amplitude troughing will remain overhead with embedded
shortwaves tracking across the fcst area throughout much of the near
term fcst period leading to the potential for shower and
thunderstorm development. The majority of CAM guidance shows showers
and thunderstorms on tap this afternoon into early this evening.
However, forecast confidence will be low regarding convection as
high-res guidance is not in agreement regarding where storms will
initiate or the amount of coverage we will see. The HRRR has us dry
the last several runs while the NAMnest shows scattered convection
developing across the central NC mtns mid to late afternoon, pushing
east into portions of the NC Piedmont late afternoon into early
evening. The NAMnest keeps convection mainly across western NC and
along the NC/SC border with most of the SC Upstate and NE GA
remaining dry. The FV3, NSSL, and ARW are the most bullish with
shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon into this evening
and show showers and thunderstorms initiating early afternoon across
the NC mtns and pushing east while increasing in coverage across
much of the CWA, with the exception of NE GA and the far western SC
Upstate. With so much spread in the CAM guidance, have capped PoPs
to chance across western NC and the NW SC Upstate with slight chance
across NE GA and the SW SC Upstate. Shear values do not look overly
impressive this afternoon, ranging from 20-30 kts. However, SBCAPE
values range from roughly 1,500-2,500 J/kg this afternoon. So, with
storms potentially firing during peak daytime heating, despite lower-
end shear, decent instability could lead to scattered strong to
severe thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. SPC Day 1
Severe Weather Outlook currently has most of western NC and portions
of the SC Upstate in a slight risk with a marginal risk from NE GA
into the western SC Upstate. Main potential threats with any strong
to severe storms today are damaging winds gusts and large hail.
However, isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

RAH:

This along with dew points reaching the lower-60s
will support CAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. However, it is still very
unclear how much convection will be able to actually develop given
the lack of upper forcing and dry NW flow aloft, with weak height
rises if anything as a ridge starts to build off the Southeast US
coast. CAMS had been showing the best potential for convection in
the late evening and overnight hours as an MCV currently over OK/KS
potentially approaches, but there has been a significant shift north
with that system, with most models now showing it going through the
Ohio Valley and Northeast. Thus the convective threat may be more
conditional and largely dependent on either remnant outflow
boundaries from the aforementioned upstream convection, or a
Piedmont surface trough that will set up. Thus lowered POPs a bit
keeping them in the 25-40% range. Based on the latest CAMS, any
convection likely wouldn`t get going until late afternoon. Modest
mid-level flow will support 0-6 km shear of 25-35 kts, which isn`t
overly impressive, but could still support multicell clusters and
perhaps a supercell if anything is able to develop. Hail and
damaging winds would be the main hazards, as the flow looks fairly
unidirectional which would limit the tornado threat. Loss of daytime
heating should help diminish any convection overnight, with
decreasing clouds and mild lows in the mid-60s to near 70.

&&

[NorthHillsWx]

Pretty strongly worded warning with the storm that hit holly springs Clayton and garner 

[wncsnow]

Pretty big tornado hit Chesnee, SC earlier. 

[Jmoon]

18 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Pretty big tornado hit Chesnee, SC earlier. 

That's just right down the road from me down 221. About 15 mins or so depending on what part of Chesnee it hit. Weather was pretty tame up here at the time it hit but you could tell sky's looked bad to the south toward Chesnee Sc. Possible EF-2 is what I'm hearing as of now. 

[eyewall]

Yesterday (5/23) in Raleigh:
 

[NorthHillsWx]

22 hours ago, eyewall said:

Yesterday (5/23) in Raleigh:
 

Great pics! Was a good storm at my house. Nothing severe, but a lot of lightning and some 30-40 mph winds with some scattered branches down in the neighborhood 

[LakeNormanStormin]

Tornado warnings starting to light up in SC/NC.

Catawba, Cleveland, and Lincoln counties in NC.

[LakeNormanStormin]