General Severe Weather Discussion

[yoda]

 

[nwohweather]

Not a great setup but I wouldn't be shocked to see some severe reports around lunch time today as this moves east

[gtg947h]

It's not often that we see hail as the primary severe threat down this way...

[GaWx]

8 hours ago, gtg947h said:

It's not often that we see hail as the primary severe threat down this way...

There were several small hail reports in the area around midday.

[NorthHillsWx]

Looks like a couple dangerous days in the Deep South tomorrow and Wednesday 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Visiting from Texas thread, HREF looks sort of bad here from I-35 from Austin to DFW area and E (along and N of a WSW to ENE line from AUS to CLL), but the 5 pm STP>3 with updraft helicities for Louisiana and Mississippi looks quite bad.  High Risk tomorrow?

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

20 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Visiting from Texas thread, HREF looks sort of bad here from I-35 from Austin to DFW area and E (along and N of a WSW to ENE line from AUS to CLL), but the 5 pm STP>3 with updraft helicities for Louisiana and Mississippi looks quite bad.  High Risk tomorrow?

SPC 0Z HREFS still look bad by early afternoon LA/MS  % STP >3 with updraft helicity overlay >75 m^2/s^2 overlay

[NorthHillsWx]

29 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

SPC 0Z HREFS still look bad by early afternoon LA/MS  % STP >3 with updraft helicity overlay >75 m^2/s^2 overlay

Looks like the storm mode will be linear instead of discrete cells but obviously the parameters are there for some significant tornadoes. Hopefully the numbers are down but I fear we will see a few long track violent storms today. 

[nrgjeff]

Showers percolating in southeast Mississippi are on and south of the Gulf Coast front lifting north, out ahead of the main surface trough and line of storms. Cells could be of interest. Gulf front will continue to lift north into east-central Miss. 

HRRR is keying in on those southeast Miss cells 15Z run. 12Z NAM missed them. 12Z FV3 was meh small cells. However one of the 12Z ARWs (NSSL research) hinted at the cells becoming rooted southeast Miss. Then going into Bama like the FV3. One could say the ARW is with HRRR (her).

PS. I'm sorry I missed the thread for today. However I'll keep this here to follow the HREFs charts above.

Satellite as of 12:30 Central shows vertical development, and turning with height as the baby anvils shear properly. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like some gravity waves evident in east Mississippi ahead of the line? Might be an indication the atmosphere is primed for a decent tornadic event. Also surprised at the lack of posts for a D1 MOD. Is this not a popular subforum?

[olafminesaw]

13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like some gravity waves evident in east Mississippi ahead of the line? Might be an indication the atmosphere is primed for a decent tornadic event. Also surprised at the lack of posts for a D1 MOD. Is this not a popular subforum?

More discussion on the Central/Western Sub-forum. It's kinda awkwardly  between subs, especially with not many posters in AL/MS

[eyewall]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like some gravity waves evident in east Mississippi ahead of the line? Might be an indication the atmosphere is primed for a decent tornadic event. Also surprised at the lack of posts for a D1 MOD. Is this not a popular subforum?

Most of the subforum are not where the MDT is and farther east. Others joined another crappy board called SouthernWX.

[Witness Protection Program]

Might be better to move MS & AL to the Tennessee Valley section.  This Southeast board has never given a flying flip about tornadoes in AL and MS.  

[nwohweather]

20 hours ago, eyewall said:

Most of the subforum are not where the MDT is and farther east. Others joined another crappy board called SouthernWX.

Well that's a shame. Today has potential but that MCS is probably going to cut off some of the moisture flow into the region

[Brick Tamland]

Lots of hype from the local mets today about the potential for severe storms and it's been a dud.

[BooneWX]

1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said:

Lots of hype from the local mets today about the potential for severe storms and it's been a dud.

Speak for yourself! We’re under our 4th warning of the evening in Burke.

[mclean02]

1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said:

Lots of hype from the local mets today about the potential for severe storms and it's been a dud.

Dont think so not sure why these storms are going at this time. I thought it was going to be over by now 

[Witness Protection Program]

4 simultaneous tor warns along the foothills/mountains.  Not something you see every day....

[eyewall]

I went after the tornado warned storm south of Raleigh this morning. I got a look at the meso at it was dying out and then the notch in the line behind it. The line actually offered somewhat better shots.
 

[GoAPPS]

 

[eyewall]

19 hours ago, GoAPPS said:

 

I am pretty sure the experience of having to work at a fast food joint will harm him more than the tornado did.

[Iceresistance]

Going to start a Severe Weather forum because the SPC has put out a Slight Risk of Severe Storms for North Carolina & Virginia on D6

[yotaman]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

Going to start a Severe Weather forum because the SPC has put out a Slight Risk of Severe Storms for North Carolina & Virginia on D6

Why? There is already a severe weather thread. Don't need one for a "slight" risk.

[Iceresistance]

28 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Why? There is already a severe weather thread. Don't need one for a "slight" risk.

This one is unique, it's not common to have a D6 Slight Risk, let alone the Mid-Atlantic.

[NorthernUpstateSC]

On 3/23/2022 at 9:03 PM, Brick Tamland said:

Lots of hype from the local mets today about the potential for severe storms and it's been a dud.

 Dud??  Here in Pickens county sc had 2 tornadoes less then 2 miles from our house. Pretty dam scary when the power goes out and it's pitch black then your phone screams tornado warning.  I'll make sure to send the next dud system your way and see how you like it.

[Jessy89]

 Dud??  Here in Pickens county sc had 2 tornadoes less then 2 miles from our house. Pretty dam scary when the power goes out and it's pitch black then your phone screams tornado warning.  I'll make sure to send the next dud system your way and see how you like it.

5 miles from my house. Sad thing is storm was never warned I actually posted about it on Facebook group. 20 minutes before the Tornado touched down.


.

[yoda]

Uh oh

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0434 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022

   Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

   CORRECTED FOR WORDING

   ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED...

   ...DISCUSSION...
   An appreciable severe-weather risk appears increasingly likely
   across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Middle Gulf Coast region on
   Wednesday/Day 4. This includes the potential for widespread damaging
   winds and tornadoes, including the possibility of a regional tornado
   outbreak including strong (EF2+) tornadoes.

   On Wednesday, an increasingly moist air mass is expected across the
   region ahead of an upper-level trough that will take on an
   increasingly negative tilt, with very strong deep-layer/low-level
   winds coincident with a modestly unstable air mass. The potential
   for extensive early day precipitation/cloud cover ahead of the cold
   front casts some uncertainty in terms of destabilization details,
   particularly with northward extent into the Tennessee and Ohio River
   Valleys. Regardless, the extremely strong wind fields are concerning
   for the potential for long-lived supercells/fast-moving bowing
   segments where modest destabilization does occur. The
   most-concerning severe-favorable ingredients currently appear most
   probable across sizable portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and
   Alabama. 

[Iceresistance]

3 hours ago, yoda said:

Uh oh

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0434 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022

   Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

   CORRECTED FOR WORDING

   ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED...

   ...DISCUSSION...
   An appreciable severe-weather risk appears increasingly likely
   across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Middle Gulf Coast region on
   Wednesday/Day 4. This includes the potential for widespread damaging
   winds and tornadoes, including the possibility of a regional tornado
   outbreak including strong (EF2+) tornadoes.

   On Wednesday, an increasingly moist air mass is expected across the
   region ahead of an upper-level trough that will take on an
   increasingly negative tilt, with very strong deep-layer/low-level
   winds coincident with a modestly unstable air mass. The potential
   for extensive early day precipitation/cloud cover ahead of the cold
   front casts some uncertainty in terms of destabilization details,
   particularly with northward extent into the Tennessee and Ohio River
   Valleys. Regardless, the extremely strong wind fields are concerning
   for the potential for long-lived supercells/fast-moving bowing
   segments where modest destabilization does occur. The
   most-concerning severe-favorable ingredients currently appear most
   probable across sizable portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and
   Alabama. 

Very strong wording from the SPC

[nwohweather]

On 3/27/2022 at 5:56 AM, yoda said:

Uh oh

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0434 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022

   Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

   CORRECTED FOR WORDING

   ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED...

   ...DISCUSSION...
   An appreciable severe-weather risk appears increasingly likely
   across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Middle Gulf Coast region on
   Wednesday/Day 4. This includes the potential for widespread damaging
   winds and tornadoes, including the possibility of a regional tornado
   outbreak including strong (EF2+) tornadoes.

   On Wednesday, an increasingly moist air mass is expected across the
   region ahead of an upper-level trough that will take on an
   increasingly negative tilt, with very strong deep-layer/low-level
   winds coincident with a modestly unstable air mass. The potential
   for extensive early day precipitation/cloud cover ahead of the cold
   front casts some uncertainty in terms of destabilization details,
   particularly with northward extent into the Tennessee and Ohio River
   Valleys. Regardless, the extremely strong wind fields are concerning
   for the potential for long-lived supercells/fast-moving bowing
   segments where modest destabilization does occur. The
   most-concerning severe-favorable ingredients currently appear most
   probable across sizable portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and
   Alabama. 

Whoa, that is very strong language. The upper level divergence is damn near perfect

[NorthernUpstateSC]

On 3/26/2022 at 7:16 PM, Jessy89 said:

5 miles from my house. Sad thing is storm was never warned I actually posted about it on Facebook group. 20 minutes before the Tornado touched down.


.

I know our power went out and came to find out the tornado that was warned 20 mins later is what caused the power to go out to begin with. We had no idea that was that close and happening. While I was on the phone with Blue ridge to report the outage our phones went off. It was pitch black had my daughter and young grandson here with me and this was very surreal. Never want to go through that again!