A-L-E-K Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 ^Geos bullseye lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 McHenryrainSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 41 minutes ago, kevlon62 said: To the extreme . . . Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Finally in the bullseye 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 Unfortunately the Drought Monitor archive is down, but I don't recall that northeastern corner of IL being in D3 even in 2012. There was more drought north and south of there if I'm remembering correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 2 hours ago, Cary67 said: Finally in the bullseye It's Rittenhouse's Sphere of Influence. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 1.33" this morning ought to keep up from moving to D3 next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormheartgypsy Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 Just curious if this drought has to do w/ (possibly) climate change and or the ENSO has moved from what I've read to a neutral (La Nina seems to be over - for now)... Would love some rain here in the MidWest (skip hop away from St Louis)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 3 hours ago, Stormheartgypsy said: Just curious if this drought has to do w/ (possibly) climate change and or the ENSO has moved from what I've read to a neutral (La Nina seems to be over - for now)... Would love some rain here in the MidWest (skip hop away from St Louis)... Nina years tend to have a higher chance for summer drought but this isn't always a given. As far as climate change goes, the trend has been for (so far) has been for relatively rapid increases in rainfall and absolute humidity (dewpoint) in the STL area but relatively modest increases in temperature. There's some evidence to strongly suggest this is due to the rapid increase in corn planting area and density, which transpires rapidly and has served to keep temperature increases somewhat muted at the expense of increasing humidity. Since corn and crop land area has reached near its maximum nowadays, I would expect temperature increases to start taking over. If that's the case, the future may include a bit more rainfall on average, but with ever bigger swings between wet and dry. Increasing whiplash or flickering, if you will. Drought sets in and ends quicker, rainfall tends to come in bigger bursts and less towards gentle, soaking rains. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormheartgypsy Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 1 minute ago, csnavywx said: Nina years tend to have a higher chance for summer drought but this isn't always a given. As far as climate change goes, the trend has been for (so far) has been for relatively rapid increases in rainfall and absolute humidity (dewpoint) in the STL area but relatively modest increases in temperature. There's some evidence to strongly suggest this is due to the rapid increase in corn planting area and density, which transpires rapidly and has served to keep temperature increases somewhat muted at the expense of increasing humidity. Since corn and crop land area has reached near its maximum nowadays, I would expect temperature increases to start taking over. If that's the case, the future may include a bit more rainfall on average, but with ever bigger swings between wet and dry. Increasing whiplash or flickering, if you will. Drought sets in and ends quicker, rainfall tends to come in bigger bursts and less towards gentle, soaking rains. Good to know and thanks for the info. Is the ENSO being a neutral position playing into the "fun" weather? Or it strictly how the jet streams wobbles so far north and south and the moisture pumped in the from Gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Stormheartgypsy said: Good to know and thanks for the info. Is the ENSO being a neutral position playing into the "fun" weather? Or it strictly how the jet streams wobbles so far north and south and the moisture pumped in the from Gulf? There tends to be a delay of several months between when an ENSO phase begins and ends and the atmosphere responds. It lags by 2-4 months or so. So, we're still probably feeling some of the effects of the faded Nina. The current drought episode in the West is probably being exacerbated by it (by helping shift the jet north and imparting extra subsidence). Sometimes those effects "spill over" downstream into the Plains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormheartgypsy Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 Good to know and what you said about the drought makes perfect sense. Thanks for the info! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 GFS has a tropical remnant in 15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Sad Gotta try a different method. After whatever falls tonight, it looks mostly dry until later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 Your boy has the lowest amount of rain in Indiana this month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 34 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Your boy has the lowest amount of rain in Indiana this month. Here in the N IL donut too. Hoping we get some dumping rains tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Here in the N IL donut too. Hoping we get some dumping rains tonight Receiving good rains now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Receiving good rains now Already received more tonight than my MTD total, which kind of insane. Looks like another good dumping is forthcoming, should push us well over an inch. Will probably be able to watch the corn grow tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 1.72" of much needed rain so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 3 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said: 1.72" of much needed rain so far. 1.85" fell at ORD. That's good. What's not as good is that about 1.8" of it came in 50 minutes. You'd rather have it more drawn out than that. Ended up less than 1" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 About 1.90" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 .70 with the multiple waves here yesterday. Still need another 2” of so to make up the deficit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 should see another round of quality relief this week, euro looking solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: should see another round of quality relief this week, euro looking solid I hope it can come a little farther north next time. Stratiform fringe stuff helps some, but the real downpours keep missing south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: The science apparently hasn't advanced much in the past 50 years... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 49 minutes ago, frostfern said: I hope it can come a little farther north next time. Stratiform fringe stuff helps some, but the real downpours keep missing south. Tis the season for being a slave to convection. The more stratiform type of stuff can actually be quite beneficial as long as it's more than a piddly amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Tis the season for being a slave to convection. The more stratiform type of stuff can actually be quite beneficial as long as it's more than a piddly amount. Yes. It was beneficial rain, just not a drought buster. It's annoying when you just miss the 2"+ totals twice. Kalamazoo is actually soggy now and doesn't need any more rain in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 This would be great for the drought corridor from Iowa to Michigan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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