2021 Drought Thread

[Cary67]

6 hours ago, Baum said:

this comes to mind:

https://worldhistoryproject.org/1987/8/13/the-chicago-flood-of-1987

I tried picking up a friend from O'Hare that day to go back to school in Champaign. Not a good idea

[janetjanet998]

Chicago Metro once again has it's precip shields up 

with respectable amounts southwest 

and heavy rains of 1-3 inches downstate 

models say this should continue

about 1/3 of an inch here so far but more south

[A-L-E-K]

hard to imagine we stay total dry given the moisture plume off the gulf into the ms river valley & once the heat hits pop ups should return

 

cautiously optimistic we break this before it gets brown here

[StormfanaticInd]

I really don't see drought conditions being a concern anytime soon

[CheeselandSkies]

40 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

hard to imagine we stay total dry given the moisture plume off the gulf into the ms river valley & once the heat hits pop ups should return

 

cautiously optimistic we break this before it gets brown here

Yes, we finally get the moisture up here. Only problem is, it's May; where's the ****ing 500mb shear?

@andyhb posted back in Feb that the long range climate models were showing something like this happening. I wanted to believe that they couldn't possibly be right at that range. Welp.

[Hoosier]

From 3/1 to 5/16, ORD has had 2.32".  Average during that time is 8.57".  For the year, the total is 5.52" compared to an average of 12.53".  Shows how things took off after 3/1.  Will take a while to climb out of that hole or even get close.  The cool wx has helped things from drying out as quickly as they could have, but not going to be staying cool.

[A-L-E-K]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

From 3/1 to 5/16, ORD has had 2.32".  Average during that time is 8.57".  For the year, the total is 5.52" compared to an average of 12.53".  Shows how things took off after 3/1.  Will take a while to climb out of that hole or even get close.  The cool wx has helped things from drying out as quickly as they could have, but not going to be staying cool.

gonna take a well placed training MCS or late summer tropical remnants to get out of this hole

[frostfern]

4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

hard to imagine we stay total dry given the moisture plume off the gulf into the ms river valley & once the heat hits pop ups should return

 

cautiously optimistic we break this before it gets brown here

Tuesday is the only real shot of rain for Michigan with an elevated warm front, then the death ridge builds.    I will get lake shadowed to hell with a ridge SE of me.  Energy coming out SW-US trough misses NW, typical trend.  I fear things will go brown here even before the leaves are totally full.  NWS is underdoing high temps too.  It think it will hit at least the upper 80s over the weekend before the front finally sags in from the north around Memorial Day.

[frostfern]

3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Yes, we finally get the moisture up here. Only problem is, it's May; where's the ****ing 500mb shear?

@andyhb posted back in Feb that the long range climate models were showing something like this happening. I wanted to believe that they couldn't possibly be right at that range. Welp.

High latitude blocking would help at this time of year.  Need some zonal flow for once.

[frostfern]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

gonna take a well placed training MCS or late summer tropical remnants to get out of this hole

Well, in recent years there have been tropical remnants in early June.  2018 and 2020.  I think the 2018 remnants was actually very late May.  

[A-L-E-K]

euro is bad

[frostfern]

I'm hoping an MCS can ride in when the front finally sags down on Sunday or Monday.  June is never a good month for Michigan drought-recovery-wise.  LLJ and convection almost always stuck west.

[janetjanet998]

at least the Lakes are dropping

Water levels drop in Great Lakes after record-breaking highs in 2020, years of steady increases

 

New data from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Detroit office show that all of the lakes have lower levels, with Lake Michigan and Lake Huron showing a drop of 14 inches from the same time last year, while Lake Superior is down about six inches. Lake Ontario experienced the largest drop of 28 inches, while Lake Erie fell 17 inches.

But those numbers don't mean that things have returned to normal, said Deanna Apps, a physical scientist with the Corps. Lake Michigan is still 22 inches above its average level, while Lake Superior is eight inches above average. 

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/local/wisconsin/2021/05/17/great-lakes-water-levels-drop-after-record-breaking-highs-2020/5061171001/

 

[A-L-E-K]

It's very noticeable already 

[Chicago WX]

I remember when the concern was the water levels on the Lakes were too low. Wasn't that long ago really...

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, Chicago WX said:

I remember when the concern was the water levels on the Lakes were too low. Wasn't that long ago really...

Early 2010s, the water has gone up like almost 4' since then but is down about 6-10" from peak.

[Winter Man]

Grateful for the rain here. Some of the drier areas in the N, NW burbs cashed in on the heavier amounts too.

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, janetjanet998 said:

at least the Lakes are dropping

Water levels drop in Great Lakes after record-breaking highs in 2020, years of steady increases

 

New data from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Detroit office show that all of the lakes have lower levels, with Lake Michigan and Lake Huron showing a drop of 14 inches from the same time last year, while Lake Superior is down about six inches. Lake Ontario experienced the largest drop of 28 inches, while Lake Erie fell 17 inches.

But those numbers don't mean that things have returned to normal, said Deanna Apps, a physical scientist with the Corps. Lake Michigan is still 22 inches above its average level, while Lake Superior is eight inches above average. 

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/local/wisconsin/2021/05/17/great-lakes-water-levels-drop-after-record-breaking-highs-2020/5061171001/

 

The very end is an example of how any weather related articles about any weather phenomena has to throw some climate change blurb in there whether it makes sense or not.

"The drop in water levels could be because of the world's changing climate and the resulting change in temperatures and precipitation. The amount of evaporation taking place on the lakes has changed, while precipitation has, too. 

"It's kind of puzzling to folks, and maybe an indication that there's climate change influencing this," Bechle said."

 

Never mind the fact that Lake levels always rise and fall, a cycle that's been around as long as any records exist. But the article is literally discussing how Lake levels are finally dropping from their record highs last year, and are still way above normal...so maybe this drop is the fault of climate change lol. 

 

For a year now every time there's an east wind we have lakeshore flood warnings and advisories, and over the Winter ice floes were causing a lot of flooding in areas on the East Side of Michigan. A drop in Lake levels is definitely needed, though I am certainly hoping we don't head into a big drought.

[A-L-E-K]

next real shot of rain 7 days out and it's not a particularly hot prospect as is 

[CheeselandSkies]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

next real shot of rain 7 days out and it's not a particularly hot prospect as is 

For MBY (2~ish hours from you) MKX has chances through Friday, then again from Sunday through the end of the 7-day. Although it rained decently from yesterday afternoon through this morning, we have yet to see a real, sustained downpour here in 2021, and I haven't even heard thunder yet this year. Wouldn't have seen lightning either if not for some distant, isolated thunderstorms that were going while I was driving in to work one night the first week of April.

[hlcater]

It’s been pretty wet here over the past week, and unlike places further east, it appears that should continue to be the case over the next 7 days as well.

 

[Chicago Storm]

Speaking of droughts at ORD... Still have not officially had a TS since last November.

Bump.

About to roll into late May, and ORD still has yet to have a TS since mid-November of last year.


.

[Hoosier]

59 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Bump.

About to roll into late May, and ORD still has yet to have a TS since mid-November of last year.


.

Unreal.  And not like it's been cool all Spring... since April 1, ORD has had 17 days AOA 70 with 5 days AOA 80.  How do you not fumble into a TS on one of those days, or even on one of the days that was cooler.

[Kitchener poster]

It’s bone dry here. Visible symptoms of drought are just now being expressed as warmer temperatures moved into the area. 
 

I can’t remember the last 0.25” rain. 

[frostfern]

1 hour ago, Kitchener poster said:

It’s bone dry here. Visible symptoms of drought are just now being expressed as warmer temperatures moved into the area. 
 

I can’t remember the last 0.25” rain. 

Not good here either.  There were some showers today, but they barely wet the pavement.  Everything more significant missed to the west.  It's at least muggy... and weeds/underbrush in the spring greenup stage... so no fire danger ATM.

[frostfern]

3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Bump.

About to roll into late May, and ORD still has yet to have a TS since mid-November of last year.


.

There were two very brief ones here in April, one with some small hail and another with a random unwarned F0 tornado/landspout.  Nothing so far in May though.  May was quiet last year too... but we at least had a couple stratiform precip events with the occasional flash/rumble thrown in.

[Chicago Storm]

.

[A-L-E-K]

hate it

[michsnowfreak]

Who would have thought the same region with 1-2 feet of snow on the ground 3 months ago would be talking legit drought.

 

I picked a bad year to plant some new grass seed in a few spots (patch work). I am ALREADY sick of watering the lawn and no end in sight.

[Hoosier]

Wider view

None of the D2 in IL/MI/extreme southeast WI was there last week.