Geoboy645 Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 I figure we are at the point where a drought thread could be useful. Most of the forum has had a very dry last 2.5 months and drought is really starting to spread over much of the region. For instance, Madison has only had .01 inch and a few traces of rain since April 11th. If we do not get a wet week out of this upcoming pattern here we are going to be in serious trouble for this summer. 1915, 1934, 1958, 1976, and 1989 are all years that have had similarly dry springs and with the exception of 1915 all ended up well below average for precipitation. We will see how this plays out, but right now it is looking to be a drought filled summer for the Midwest. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 Only rained imby once since April 11. Need some rain and need it quickly before things start going off the rails in terms of drought 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 Certainly been a dry run. Not sure how it's going to play out. It's possible that it reverses itself soon and it ends up not being a big deal, but longer term predictability with these things isn't always the greatest. Looking back on 2012 (which I am not saying we are heading to something like that), we had the obnoxiously warm March but I don't think anybody really thought such an intense drought was going to follow that summer. It developed quickly and ended up being a once or twice in a lifetime type of drought for some areas. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 Dust blowing around like Oklahoma in the 1930s out there today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 it's here, would probably look so much worse if we hadn't had a long slow steady early spring snow melt or two just took a day of sun with warm temps and wind to really get things crackin' i actually watered the courtyard garden yesterday which i can never remember having to do this early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 1-3 inches just south of I-80 ENE into Will county this week helped that area 3 inches at PIA airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 Through 5/2, ORD has gone 124 consecutive days without a calendar day precip of 0.50" or greater. This is the 5th longest streak on record for Chicago. If the streak can make it through today, which looks like a possibility, then it would become a virtual lock to get into 3rd place given the upcoming forecast. The top streak is really in a league of its own. #of days, ending date 253, 4/16/1963 173, 3/27/1977 127, 2/10/1956 126, 2/6/1881 124, 5/2/2021 (still ongoing) 122, 6/19/1887 116, 3/10/1927 112, 3/20/1992 107, 2/25/1899 106, 2/20/1913 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 Precip is on an overall weakening trend and ORD will come in well under 1/2". So today will be day 125 since the last calendar day 0.50"+. Even if you go by 2 day precip amounts, the last 0.50"+ event was 1/30-1/31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Precip is on an overall weakening trend and ORD will come in well under 1/2". So today will be day 125 since the last calendar day 0.50"+. Even if you go by 2 day precip amounts, the last 0.50"+ event was 1/30-1/31. Speaking of droughts at ORD... Still have not officially had a TS since last November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Speaking of droughts at ORD... Still have not officially had a TS since last November. That's crazy. I do remember having a day or two with thunder imby this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: Through 5/2, ORD has gone 124 consecutive days without a calendar day precip of 0.50" or greater. This is the 5th longest streak on record for Chicago. If the streak can make it through today, which looks like a possibility, then it would become a virtual lock to get into 3rd place given the upcoming forecast. The top streak is really in a league of its own. #of days, ending date 253, 4/16/1963 173, 3/27/1977 127, 2/10/1956 126, 2/6/1881 124, 5/2/2021 (still ongoing) 122, 6/19/1887 116, 3/10/1927 112, 3/20/1992 107, 2/25/1899 106, 2/20/1913 Looking at this more closely, almost all of these were more of a fall/winter thing. Impressive to keep it going this long in Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 Yesterday didn't cut it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 8 hours ago, Hoosier said: Looking at this more closely, almost all of these were more of a fall/winter thing. Impressive to keep it going this long in Spring. That’s what I noticed. The current streak and the 1887 one are the only ones that have survived April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 The good news for this month vs what happened in 2012 is it'll be cool for the next week and pattern overall is forecast to be on the active side into the medium-long range. If this month doesn't come in at or above normal and the ridge starts to build in June, that would become more problematic. The rain we've gotten here in the southwest suburbs over the past week, while not a lot, has helped keep things pretty green. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 8 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Yesterday didn't cut it A whopping 0.07" at ORD yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: A whopping 0.07" at ORD yesterday. haha please take some from the eastern Great Lakes. Two weeks straight now of snow/rain. I haven't seen a fully dry days in about 15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 6, 2021 Share Posted May 6, 2021 gfs with the best heavy rain look in a while for metro this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 6, 2021 Share Posted May 6, 2021 18 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: gfs with the best heavy rain look in a while for metro this weekend Euro has been relatively steady with holding the better rains south. We shall see what the 12z run does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 6, 2021 Share Posted May 6, 2021 New map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 6, 2021 Share Posted May 6, 2021 Today will be 128 days since the last 0.50"+ calendar day rainfall at ORD, thus making it the 3rd longest streak without one. This streak would have to go through June 20 to get to 2nd place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 9 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: gfs with the best heavy rain look in a while for metro this weekend dangerous game betting on the GFS these days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted May 10, 2021 Share Posted May 10, 2021 On 5/6/2021 at 9:33 PM, Stebo said: dangerous game betting on the GFS these days. You called that one right. Northern extent of precip. shown on GFS and NAM didn't materialize. Euro,CMC, and Ukie much better with this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 10, 2021 Share Posted May 10, 2021 You called that one right. Northern extent of precip. shown on GFS and NAM didn't materialize. Euro,CMC, and Ukie much better with this systemEuro was well south at the start, so really neither did well in the end. NAM was bad with handling the snow potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 10, 2021 Share Posted May 10, 2021 Last 14 days precip... 2-2.5 inches fell over the weekend I-80 area in NE IL so may put a dent in the drought map this week there https://water.weather.gov/precip/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 Less D0 and D1 overall compared to last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 In the suck zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 16, 2021 Share Posted May 16, 2021 From March 1 through May 15, it is the 2nd driest meteorological Spring for Chicago... 1887: 1.60" 2021: 2.32" 1958: 2.47" 1934: 2.55" 1989: 3.42" 1994: 3.56" 2005: 3.62" 1986: 3.78" 1895: 3.93" 1886: 4.02" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted May 16, 2021 Share Posted May 16, 2021 Major drought setting up in lower Michigan. We avoid any real rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted May 16, 2021 Share Posted May 16, 2021 21 minutes ago, dmc76 said: Major drought setting up in lower Michigan. We avoid any real rains. Sometimes Augusts bring heavy rains to our area. I seem to remember some of our biggest floods occurring that month.Or hope you set up under a ring of fire pattern but this is setting up like a long watering season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted May 16, 2021 Share Posted May 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Cary67 said: Sometimes Augusts bring heavy rains to our area. I seem to remember some of our biggest floods occurring that month.Or hope you set up under a ring of fire pattern but this is setting up like a long watering season this comes to mind: https://worldhistoryproject.org/1987/8/13/the-chicago-flood-of-1987 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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