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May Discobs 2021


George BM
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1 minute ago, vastateofmind said:

I'll trade today for a mostly nice weekend...which is now looking somewhat improved for Sunday/Monday at least.

Half the weekend.  Friday/Sat looking damp and temps still gonna be super cool for this time of year.  Not great for pool or beach.

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2 hours ago, mappy said:

ugh another cloudy gray day ahead? 

Visible satellite shows this is mostly low level stuff. I don't see a lot of mid or high level clouds to prevent us scouring this out after lunch. Probably going to be a very nice mid to late afternoon.

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Visible satellite shows this is mostly low level stuff. I don't see a lot of mid or high level clouds to prevent us scouring this out after lunch. Probably going to be a very nice mid to late afternoon.

LWX says maybe not in updated morning AFD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1021 AM EDT Tue May 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will remain stationary along the Appalachians today. A
warm front will lift through the area Wednesday followed by a
cold frontal passage Thursday. This front eventually stalls
south of the region into the holiday weekend keeping conditions
unsettled.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Solid low overcast this morning beneath a strong inversion as
sampled by 12Z IAD sounding. Believe models are too fast in
eroding low cloud deck east of the Blue Ridge and we`re not
likely to see any significant breaks until 21Z or so. West of
the Blue Ridge should see enough breaks for sct shower/t-storm
development. Temperatures should hit mid 70s west of I-95, but
likely remain below 75F closer to the Chesapeake Bay.

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Rain totals may need to be increased if current trends continue for Friday through Saturday morning. 

Nice update by Mount Holly.

 

A low pressure system will finally bring the area some much needed
rainfall for Friday into Friday night as it tracks eastward from
Indiana towards Virginia and then off the coast. The system has
trended a bit slower so it should be dry to start the day Friday but
with clouds thickening up and rain arriving around the midday /
early afternoon timeframe from west to east. The heaviest rain looks
to fall late day Friday into Friday night as there will be good
isentropic lift, fairly strong F-Gen forcing through the mid levels
and right jet entrance dynamics at play in the upper levels. Also,
fairly high PWATs around 1.25 to 1.5+ inches will be advecting
north. The upshot of all this is that rain amounts look to be
trending upward a bit. Generally expect most areas to get around an
inch of rain for Friday through Friday night with some areas
potentially seeing upwards of around an inch and a half or so.
However given the stratiform nature of the rain along with the
recent dry weather this should not be enough to cause any hydro
issues. Friday will be cool with the rain moving in and generally
expect highs in the 60s to low 70s. The cool temps and the rain will
also be accompanied by brisk E/NE winds.

 

 

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definitely encouraged about getting meaningful rain at the end of the week, although I'd prefer to not wash out the entire weekend.     The Euro is really slow to move everything out and would make for a pretty wet and ugly Sunday.    The GFS has been more progressive, but the GEFS is clearly trending towards a wetter Sunday.     Slow movement of the trough is key to a big rainfall event, as the totals for Friday night across most guidance aren't huge due to the better overrunning likely setting up to our north.

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