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May Discobs 2021


George BM
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This is a belated yesterday ob, but I was driving south on 95 right at this time and had a great view of some of these beauties. I know how dramatic weather is more popular but I :wub: stuff like this.

showers.png.ffaabc9e3130407e04855d2b7f651cd2.png

This afternoon has been increasingly brooding skies and occasional gustiness from the activity to the west, but no precip.

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14 hours ago, CAPE said:

Maybe some rain chances this weekend/early the following week as the High shifts SW, and some energy can drop in from NE over the top. Looks dry until then, with increasing temps. Humidity should stay pretty low, but we are spoiled so it will feel plenty uncomfortable if we do reach the low 90s. CMC more bullish on the late week heat than the GFS.

 

Evolution of rainfall oppurtunities are a bit concerning. Less and less in new modeling. 

Meanwhile, really interested to see how the lack of storms along with warming air mass combined with day after day of high sun angle effects surf zone temps and how quickly they jump up. 

97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1621252085

 

 

 

CURRENT SURF REPORT FOR WILDWOOD
07:43:56 
Map of Wildwood
 
 
  • 2-3ft

4MPH LIGHT, CROSS/OFFSHORE 

  • Primary Swell
     
    2.5ft at 8s
     
  • Sunny Air 60°f Sea 57 °f

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4 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Looking forward to beautiful weather the next couple of days.  LWX hinted at a back door front possibility this weekend with the GFS/GGEM saying maybe...it would be great if we got upper 70s with that.  But the Euro says no, you bake.

Im ok with baking for this weekend..just want a beach day saturday! 70s would suffice I guess but the water is still cool if breeze off ocean so 80s would be better!

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46 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Don't mind the warmth after a pretty mild/cool spring, but could use some rain.

Sunny lawns in my nhood are drying out already! Of course, I'll probably be eating those words when we have a pattern flip in June or something and rains for 3 weeks straight

Agreed it’s getting little crunchy. 

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Guidance continues to suggest the High will shift westward this weekend, allowing for backdoor cold front/possible showers/t-showers with some energy rotating down from SE Canada.

Still looks pretty dry overall.

Mount Holly has backed off on the heat here for late week though. Highest temps now mid 80s.

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6 hours ago, CAPE said:

Guidance continues to suggest the High will shift westward this weekend, allowing for backdoor cold front/possible showers/t-showers with some energy rotating down from SE Canada.

Still looks pretty dry overall.

Mount Holly has backed off on the heat here for late week though. Highest temps now mid 80s.

Still about 20 degrees warmer than ideal. ;)

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10 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

SO this is it, last 'great' day and then the HHH start. I'll go walk in comfort for one last time until October......

This May has been scores better than last May. I've really appreciated the upper 40s much of this month during my early morning runs. 

Down to 46F again at IAD earlier. 

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1 hour ago, Baltimorewx said:

Looks like a spectacular day today...these are the days you dream for in May...

...days to hang with the pupper, soaking up the rays in the outdoor seating area at a (or several!) local brewery(ies). Sorry, your dream...I just started getting caught up in it.  :) 

BTW, currently 68 and a beautiful morning out there. Opened the windows for awhile to let in some fresh air, and to hear the occasional, light cicada song.

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2 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

...days to hang with the pupper, soaking up the rays in the outdoor seating area at a (or several!) local brewery(ies). Sorry, your dream...I just started getting caught up in it.  :) 

BTW, currently 68 and a beautiful morning out there. Opened the windows for awhile to let in some fresh air, and to hear the occasional, light cicada song.

Absolutely! Taking a break this week though (mainly monetary:lol:)...need to save for the money splurging at the beach this weekend!

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Ridge city disco from Mount Holly-

Looks like the ridge-city pattern will continue right through the medium range. However, the ridge appears to retreat far enough westward to allow for a series of weak vorticity maxima to dig southeastward through the Northeast this weekend. There are some benefits and drawbacks to this subtle shift in the pattern. The main benefit is that chances for precipitation will be higher as these weak vorticity maxima combine with diurnal heating to initiate some isolated/scattered convection. Models appear to be converging on timing these vorticity maxima favorably for our region Saturday and Sunday afternoon/evening, so I did increase/expand PoPs slightly for these periods in particular. However, the relatively weak large- scale lift and smaller-scale forcing mechanisms do not spell for widespread soaking precipitation. The main drawback is that low-level flow will veer to a more offshore direction, and this will allow for temperatures to increase during the weekend. Highs near 90 are probable, especially on Sunday. The second drawback is that high pressure will likely build in quickly behind the weekend systems. As the midlevel shortwave trough races southeast into the western Atlantic, the midlevel ridge to the west will progress right back toward our region. The result appears to be drier (and continued warm) conditions.

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15 hours ago, CAPE said:

Rain chances look scattered at best over the next week.

Sprinkler is going now. :sun::raining:

Really dry here,  at least there is some morning dew. But, soil moisture dropping fast, Lawns already starting to brown out. Rather early for that , even with this warmer climate. 

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83 here. Nice day.

Looking like it will be on the cooler side of what was possible over the next couple days here. Low 80s for highs and mid to upper 50s for lows.

Upper 80s still looking reasonable for the weekend. Would be nice to see a few showers, but still appears to be iffy and scattered at best.

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15 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Unfortunately, we are seeing air quality go the wrong way as more vehicles hit the road.  If you have Twitter, I recommend following Ryan as he's the regional expert on Air Quality:

https://twitter.com/ryans_wx

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