CAPE Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 As for rain chances, this shortwave dropping down late in the day Sat as the ridge retrogrades further SW looks to be the best chance. Both the FV3 hi res and NAM nest are hinting at some decent convection developing, mostly for the eastern third of the region. Low probability for now. Next chance would probably be Thursday of next week, although the GFS and ICON have some moisture for the higher terrain to the west and sw on Monday. Get ya sprinklers out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 ^ I guess I could have posted that in the Drought thread, which is becoming more active lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 87/60 Dewpoint has definitely increased thought the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 77/42 Fantastic. Felt a tad warmer/more humid earlier in the day, but that offshore low and the high wedging in from the NE has made today damn near perfect here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 First 90 at home. Air quality isn’t too bad. My PM2.5 got up to 77, which is still moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 Euro torches us next week...mid to upper 90s for just about everyone. Things going for it: it's been dry so things can heat up fast. Things going against it: the Euro seems to have a bias of late towards high temps beyond D6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 What was that? Sea breeze blowing through, east to west? Was a delightful refreshment, temp dropped about 5 degrees in 20 minutes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 11 minutes ago, GATECH said: What was that? Sea breeze blowing through, east to west? Was a delightful refreshment, temp dropped about 5 degrees in 20 minutes. Bay Breeze. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Bay Breeze. It’s delightful, after hitting 90, now 78! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 Its more than a bay breeze. Been coolish and breezy with low dews all afternoon here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 19 minutes ago, CAPE said: Its more than a bay breeze. Been coolish and breezy with low dews all afternoon here. Haven’t been paying attention for a while, because why, is this the back door cold front mentioned from earlier this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 20, 2021 Author Share Posted May 20, 2021 There's a little bit of smoke aloft in the air. Just enough to give the sun and sky that smoky look that you've noticed but haven't posted about because it isn't obvious enough , unlike last September. The gust front moving through from ESE to WNW could have wind gusts up to 25mph. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 25 minutes ago, GATECH said: Haven’t been paying attention for a while, because why, is this the back door cold front mentioned from earlier this week? Its due to that high building to the SW on the NW side of that Atlantic low. Characterizing it as a back door front seems reasonable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 Why was it 93 a few hours ago, but a nip in the air at sunset? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 It blew through Germantown at about 7 or 7:30 with some pretty big gusts and the temp dropped well down into the 70s. With the dry air it felt pretty cool. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 Beautiful out right now. Also I forgot to mention that I saw the first (and only, so far) lightning bug this week. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 48 this morning. Looks like one more day of low dews and pleasantly warm temps before the heat and humidity builds in for the weekend. Front looks generally dry for late Sunday, then a cool Monday, before another bout of heat after that. Still no widespread rain in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: 48 this morning. Looks like one more day of low dews and pleasantly warm temps before the heat and humidity builds in for the weekend. Front looks generally dry for late Sunday, then a cool Monday, before another bout of heat after that. Still no widespread rain in sight. Its august weather with cooler mornings for the time being Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 1 hour ago, CAPE said: 48 this morning. Looks like one more day of low dews and pleasantly warm temps before the heat and humidity builds in for the weekend. Front looks generally dry for late Sunday, then a cool Monday, before another bout of heat after that. Still no widespread rain in sight. Mid 90s next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 36 minutes ago, nj2va said: Mid 90s next week? At least low 90s for a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 Euro and several of the GFS members really pumping the heat during the middle of next week. Could endanger the record highs for IAD. From this morning's LWX AFD: Record highs and record warm lows late this week into early next week. DCA, BWI and MRB records are probably out of reach, but the IAD records could be matched. DateSite DCA BWI IAD MRB Fri 5/21 95 71 96 71 92 67 100 65 1934 1996 1934 1934 1996 2013 1934 1996 Sat 5/22 96 71 98 71 88 67 98 68 1941 1959 1941 1903 2004 1975 1934 1959 Sun 5/23 97 74 98 69 92 70 100 68 1925 2004 1925 2004 1964 2004 1925 2004 Mon 5/24 92 72 93 72 90 69 96 67 1964 2004 1933 2004 1964 2004 1941 2011 Tue 5/25 94 71 94 70 92 67 94 67 1880 2012 1991 1936 1991 2004 1933 1991 Wed 5/26 96 74 94 74 92 71 96 69 1880 1991 1914 1880 2007 2018 1914 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 12Z gfs goes for a washout Memorial Day weekend and almost 2” of rain. Been some guidance hints of things getting stormy around that period so worth watching. Of course that would rain out my sons baseball tournament, which isn’t ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: 12Z gfs goes for a washout Memorial Day weekend and almost 2” of rain. Been some guidance hints of things getting stormy around that period so worth watching. Of course that would rain out my sons baseball tournament, which isn’t ideal. GFS gets some convection in here late Wed, the only "hot" day, with some ul energy coming in from the west as the ridge flattens/moves out. Gets very active beyond that. Euro also looks more active towards next weekend, although not quite as wet as the GFS is suggesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 82 here. Very pleasant, although noticeably more humid than yesterday. DP is 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 1 hour ago, CAPE said: GFS gets some convection in here late Wed, the only "hot" day, with some ul energy coming in from the west as the ridge flattens/moves out. Gets very active beyond that. Euro also looks more active towards next weekend, although not quite as wet as the GFS is suggesting. Euro is broadly similar with two batches over Memorial weekend. One Friday into Saturday and one Monday. I’d like the rain and getting the baseball tournament in, which are probably mutually exclusive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 Hope WB 18Z EURO is right with the needed rains early next week. 18Z GFS says what rain…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 Euro HoCo bullseye! Won’t happen... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 Why was it 93 a few hours ago, but a nip in the air at sunset?Reminds me of out West. Love it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 1 hour ago, WeatherShak said: Reminds me of out West. Love it. Reminds me of our dismal soil moisture like out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 Been outside waxing the Jeep and planting some Petunias. Noticeably more humid than the last several days. 83 currently. Feels like MA summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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