Chip Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 Well after looking through models this morning I figured I better put this up. Good parameters for a decent event over a large area I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Posted April 30, 2021 Author Share Posted April 30, 2021 Most models show similar soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 Most models show similar soundings Where’s that T Skew from? Location?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 SPC has moved the 15% forward for a Slight Risk on Sunday. I like their use of pattern recognition. ECMWF is more bullish (ENH material). GFS is slop (Marginal verbatim). Sothern stream wave in early May certainly calls for Slight Risk. For those on the forum who get anxious about severe, I'm not at all worried about a big tornado day. Looks like straight wind mostly. However in early May we can't take a few tornadoes off the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Posted April 30, 2021 Author Share Posted April 30, 2021 47 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Where’s that T Skew from? Location? . Central TN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 NAM could be bullish like normal in this time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Posted April 30, 2021 Author Share Posted April 30, 2021 NAM.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Posted April 30, 2021 Author Share Posted April 30, 2021 Here is the new GFS sounding… A couple things I noticed is the critical angle is rather high and in the zone you look for strong tornadoes based on research. I also noticed the STP came up a little bit on this new run of GFS. Granted looking at all the small stuff is really pointless at this juncture (way too far out) however I will be curious to see how this trends going forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Posted April 30, 2021 Author Share Posted April 30, 2021 Good agreement up to 54 hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Posted May 1, 2021 Author Share Posted May 1, 2021 I understand that the NAM tends to be very bullish this far out however given the current trends I am actually kind of surprised that this hasn’t gotten a little bit more attention yet. I added the part about critical angle because I noticed that the majority of the soundings are around 90. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Posted May 1, 2021 Author Share Posted May 1, 2021 System evolution after 54 hours... looks interesting to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Posted May 1, 2021 Author Share Posted May 1, 2021 well the new GFS just came in… And uhhh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Posted May 1, 2021 Author Share Posted May 1, 2021 Here is its evolution in comparison. I will be interested to see how this looks in the morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Posted May 1, 2021 Author Share Posted May 1, 2021 Day 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Posted May 1, 2021 Author Share Posted May 1, 2021 New NAM run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 54 minutes ago, Chip said: New NAM run Hey Chip,when you post a sounding would you please post where the sounding is at,i noticed some people don't know where it's at,i know by the long and lat that is Middle Tn,but some folks that pop in won't have a clue,thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Posted May 1, 2021 Author Share Posted May 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Hey Chip,when you post a sounding would you please post where the sounding is at,i noticed some people don't know where it's at,i know by the long and lat that is Middle Tn,but some folks that pop in won't have a clue,thanks Yes absolutely!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Posted May 1, 2021 Author Share Posted May 1, 2021 STP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 8 minutes ago, Chip said: STP GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 12Z MAY01 * - APPROXIMATED SFC SFC BNDRY SFC BEST SFC BNDRY 3000M PWW CAPE CAPE LIX LIX CIN CIN HEL (IN) J/KG J/KG (C) (C) J/KG J/KG M2/S2 SAT 12Z 01-MAY 0.7 0 0 13 10 0 0 41 SAT 18Z 01-MAY 0.8 0 0 7 8 0 0 33 SUN 00Z 02-MAY 0.9 3 0 5 6 -22 0 18 SUN 06Z 02-MAY 1.3 0 0 7 6 0 0 35 SUN 12Z 02-MAY 1.5 0 0 8 4 0 0 145 SUN 18Z 02-MAY 1.6 1 22 5 2 0 -1 115 MON 00Z 03-MAY 1.5 2 64 2 0 -20 -19 253 MON 06Z 03-MAY 1.5 4 70 1 0 -81 -20 184 MON 12Z 03-MAY 1.4 441 1115 -2 -5 -161 -20 197 MON 18Z 03-MAY 1.3 1941 1852 -6 -6 -76 -85 244 TUE 00Z 04-MAY 1.3 3229 3206 -10 -10 -50 -52 273 TUE 06Z 04-MAY 1.6 2851 2918 -10 -10 -76 -61 144 TUE 12Z 04-MAY 1.2 138 138 -1 -2 -429 -411 28 TUE 18Z 04-MAY 1.4 1433 1171 -6 -5 -8 -20 143 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 Yes absolutely!!Also list what area. Don’t have to be specific, just give up the closest town to it. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 CAM on the GFS would be concerning with nocturnal storms while people are sleeping Monday evening into early morn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 New NAM runYikes..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: Yikes.... . Yeah, supercell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Posted May 1, 2021 Author Share Posted May 1, 2021 Check this out! You can see the super cells 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 Yeah, supercellHow much degree do you need? Seems like I remember 30° or something?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Posted May 1, 2021 Author Share Posted May 1, 2021 Just now, PowellVolz said: How much degree do you need? Seems like I remember 30° or something? . Need not sure..... I do know when you get near 90 that is optimal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 Just now, Chip said: Need not sure..... I do know when you get near 90 that is optimal. 90 is optimal like you said ,it can go lower or higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 9 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: How much degree do you need? Seems like I remember 30° or something? . Critical Angle The "critical angle" is the angle between the storm-relative wind at the surface and the 0-500 m AGL shear vector [(kt) displayed only for areas where the effective inflow base is the ground (SBCAPE 100 J kg-1 or greater, and less than 250 J kg-1 CIN]. A critical angle near 90 degrees infers streamwise vorticity near the ground, which favors stronger cyclonic rotation and dynamically forced ascent closer to the ground in a right-moving supercell (through the effects of tilting and stretching of horizontal vorticity). Critical angles in the range of 45 to 135 degrees suggest near-surface vorticity is more streamwise than crosswise, and values in this range are highlighted by the color fill. Large SRH colocated with a critical angle close to 90 degrees is most favorable for tornadic supercells. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 Euro is still slower with the front than the GFS ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z MAY01 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR 6 HR 6 HR 500 1000 TMP DEW CAPE QPF CVP NCP HGT 500 (C) (C) J/KG (IN) (IN) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 01-MAY 10.1 4.0 0 578 560 SAT 18Z 01-MAY 22.7 3.6 0 579 562 SUN 00Z 02-MAY 19.6 14.1 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 578 566 SUN 06Z 02-MAY 14.1 8.6 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 578 566 SUN 12Z 02-MAY 15.3 7.2 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 576 565 SUN 18Z 02-MAY 25.0 8.1 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 575 566 MON 00Z 03-MAY 19.7 13.4 0 0.01 0.00 0.01 572 566 MON 06Z 03-MAY 17.4 16.1 258 0.07 0.06 0.01 569 565 MON 12Z 03-MAY 18.3 17.8 303 0.22 0.14 0.08 569 565 MON 18Z 03-MAY 23.0 20.4 1914 0.34 0.29 0.05 573 568 TUE 00Z 04-MAY 23.2 20.2 1941 0.09 0.06 0.02 575 571 TUE 06Z 04-MAY 19.2 18.8 1487 0.31 0.25 0.06 577 569 TUE 12Z 04-MAY 18.3 17.9 1547 0.26 0.26 0.00 577 569 TUE 18Z 04-MAY 24.5 20.6 1286 0.38 0.33 0.06 577 571 WED 00Z 05-MAY 21.9 20.1 971 0.02 0.01 0.01 575 570 WED 06Z 05-MAY 19.2 19.0 640 0.85 0.69 0.16 572 567 WED 12Z 05-MAY 13.8 12.9 8 0.05 0.01 0.04 572 562 WED 18Z 05-MAY 18.3 10.3 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 573 560 THU 00Z 06-MAY 16.8 9.4 18 0.00 0.00 0.00 573 559 THU 06Z 06-MAY 10.8 8.0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 572 556 THU 12Z 06-MAY 10.1 6.4 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 571 554 THU 18Z 06-MAY 15.2 4.6 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 567 551 FRI 00Z 07-MAY 13.9 9.4 32 0.00 0.00 0.00 561 547 FRI 06Z 07-MAY 10.0 6.9 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 557 545 FRI 12Z 07-MAY 10.8 8.8 13 0.01 0.01 0.00 553 543 FRI 18Z 07-MAY 13.8 9.7 61 0.15 0.12 0.03 554 544 SAT 00Z 08-MAY 9.7 7.4 13 0.12 0.07 0.06 554 541 SAT 06Z 08-MAY 6.7 3.3 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 553 539 SAT 12Z 08-MAY 5.3 1.6 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 555 539 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Posted May 1, 2021 Author Share Posted May 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Euro is still slower with the front than the GFS ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z MAY01 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR 6 HR 6 HR 500 1000 TMP DEW CAPE QPF CVP NCP HGT 500 (C) (C) J/KG (IN) (IN) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 01-MAY 10.1 4.0 0 578 560 SAT 18Z 01-MAY 22.7 3.6 0 579 562 SUN 00Z 02-MAY 19.6 14.1 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 578 566 SUN 06Z 02-MAY 14.1 8.6 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 578 566 SUN 12Z 02-MAY 15.3 7.2 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 576 565 SUN 18Z 02-MAY 25.0 8.1 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 575 566 MON 00Z 03-MAY 19.7 13.4 0 0.01 0.00 0.01 572 566 MON 06Z 03-MAY 17.4 16.1 258 0.07 0.06 0.01 569 565 MON 12Z 03-MAY 18.3 17.8 303 0.22 0.14 0.08 569 565 MON 18Z 03-MAY 23.0 20.4 1914 0.34 0.29 0.05 573 568 TUE 00Z 04-MAY 23.2 20.2 1941 0.09 0.06 0.02 575 571 TUE 06Z 04-MAY 19.2 18.8 1487 0.31 0.25 0.06 577 569 TUE 12Z 04-MAY 18.3 17.9 1547 0.26 0.26 0.00 577 569 TUE 18Z 04-MAY 24.5 20.6 1286 0.38 0.33 0.06 577 571 WED 00Z 05-MAY 21.9 20.1 971 0.02 0.01 0.01 575 570 WED 06Z 05-MAY 19.2 19.0 640 0.85 0.69 0.16 572 567 WED 12Z 05-MAY 13.8 12.9 8 0.05 0.01 0.04 572 562 WED 18Z 05-MAY 18.3 10.3 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 573 560 THU 00Z 06-MAY 16.8 9.4 18 0.00 0.00 0.00 573 559 THU 06Z 06-MAY 10.8 8.0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 572 556 THU 12Z 06-MAY 10.1 6.4 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 571 554 THU 18Z 06-MAY 15.2 4.6 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 567 551 FRI 00Z 07-MAY 13.9 9.4 32 0.00 0.00 0.00 561 547 FRI 06Z 07-MAY 10.0 6.9 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 557 545 FRI 12Z 07-MAY 10.8 8.8 13 0.01 0.01 0.00 553 543 FRI 18Z 07-MAY 13.8 9.7 61 0.15 0.12 0.03 554 544 SAT 00Z 08-MAY 9.7 7.4 13 0.12 0.07 0.06 554 541 SAT 06Z 08-MAY 6.7 3.3 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 553 539 SAT 12Z 08-MAY 5.3 1.6 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 555 539 And from what I can tell a longer threat as well it seems. I will be curious if it keeps this on the next run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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