SACRUS Posted May 6, 2021 Share Posted May 6, 2021 gorgeous day today despite being cooler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 6, 2021 Share Posted May 6, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Parts of TX and FL are likely up there. Cheaper living, lots of land. less taxes and nice weather will do that! Nice weather is open to debate. All get ridiculously hot. Florida has cat 5 potential and Texas ef5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted May 6, 2021 Share Posted May 6, 2021 61 here under a clear sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 6, 2021 Share Posted May 6, 2021 enjoying the cool chilly nights and using a heater on... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 6, 2021 Share Posted May 6, 2021 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Parts of TX and FL are likely up there. Cheaper living, lots of land. less taxes and nice weather will do that! The Austin/San Antonio areas are absolutely exploding. I lived there 5 years ago and without improved infrastructure and accommodations for the accelerated growth, they're in for some hurt. The congestion in Austin is already bad enough, and little mass transit for nearly a million people other than two light rail lines and bus. For vehicles it's MoPac Expressway and I-35 for main thoroughfares, and both are constantly backed up. Weatherwise, April/early May are the best severe weather times there, and it can be good. I had several tornado warnings and many severe warnings. EF1 went maybe 2 miles from me once, other times 75 mph straight line winds and golf ball hail. The best tornado area is Waco on north in TX. May and October can be very wet. May 2015 was crazy in Austin for how much rain there was, 20" that month I believe. October 2015 had the heaviest rain I've ever seen (even the pre-Irene 2011 rain event here) from the Hurricane Patricia remnants off the Pacific. Winter is changeable but generally add 10-15 degrees from this area for what you get there. Despite the insane snow/ice this winter, when I was there we had one morning with some sleet and ice that was a minor glaze, that was it. Summer is atrociously hot and humid, most days in late July/Aug are near or over 100 before heat index. You're close enough to the Gulf for the humidity and inland enough for the higher actual highs. Also it's generally dry in the summer, the afternoon T-storms often fire closer to the gulf. The nice months are the winter months when you can get a warm airmass, and Oct-Nov/March. Landwise, plenty for sure in TX but it quickly goes from suburban/exurban not far from Austin downtown (like 10 miles) to nothing (and I mean nothing not even a town) west of there on Rt 71 or 290. Awesome people watching, very friendly/laid back vibe, great events such as SBSW/Austin City Limits and plenty of good jobs but not so much in my industry now. Living costs however are skyrocketing (part of the problem with exploding population). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 Tomorrow will be another partly sunny, but somewhat cooler day. The weekend will start off variably cloudy and unseasonably cool. Showers and even a thundershower are possible. Generally somewhat cooler than normal to near normal temperatures with perhaps a day or two of much below normal readings will likely continue at least into the middle of next week. Such cool shots have often occurred with a cold ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly, as is currently the case. As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in comination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was +32.04 today. That was the highest figure since December 31, 2020 when the SOI was +32.12. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.544 today. On May 4 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.987 (RMM). The May 3-adjusted amplitude was 3.395 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 the Summers are getting warmer mostly due to warmer nightime lows...The average warmest 30 days went up sharply in the 2010's...these are the averages since 1930... warmest 30 day period... 1930-39.....78.3... 1940-49.....77.7... 1950-59.....78.0... 1960-69.....77.0... 1970-79.....77.8... 1980-89.....78.7... 1990-99.....78.6... 2000-09.....77.0... 2010-19.....79.6... average......78.1 2020...........80.1... top five warmest and coolest... 1980..........82.5... 1999..........81.9... 2005..........81.8... 2010..........81.8... 2013..........81.7... ....................................... 72.7..........2000 74.4..........1992... 74.8..........2004... 74.9..........1996... 75.0..........1960/1950 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 16 hours ago, bluewave said: I did a calculation of how much warmer the new 30 yr and 15yr climate normals are in NYC than 1981-2010. Month….30yr….15yr Dec.+1.6….+2.2 Jan..+1.1….+1.7 Feb…+0.6…+0.5 Mar..+0.3…+0.7 Apr…+0.7…+1.0 May…+0.8…+1.4 Jun….+0.5…+0.6 Jul….+1.0….+1.9 Aug….+0.9….+1.0 Sep….+1.2….+1.9 Oct….+1.0….+1.9 Nov…+0.3…+0.4 Chris, can you do one for monthly rainfall patterns? That would be interesting to see too. Also can you a break down, monthly avg maxes vs monthly avg mins? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 12 hours ago, gravitylover said: Sort of but not really. The way they develop out there includes new green areas that were just beige before. These newly landscaped and grassy areas add to the RH and general cooling in the valley bringing the temps down (theoretically). we're doing green in NYC too. Glad to see it, get rid of that concrete crap and replace it with community gardens for healthier food in the food deserts too. I heard we have 65 bee farms in Manhattan, bees are doing well here because of the lack of pesticides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 7, 2021 Author Share Posted May 7, 2021 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Chris, can you do one for monthly rainfall patterns? That would be interesting to see too. Also can you a break down, monthly avg maxes vs monthly avg mins? Thanks! Our precipitation is increasing along with the temperatures. Rural, suburban, and urban sites are experiencing a faster minimum temperature rise than maximum. The maps below show the rate of change per decade. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/09/200930194912.htm Days warmed more quickly in some locations, and nights did in others -- but the total area of disproportionately greater night-time warming was more than twice as large. The study shows this "warming asymmetry" has been driven primarily by changing levels of cloud cover. Increased cloud cover cools the surface during the day and retains the warmth during the night, leading to greater night-time warming. Whereas, decreasing cloud cover allows more warmth to reach the surface during the day, but that warmth is lost at night. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/us-trends/tmin/ann 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 57degs.(49/65), or +4.0. Still no warmup till at least after mid-month. EURO still trying to reach 70 over the next 10 days. 52*(48%RH) here at 6am, m clear. 55* by 8am. Reached 64* around 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 46 here this AM, RH @ 51% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 Morning thoughts... It will be partly cloudy and pleasant today. Temperatures will likely reach the middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 67° Philadelphia: 67° It will be mainly cloudy and unseasonably cool tomorrow. Showers and perhaps thundershowers are possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 another cold May day almost the same date as last years May record cold and snow...sometimes weather repeats it self a year later or is the exact opposite... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 7, 2021 Author Share Posted May 7, 2021 Unusual temperature pattern so far this May. Newark reached 86° during the first week of the month. Looks like our first time since 2010 with no May 8-15 follow up 80s in the forecast. Just goes to show how impressive a MJO event this was combined with lingering April blocking. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature May 1 to May 7 May 8 to 15 2021-05-07 86 ? 2020-05-07 80 86 2019-05-07 78 79 2018-05-07 94 92 2017-05-07 76 71 2016-05-07 61 77 2015-05-07 87 88 2014-05-07 78 85 2013-05-07 72 81 2012-05-07 76 84 2011-05-07 73 76 2010-05-07 90 83 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 Next 10 days looking like mainly 60s, (50s tomorrow) and an outside chance that some of the warmer spots may touch 70 or low 70s Wed (5/12) or Thu (5/13). May 18 still looks like the start of a change to higher heights / warmer temps with the following week to 10 days (end of May) perhaps featuring the opportunity for strong warmth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jllevin79 Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 On 5/5/2021 at 2:40 PM, jllevin79 said: Long time lurker during the winter months and I appreciate all the info from the folks on here. I have my daughter's bat mitzvah this Saturday and I'm wondering if anyone can give me their thoughts on outdoor festivities for Saturday after 1PM. The weather models look pretty iffy 3 days out. Bumping this because I'm a little over 24 hours out. Looking at the early 12z models it looks like maybe the rain might dodge Rockland. Is it still too early to feel any confidence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 7, 2021 Author Share Posted May 7, 2021 Models have pop up convection tomorrow under the deep upper low and cold pool. So it will be a hit or miss type affair during the day. Somebody could see the ground whitened with small hail under the steep mid-level lapse rates and low freezing level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 32 minutes ago, bluewave said: Models have pop up convection tomorrow under the deep upper low and cold pool. So it will be a hit or miss type affair during the day. Somebody could see the ground whitened with small hail under the steep mid-level lapse rates and low freezing level. all the models miss us to the southwest now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 Raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 8 hours ago, bluewave said: Our precipitation is increasing along with the temperatures. Rural, suburban, and urban sites are experiencing a faster minimum temperature rise than maximum. The maps below show the rate of change per decade. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/09/200930194912.htm Days warmed more quickly in some locations, and nights did in others -- but the total area of disproportionately greater night-time warming was more than twice as large. The study shows this "warming asymmetry" has been driven primarily by changing levels of cloud cover. Increased cloud cover cools the surface during the day and retains the warmth during the night, leading to greater night-time warming. Whereas, decreasing cloud cover allows more warmth to reach the surface during the day, but that warmth is lost at night. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/us-trends/tmin/ann Major problems for the Southwest if those precip trends continue, and they’re in another severe drought this year. I read that an official water shortage may be coming soon for parts of NV and AZ because of low water levels on the Colorado River and lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 9 hours ago, bluewave said: Our precipitation is increasing along with the temperatures. Rural, suburban, and urban sites are experiencing a faster minimum temperature rise than maximum. The maps below show the rate of change per decade. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/09/200930194912.htm Days warmed more quickly in some locations, and nights did in others -- but the total area of disproportionately greater night-time warming was more than twice as large. The study shows this "warming asymmetry" has been driven primarily by changing levels of cloud cover. Increased cloud cover cools the surface during the day and retains the warmth during the night, leading to greater night-time warming. Whereas, decreasing cloud cover allows more warmth to reach the surface during the day, but that warmth is lost at night. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/us-trends/tmin/ann Thanks, when will we get to the point where cloud cover wont matter and warming will accelerate to the point that we'll have several 100 degree days each year? I heard that might happen by 2050 and we'll have an Atlanta type of climate by then. At some point carbon dioxide and methane forcing will break the cap that clouding provides and we'll enter new territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 2 hours ago, psv88 said: Raining .02" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 21 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Major problems for the Southwest if those precip trends continue, and they’re in another severe drought this year. I read that an official water shortage may be coming soon for parts of NV and AZ because of low water levels on the Colorado River and lakes. Lake Mead wont be able to provide water after a few more years....it'll probably happen by 2030. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 10 hours ago, uncle W said: another cold May day almost the same date as last years May record cold and snow...sometimes weather repeats it self a year later or is the exact opposite... I wonder how cold tomorrow will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I wonder how cold tomorrow will be NYC got into the low 30's last May...A standard recprd low with the lowest 34 degree temp for so late in the season...it was the first time since 1978 NYC got below 40 in May...years since 1960 that had temps below 40 in May...it happened seven times in 16 years...then it took 42 years for it to happen again... 1963...38... 1966...36... 1967...39... 1970...38... 1976...38... 1977...36... 1978...38... 2020...34... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 The weekend will start off variably cloudy and unseasonably cool. Showers and even a thundershower are possible. However, the afternoon could be fairly dry. Temperatures will likely remain in the 50s in New York City and Newark. Generally somewhat cooler than normal to near normal temperatures with perhaps a day or two of much below normal readings will likely continue at least into the middle of next week. Such cool shots have often occurred with a cold ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly, as is currently the case. As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in comination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was +22.69 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.013 today. On May 5 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.740 (RMM). The May 4-adjusted amplitude was 2.987 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.0° (1.2° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 56degs.(49/63), or about -6.0. GFS back with the 90's during Week 3. Some 80's with a 90 thrown in occurring 5/17-23 is all but certain by the Ens. 51*(75%RH) here at 6am , thin overcast. 56* by 11am. Back down to 52* by 1pm. 50* at Midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 Morning thoughts... At 8:15 a few showers were moving through parts of the region. In the Cartland area, some snow was reported. Today will be partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers. It will be unseasonably cool. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 57° Newark: 58° Philadelphia: 60° Tomorrow will be partly to mostly cloudy. Showers and a period of rain are likely especially late in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 On 5/7/2021 at 1:12 AM, LibertyBell said: we're doing green in NYC too. Glad to see it, get rid of that concrete crap and replace it with community gardens for healthier food in the food deserts too. I heard we have 65 bee farms in Manhattan, bees are doing well here because of the lack of pesticides. The green out there has nothing to do with food (or environmentally wise aspects), it's lawns, non native landscaping and golf courses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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