bluewave Posted May 3, 2021 Author Share Posted May 3, 2021 Looks like some heavy downpours tonight with the elevated convection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 wouldn't surprise me if the coastal came back-we're in that range where the models lose it...then it comes back in a day or two... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 I was hoping it would actually rain today, the pollen on the cars is terrible. That blob on the radar is a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 11 minutes ago, gravitylover said: I was hoping it would actually rain today, the pollen on the cars is terrible. That blob on the radar is a tease. just a a couple sprinkles reaching the ground here from time to time-the airmass is still dry....we should get some rains next 2 days of out this.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 Better transmit a MAYDAY on the next 10 days of this month. As mentioned earlier, only a small % of the possible sunshine for the next 10 is likely, and most of it consumed on May 06. Solar Summer starts May 08 at this latitude----so let's get to it. Want to worry about wind gusts?-----some 40+mph could happen May 10 as winds flip from S to N. May 10 onced showed 18C 850mb T, but has since mellowed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 another comfortable weather week in terms of temps for the nyc area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 Tomorrow will likely be very warm, especially from Philadelphia southward. Wednesday will likely also be warm, though not to the extent of tomorrow. A push of noticeably cooler air is likely late in the week. Such cool shots have often occurred when with a cold ENSO Region 1+2 region (-1.0°C in the latest weekly data). As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in comination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was -12.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.613 today. On May 1 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 3.621 (RMM). The April 30-adjusted amplitude was 3.486 (RMM). The May 1 amplitude of 3.621 is the highest amplitude on record for Phase 1. The prior record was 3.602, which was set on October 18, 2011. The prior May record was 2.822, which occurred on May 18, 1991. In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 plenty of moisture moving in to support a rainy night for most of us, plus a bonus TOR warning in Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 19 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: plenty of moisture moving in to support a rainy night for most of us, plus a bonus TOR warning in Maryland. yep warm front right on the M/D line. lots of rain to the north of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 Baseball size hail severe warning for San Antonio. They were just hit last week by similar storms. TX getting slammed this severe season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 Absolutely pouring out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 WHERE HAVE ALL THE 80's GONE? GONE TO PHASE 1 ----- EVERY ONE. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 31 minutes ago, CIK62 said: WHERE HAVE ALL THE 80's GONE? GONE TO PHASE 1 ----- EVERY ONE. The time to look for 80s—probably multiple days—will probably be during the May 20-31 period. The pattern often snaps into a very warm one a few weeks after an exceptionally strong MJO passage through Phase 1. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 a few rumbles of thunder and now an absolute deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 Raining heavy right now in Brooklyn On and off all evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 1 hour ago, TriPol said: Absolutely pouring out. Same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 Picked up 0.43" of rain for the day. Current temp 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 Pouring in nw Suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 Picked up 0.24" of rain so far today. Two day total so far 0.67" Current temp 53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 .70” since yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 57degs.(49/65), or -3.0. No 80's showing till near May 18. No 850mb T pops. EXT. ENS. looks boring into first week of June. Yikes. Pockets of warmth in the stratosphere are controlling the show. Why didn't the models know this sooner? 53*(95%RH) here at 6am, overcast, streets wet-----rain ended by 4am. 58* by 9am. 62* by Noon. 69* by 3pm. 71* at 3:30pm. M. Sunny for last 90mins. Back to 62* by 6pm. 59* by 7pm. 55* by 11pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 11 hours ago, bluewave said: The latest EPS weeklies are above normal on the rainfall through May 17th. May 3-10 May 10-17 About time. Last nights rains were definitely beneficial. Soil moisture has really been dropping as new plantings I have done we’re starting to wilt with irrigation not on yet for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 Morning thoughts... It will be variably cloudy and warmer than yesterday. Some showers remain possible, especially in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Temperatures will likely reach the lower 70s in the northern Middle Atlantic region to the lower 80s in southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 72° Newark: 74° Philadelphia: 83° After mid-week, a period of generally cooler than normal temperatures will develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 4, 2021 Author Share Posted May 4, 2021 9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: The time to look for 80s—probably multiple days—will probably be during the May 20-31 period. The pattern often snaps into a very warm one a few weeks after an exceptionally strong MJO passage through Phase 1. Interesting how the first 90° date at Newark remains unchanged around May 20th since 1971. But the date of the first 80° has moved up from April 27 to March 31. So a late month warm up would match the MJO progression and the longer term trends. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: The next 8 days are averaging 57degs.(49/65), or -3.0. No 80's showing till near May 18. No 850mb T pops. EXT. ENS. looks boring into first week of June. Yikes. Pockets of warmth in the stratosphere are controlling the show. Why didn't the models know this sooner? 53*(95%RH) here at 6am, overcast, streets wet. Yeah so weird how late June average temperatures aren't showing up in early May. 27 minutes ago, bluewave said: Interesting how the first 90° date at Newark remains unchanged around May 20th since 1971. But the date of the first 80° has moved up from April 27 to March 31. So a late month warm up would match the MJO progression and the longer term trends. I also imagine that it's just a lot harder to hit 90 vs 80 especially earlier in the year. We've seen the averages go up a lot especially mins but the extreme highs are still hard to come by because there's likely a limit to how far we could go at least for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 This may as currently modeled could see a similar progression to 2016 where the first 2 weeks plus featured days that were cooler than normal and generally had highs low low 70s or below. Then surge of heat by the 22nd or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 Clouds in the way today as front south of prior projections. Still, with enough sun later this PM could see a surge to near 80 in CNJ up to EWR. Not sure how much clearing we get though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 17 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Clouds in the way today as front south of prior projections. Still, with enough sun later this PM could see a surge to near 80 in CNJ up to EWR. Not sure how much clearing we get though. yeahs warm fronts always have trouble this time of year-seems models underestimate the still cold Atlantic.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 22 hours ago, Brian5671 said: wouldn't surprise me if the coastal came back-we're in that range where the models lose it...then it comes back in a day or two... 0 81" two-day total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 .41" here. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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