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bluewave
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How the T breakdown at 4pm. looked.       Only reached 72* so far (4:30pm) here in CI:

1622059200-jnHOYGn20ek.png

So will the line of TS's hold up?   A few hours to go before it gets here, unless somethings spikes up ahead.

1622060760-gu6imSWzVDA.png

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Newark taking the lead on the early season heat since the weekend. High of 94 after reaching 96 on Saturday. Last few years it was usually LGA in the lead for these warm ups.

 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
433 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2021

...................................

...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MAY 26 2021...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1893 TO 2021


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         94    259 PM  96    1965  75     19       77       
  MINIMUM         66    500 AM  44    1967  57      9       58       
  AVERAGE         80                        66     14       68     
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Ahead of an approaching cold front, numerous locations in the East reached or exceeded 90°. Those locations included:

Allentown: 91°
Baltimore: 94° (tied record set in 1914)
Boston: 92°
Concord: 92°
Harrisburg: 92°
Hartford: 90°
Lynchburg: 93° (tied record set in 1933)
Newark: 94°
Norfolk: 97°
Philadelphia: 92°
Richmond: 95° (old record: 94°, 1953, 1984, and 1991)
Roanoke: 93°
Scranton: 91°
Sterling, VA: 92° (tied record set in 2007)
Washington, DC: 91°

90° Days for Select Cities (through May 26):

Albany: 0 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 2 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 3 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 2 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 1 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 2 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 2 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 2 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 1 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 2 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 0 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 0 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 4 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 3 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 2 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 4 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 2 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 2 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

Newark has now had 4 days on which the temperature rose to 90° or above in May. New York City's Central Park has none. Should Central Park fail to record a 90° day, that will break the record for most 90° days at Newark when Central Park had none during the month of May. The previous record was 3 days at Newark, which was set in 1985 and tied in 1999. Newark's 4 90° days are the most in May since 2018 when Newark also registered 4 such days.

Parts of New York State, southern New England, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania will likely see a thunderstorm this evening. Some of the thunderstorms could be severe.

Tomorrow will become fair, but will remain warm for the season. However, cooler air will arrive late in the day and at night. Much of the remainder of the month will likely see cooler to occasionally much cooler than normal conditions. A warming trend could commence as May comes to a close.

The Memorial Day weekend will likely be unsettled and cooler. Periods of rain are possible. Rainfall will likely total 0.50"-1.50" with some locally higher amounts during the weekend.

The first 7-10 days of June could start off warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. The latest EPS guidance favors warmer than normal conditions in the Northeast through at least the first 10 days of June.

Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around May 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +0.25 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.073 today.

On May 24 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.570 (RMM). The May 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.651 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.8° (0.6° above normal).

 

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